After the attack on a member of the British Parliament Mr. Joe Cox last Thursday, who died later in a hospital, supporters of the UK’s membership in the EU have increased.
A referendum on the UK's membership in the EU will be held on 23 June. The results of the referendum will be published on Friday, at 04:00 (GMT 2). The decision to exit the EU can cause turmoil not only in the economy of the UK and EU, but also in other parts of the world.
It may also trigger the desire to leave the EU among some other countries. First and foremost it can happen in Ireland, (as the economy of this country is closely tied to the UK), and Portugal, a troubled banking system of which can lose cheap loans from ECB.
Various polls show that the number of people who wish to exit from the UK exceeds those who want to stay in the EU. However, the situation is changing.
The results of the public pool organized by the company Survation, which became known last Sunday, showed that 45% of voters will vote for keeping UK’s membership in the EU. 42% will vote for the exit. Sunday's survey by YouGov showed that membership in the EU was supported by 44% of respondents, and 43% of respondents were going to vote for the exit. In the result of such encouraging polls, the Pound began to strengthen sharply and in the opening of the trading day on Monday, the pair GBP/USD went up. The gap at the opening was more than 110 points and the positive dynamics in the pair continues. The results of voting will be known on Friday. If there won’t be any other negative economic and political news, the pair GBP/USD can grow on this positive news until the referendum.
If the British people vote for the exit from the EU, the Pound and the British stock market can fall by over 20%, according to the head of the bank of England, Mr. Carney.
After that GDP in the country can drop, causing the increasing in unemployment and decline in the living standards in the country. Turbulence in the financial markets will be huge and long lasting in the result of the redistribution of funds.