Review and evolution
Since the beginning of June the USD/CHF pair has lost over 340 points, dipping 3.5%, which has canceled out the previous month's growth. Amid fundamental factors, the downtrend turns out to be clear-cut.
The pair came close to powerful support levels at 0.9580 (ЕМА50 on the monthly chart, ЕМА200 and ЕМА144 on the weekly chart) and 0.9520 (0% Fibonacci retracement or lower levels of the last global descending wave since December 2015 and from a level of 1.0300).
The lower line of a wide upward channel on the daily chart crosses the 0.9600 point.
The price can still drop to 0.9520 but this may be a short-term decline and caution therefore is required when opening short positions close to this level. On the H4 and daily charts, Stochastic has been in the oversold zone since the beginning of the week. OsMA is located near the zero line on the H4 chart, which speaks of a forthcoming upward correction.
A retracement from a level of 0.9580 is quite possible too.
The publication of initial jobless claims for the past week (today at 14:30, GMT 2) may act as a news driver. If the data prove to be better than a forecast of 270,000 claims, investors may regard May's disappointing labour market statistics from the USA published on Friday to be temporary, and the US dollar may sharply consolidate in the currency market, including the USD/CHF pair. Also, the pair may grow to levels 0.9705 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), 0.9780 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the daily chart), and 0.9820 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement).
If a breakout of the resistance level at 0.9820 happens, the upward correction will continue to levels 0.9910, 1.0000 (61,8% Fibonacci retracement), and higher.
A breakout of a support level of 0.9500 will drive the pair to much lower levels of 0.9445 and 0.9160 (May's and June's troughs 2015).
Support levels: 0.9580, 0.9520, 0.9500, 0.9445
Resistance levels: 0.9600, 0.9705, 0.9780, 0.9820
Buy Stop 0.9610. Stop-Loss 0.9570. Targets: 0.9650, 0.9700, 0.9780
Sell Stop 0.9570. Stop-Loss 0.9610. Targets: 0.9500, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9200
Correction about to happen
Powerful support level at 0.9580