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    Technical Overview: USDCHF, CHFJPY, NZDCHF & CADCHF

    June 30, 2016 09:15



    Failure to clear the 200-day SMA, backed by fresh sentiment that the Fed would avoid additional rate-hikes during 2016, dragged the USDCHF towards re-testing 100-day SMA level, at 0.9755, which is adjacent to 0.9700 support mark. If the present negativity drags the pair below 0.9700, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of November 2015 – May 2016 downside, near 0.9650, followed by 0.9620 and 0.9575, are likely downside numbers that could be witnessed on the chart. However, pair's bounce from the current level, coupled with a close above 38.2% Fibo level of 0.9780, can again propel the pair to challenge 0.9820 and the 200-day SMA mark of 0.9845. Should the pair manages to close above 0.9845, a five-month old descending trend-line resistance of 0.9870, near to the 50% Fibo level of 0.9885, might restrict its further north-run. If at all the pair surpasses 0.9885, it becomes capable enough to see 0.9950-55 resistance-zone.


    Alike all other JPY pairs, the CHFJPY also witnesses a bounce from its recent lows and is confronting the important support-turned-resistance. Given the pair closes above three-month old trend-channel support level of 105.30, it can aim for 107.10-15 and 107.80 during its further upside. Moreover, a sustained north-run above 107.80 can show 108.50 and the 109.00 numbers. Alternatively, a close below 105.30 can confirm the Breakout-Pullback-Continuation pattern and indicate the pair's renewed southward trajectory towards 103.50 and the recent lows of 101.80, also including the June 2013 lows. If the pair neglects the 101.80 mark, the 100.00 psychological magnet might become its next rest-point.


    Immediate ascending trend-line, connecting recent lows, indicates the NZDCHF's capacity to surpass its present month highs of 0.7007; though, 0.6975 can offer prior resistance. Should the pair clears 0.7007, the 61.8% FE of its May – June upside, near 0.7070, and the 0.7100 mark, are its following resistance-homes to watch. On the downside, a break of the mentioned trend-line support of 0.6920 can drag the pair to 23.6% Fibo level of 0.6890 and then to 0.6850 while its further decline below 0.6850 may have to clear 38.2% Fibo level of 0.6825 and the broader trend-line support around 0.6800 – 0.6795. Should the pair plunges below 0.6795, chances of its dip to 0.6725 can't be denied.


    CADCHF's break above two-month old descending trend-line resistance failed to surpass the 50-day SMA, indicating the pair's pullback to re-test the line resistance-turned-support of 0.7540. If the pair closes below 0.7540, the recent breakout gets negates and it can revisit the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of January – April upside, near 0.7510. Further, pair's drop below 0.7510 can plot 0.7465-70 before pulling it to four-month old ascending trend-line of 0.7440, which if broken can magnify the pair's south-run to 0.7350. Meanwhile, 0.7600 can continue offering strong resistance to the pair, breaking which can trigger its rally to 0.7650 and the 0.7670 resistance ahead of challenging the 0.7730-35 important horizontal region, comprising December 2015 and April 2016 highs. Should it successfully closes above 0.7735, it can quickly rise to 0.7800 round figure mark.

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