Review and evolution
Several fundamental factors allowed Brent oil prices to add more than 3 dollars since the beginning of the month by breaking out an important resistance level of 50.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement to the decline from 65.30 to the lows of the year 2016 near 27.05), and reach 10-month highs near a level of 52.80.
Despite a correction that started on Thursday, a positive impetus still persists.
The price is growing within an upward channel on the daily chart with the upper border at about 55.00 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart).
OsMA and Stochastic indicators have been remaining on buyers' side on the weekly chart since mid-February.
If the price steadies at the current levels, it may reach the levels at 54.00 (August and October peaks, 2015) and 55.00 as early as next week, unless FED raises the interest rate at a meeting on 15th June.
A strong growth above 55.00 is hardly possible before Fed's July meeting. An oversupply of oil and increasing production volumes will be high on the agenda again once oil supply outages are sort out or offset against larger supplies from other regions. None of the world's big oil producers is willing to cut production or cede their market share.
An alternative scenario suggests a reversion below a psychologically important level of 50.00. If a downward movement develops, a consecutive breakout of support levels at 47.60 (April peaks), 46.20 (50% Fibonacci retracement and ЕМА50 on the weekly chart), 45.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), and 44.00 (ЕМА1444) will roll Brent oil back down.
Consolidation below 41.70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) will provoke a further decline to 36.05 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), and 30.00.
Support levels: 51.00, 50.70, 50.00, 48.30, 48.00, 47.60, 46.20, 45.00, 44.00, 42.50, 41.70, 41.00
Resistance levels: 52.00, 52.80, 54.00, 55.00
Sell by Market Stop-Loss 51.90. Take-Profit 50.70, 50.00, 49.00, 48.30, 48.00, 47.60, 46.20, 45.00
Buy Stop 52.10 Stop-Loss 51.70. Take-Profit 52.80, 53.50, 54.00, 54.50
trading in upward channel
Indicators suggest buy-trades