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    Burdens on the US Dollar

    Feeble Domestic Data Drags Dollar Lower

    A report earlier in the session today highlighted the flat, yet slightly downwards movement in Australian jobs, unemployment and related metrics. The 6.20% unemployment rate last month was matched by this month’s figures, while the actual number of jobs was seen to fall by 5,000. The first decline in jobs growth since April, total full time workers lost 13,900 positions according to the most recent measurements. Part of the impetus for these events could be weakness in the commodities sector in which Australia is a major player, with policymakers in the island country growing more and more concerned over inflation and jobs figures that have been slow to move. AUDUSD resistance identified at the 0.7348 level was briefly broken through earlier today with a posted 0.7350, though it lost ground later. The troubles in the currency seen in the last few days consider 0.7190 as a likely level of support.

     

    Despite estimates of UK unemployment remaining at 5.50%, the latest numbers from the country saw a decline of -0.10% to 5.40%. The Pound has reacted positively to this news and that of average earnings, which experienced 3.00% growth below 3.10% estimations. The session’s rally in the Pound ended in a 1.50% increase for the one day alone, with GBPUSD reaching a new 2-week high at 1.5493. Markets are expecting that the early part of 2016 will come with a bounce in inflation; though the numbers recently illustrated that current levels will remain subdued until the end of 2015. Consequently, the first half of 2016 is also anticipated to contain news of a hike in interest rates from the Bank of England.

     
    Low fuel prices in the United States are part of the catalyst behind the weak consumer spending that has produced dismal retail sales data; say the numbers in the latest report. The disappointing sales numbers casts a shadow on third quarter GDP hopes, and illustrates that the domestic situation in the United States mirrors the weak trade implicit in the global environment. Contrast between a potentially bad third quarter GDP print and the stellar 3.90% growth seen in the second quarter may highlight this notion bolder than any single report can. Producer prices in the country are also falling, with declines of -0.50% the steepest since January and weak PPI having the potential to pressure inflation to stay down until the end of the year. As current conditions see market participants seeking risk assets, the USD fell to peers like the dollar in New Zealand, which posted a 14-week high and 2.19% rally.
     
     

    XAGUSD Ascending Triangle Trading Opportunity

    The pervasive weakness in the US dollar has seen precious metals surge higher as increased accommodation from global central banks and rising uncertainty feeds demand for certain haven assets.  US economic data has left a lot to be desired, presenting one of the stronger reasons for the recent softness in the dollar that has propelled silver momentum higher.  The current ascending triangle formation emerging in silver has a bullish bias with the triangle pattern formed by the confluence of a prevailing uptrend and resistance at 16.800.  A close above this level would be considered a breakout trade to be accompanied by further upward momentum confirmed by an uptick in trading volumes.  A move below the uptrend line could invalidate the pattern and see silver prices reverse lower.

    Resistance: 16.180/16.380

    Support: 15.970/15.790

     

     


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