Since the opening of trades this Monday, the USD trends vary. In the pair with the Pound the USD is growing, due to results of the public opinion polls before the referendum. In the other pairs the USD is falling.
The pair EUR/USD has been also growing after two- day decrease last week. However, the rise in the pair EUR/USD is likely just the correction, which follows after the previous decline. The pair remains under pressure due to fundamental factors and weak macroeconomic indicators in the Eurozone.
President of European Central Bank, Mario Draghi said on Thursday in Brussels that despite a number of incentive merasures, ranging from the negative interest rates to the bond purchase program for the amount of several trillion euros, the ECB efforts are brining only insignificant results. Inflation rate is still far below the target level of 2%. Last month the inflation rate was at the level of -0.1%.
Today, representative of the ECB and the head of the Bundesbank, Mr. Weidmann said that soft policy of the ECB is appropriate, given the weak forecasts of prices; however, the side effects from the extra soft monetary policy is increasing all the time.
Nevertheless, the ECB intends to keep interest rates in the Eurozone at the lowest level even after the completion of the QE program in the Eurozone.
Difference in the monetary policies in the U.S. and in the Eurozone will continue to be one of the main factors, among others, which prevents the rise in the pair EUR/USD.
In the absence of important news today, positive dynamics of the pair EUR/USD is likely to continue. However, starting from Tuesday, traders shall be carefull when opening long positions on the pair. Although probability of a rate hike in the US in June is very low, investors shall be prepared for the meeting of the US Fed and interest rates decision on Wednesday (20:00 GMT 2). Traders are expected to decrease short positions on US dollar.