Overview and dynamics
Disappointing NFPR data for May released last Friday collapsed the dollar across the currency market. EUR/USD pair strengthened on Friday by more than 210 points, having regained more than half the previous month's losses.
EUR/USD pair broke through the important resistance levels 1.1180 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart), 1.1285 (23.6% Fibonacci level of correction to the last downward wave since 2014 highs) and shows no signs of a possible decline. However, the upward momentum gained from NFPR seems to be fading. In this regard, it is worth paying attention to two daily doji candlesticks on Monday and Tuesday.
Since the opening of the day EUR/USD has strengthened by slightly more than 15 points.
OsMA and Stochastic demonstrate a contradictory picture on the 4-hour, daily, and weekly charts. If on the daily chart the indicators are on the side of buyers, on the 4-hour and weekly charts, according to the indicators, the situation looks more like a flat.
No strong news drivers for EUR/USD are expected until the end of the week. It is worth, perhaps, to pay attention to the data on German trade balance in April (published on Thursday 09:00 GMT 2), and consumer and wholesale price indices in Germany in May (published Friday 09:00 GMT 2), which can cause volatility in euro pairs.
Break of the resistance level 1.1430 will send the pair to the levels 1.1485, 1.1500, 1.1615 (May and year highs), with the prospect of growth to the levels 1.1700, 1.1785 (38.2% Fibonacci level), 1.1900 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).
Break of the support level 1.1285 will create the conditions for declining to the support level 1.1180 and will increase the risks of returning to a downward trend (after the breakdown of support levels 1.1100 (May lows), 1.1060 (the lower limit of the new downward channel formed on the daily chart)).
However, it is more likely that before the Fed meeting on June 15 EUR/USD pair will be in the range between the levels 1.1285, 1.1430.
Support levels: 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1270, 1.1180, 1.1100, 1.1060
Resistance levels: 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1485, 1.1535, 1.1615
Sell Stop 1.1320. Stop-Loss 1.1350. Targets 1.1285, 1.1270, 1.1210, 1.1180, 1.1100, 1.1060
Buy Stop 1.1410. Stop-Loss 1.1370. Targets 1.1430, 1.1485, 1.1500, 1.1535, 1.1600
2 dodji candlesticks
A flat is more likely