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    Technical Outlook: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY And USDCAD

    July 05, 2016 09:30



    On Tuesday, the EURUSD managed to print more than a week's high and confronts the 1.1185-90 horizontal area, which if broken can extend the pair's present up-move, as indicated by short-term ascending trend-channel, to the 1.1220-25, comprising the upper-line of the mentioned channel. However, near overbought RSI levels might restrict the pair's upside beyond 1.1225 and can trigger a pullback. Given the pair surpasses the 1.1225, it can quickly rise to 1.1300 round figure prior to challenging the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – June plunge, around 1.1350. Should the pair witnesses a pullback from current levels, 1.1115 and the 1.1090 channel support level might again come into play, breaking which chances of its fresh downside to 1.1030 & the 1.1000 mark can't be denied. Further, pair's additional weakness below 1.1000 can force it to revisit the referendum-day lows around 1.0910.


    With repeated failures to clear the nearby descending triangle resistance, coupled with renewed pessimism communicated by the BoE, the GBPUSD revisited the EU Referendum result-day lows, around 1.3115-20, indicating a fresh downside. Should the pair drops below 1.3115, also clears the 1.3100, which is more likely, the new selling pressure can drag the prices to 61.8% FE of its June 24 moves, around 1.2870; though, 1.3000 psychological magnet might act as a strong intermediate rest-point. On the upside, 1.3200 is likely immediate resistance that the pair can witness during its bounce before re-challenging the triangle resistance-line of 1.3275. If at all the pair clears the 1.3275, 1.3350, 1.3420 and the 1.3500 are expected upside numbers to see on the chart.


    USDJPY recently dropped below its short-term ascending triangle support, signaling fresh decline towards 101.30 and the 101.00 nearby supports, which if broken can further drag the prices down towards 100.70 & 99.50. Given the pair maintains the south-run below 99.50, it might not respect the June 24 lows around 98.90 and can plunge to 98.00 support. Alternatively, 102.20 and the 102.50 may hold the pair's immediate up-moves confined, breaking which 102.80 and the horizontal resistance of 103.30 (previously forming part of triangle) can restrict the pair's advances. If the pair breaks above 103.30, the 103.60, 104.10 and a month-long descending trend-line level of 104.80 can entertain the pair bulls.


    With the additional decline in Crude prices, Canada's main exports, the USDCAD surged to a week-long descending trend-channel resistance level of 1.2935, breaking which 1.2975 and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its May month upside, near 1.3015, comes into picture. Though, pair's additional north-run beyond 1.3015 can find it hard to clear the month old trend-line of 1.3075, if that's cleared the pair could rally to 1.3150-55 and then to 1.3190 – 1.3200 resistance-region. Meanwhile, pair's pullbacks from the current levels can show 1.2880 and 1.2835 supports, dipping below can drag it to channel support of 1.2800 and the two-month old ascending trend-line support of 1.2780, which if broken can trigger the pair's southward trajectory to 1.2670-65 support-area.

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