Review and evolution
A few fundamental factors have allowed AUD/USD to grow this week to monthly peaks at about 0.7500. Still, the pair has been falling for the second consecutive day having broken a support level of 0.7445 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement to a descending wave which started in July 2014).
The AUD/USD is currently located near a support zone outlined by the levels 0.7400 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and 0.7380 (ЕМА144, ЕМА50).
Since the beginning of the month, the evolution of AUD/USD movement has highly correlated with the oil prices evolution. Oil and gas industry is important to the Australian economy and liquefied gaz is an important export commodity, along with ore.
OsMA and Stochastic indicators suggest short trades on the H4 chart and reverse for short trades on the daily chart as well. The price is tending to support levels of 0.7380 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart) and 0.7365 (ЕМА200 on the H4 chart).
If the price happens to steady below 0.7360, a pin bar will form on the weekly chart, which will be a reversal pattern and will probably result in the pair's further fall next week. However, much will depend on the Fed interest rate decision to be released on Wednesday, 15th June. The probability of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting is tending to zero.
This will only reinforce pressure on the RBA to cut the interest rate in Australia itself, which will put higher pressure on the Australian currency.
In case of a retracement and consolidation above 0.7500, the price will move to resistance levels of 0.7545/0.7600 and further within a wide ascending channel on the daily chart with the upper border passing close to a level of 0.8000.
Nevertheless, despite a dynamic upward correction that has been developing from the beginning of the month, the Australian currency will continue to remain under pressure for as long as it's located below 0.7445. A breakout of a support level of 0.7365 will push the pair to 0.7290, 0.7260, 0.7200, 0.7140 (May's troughs) and further down to 0.7100, 0.6975, and 0.6910.
Support levels: 0.7400, 0.7365, 0.7290, 0.7260, 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7100, 0.7000
Resistance levels: 0.7445, 0.7500, 0.7545, 0.7600
Sell by Market Stop-Loss 0.7430. Take-Profit 0.7365, 0.7300, 0.7260, 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7100, 0.7000
Buy Stop 0.7450. Stop-Loss 0.7420. Take-Profit 0.7500, 0.7545, 0.7600, 0.7720, 0.7820
Support levels: 0.7400, 0.7365
Lower border of the channel at 0.7200