In the absence of significant domestic news and macroeconomic data, the Canadian dollar continues to align its movement with oil prices. Canada is an exporter of oil. Oil and gas sector is the most important part of the economy of this country. Oil is an important source of export revenue for Canada and oil prices are correlated with the prices of the Canadian dollar.
After reaching new annual highs of $ 52.80 at the end of last week, the price of crude oil Brentis falling amid uncertainty of economic situation and investors’ concern about upcoming referendum on the UK's membership in the EU.
On Thursday, spot-price of oil fell almost by 4.0%, declining to 46.90 USD per barrel of crude oil Brent. US Department of Energy reported that oil inventories in the country fell by 900 000 barrels, which is less than expected. In the oil storage in Cushing oil reserves have increased by 900 000 barrels.
Since the opening of the trading session today, the price of oil is growing in the market, reaching the local lows since 9 June at support level of 47.10. However, possible negative effects, which can occur if the UK leaves the EU, restrict investors’ demand for risky assets and commodities.
Some economists believe that the pair USD/CAD is moving almost in the inversed manner with the oil prices. If the UK exits from the EU, the price of oil can drop further down and the pair USD/CAD will grow to the level of 1.3700.
Today at 14:30 (GMT 2) US macroeconomic statistics will be published, including the data on new home constructions and construction permits for May and Canadian data on consumer price index (CPI) for May. It is expected growth that this index will grow by 0.5% ( 1.6% in annual basis).
If this positive forecast proves to be correct, the Canadian dollar will strengthen and Vice versa. However, the impact of this data on the Canadian currency is likely to be short-term. Canadian dollar depends more on the dynamics of oil prices, which are meanwhile are under pressure from the concerns about possible exit of the UK from the EU. This weekend a poll of UK residents on this issue will be held. The results of this poll will have its effect on the market next week.