Review and evolution
NZD/USD has added 200 points since the beginning of the month against a backdrop of NZ positive statistics. US NFPR weak May's data allowed the price to break a resistance level of 0.6860 (23,6% Fibonacci retracement to the pair's global decline from 0.8800 that started in July 2014, and ЕМА50 on the weekly chart).
NZD/USD remains in an upward channel with the upper border at 0.7135 in the weekly chart.
On Friday the USD skidded around the whole market (except for GBP/USD). However, dollar pairs are correcting on Monday. OsMA and Stochastic indicators are moving to sellers' side on H4 charts. With a support level of 0.6860 broken, the NZD/USD pair may continue declining. RBNZ may act as a driver of decline if NZ interest rate drops on Wednesday. In this case, once support levels of 0.6795 (ЕМА200 in the daily chart) and 0.6765 (ЕМА144) are broken, the pair may resume a downtrend with targets at 0.6400, 0.6300 (troughs of the year 2015).
An alternative scenario suggests a breakout of resistance levels at 0.6980 and 0.7050 (May's and April's peaks, ЕМА200 on the monthly chart) with a further growth to 0.7100, 0.7135, and 0.7240 (38,2% Fibonacci).
Support levels: 0.6860, 0.6795, 0.6765, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6610, 0.6560
Resistance levels: 0.6980, 0.7050
SellStop at 0.6900. Stop-Loss at 0.6940. Take-Profit at 0.6860, 0.6800, 0.6765, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6610, 0.6560, 0.6400
Buy Stop at 0.6960. Stop-Loss at 0.6910. Take-Profit at 0.6980, 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7240
Trading in upward channel
Breakout at 0.6860 required