In an Oct. 11 Twitter thread, Timothy Peterson, Global Macro Manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, said there is “90% chance that Bitcoin will never again close below $11K.” Disclaimer: While he’s deadly serious, the prediction recalls the oft stated meme about the “last chance” to buy Bitcoin under $10K, which has frequently been proven wrong.
However, the analyst claims his model, which he first devised in 2017, has been more or less accurate so far. Peterson claimed to have successfully predicted the end of year prices of the cryptocurrency in the past two years. For 2018, he predicted a price of $3,500 — the actual price on Dec. 31 was $3,782, a difference of only 7%. Peterson also predicted a mid-range estimate of $7,000 for the end of 2019. The recorded price of Bitcoin was $7,243 on that day.
Using these methods, the analyst estimates Bitcoin (BTC) will be valued at $100,000 by January 2024 and $1 million by March 2028. He also issued a very specific prediction about the exact price on November 30 to naysayers who doubt the accuracy of his model:
Peterson’s “lowest price forward” model is a competitor to the most popular Bitcoin valuation model, stock-to-flow (S2F), created by Crypto Twitter user PlanB, that predicts a Bitcoin price of $288,000 by the next halving.
However, ByteTree co-founder and chief investment officer Charlie Morris recently authored a report attempting to debunk the S2F model. Morris argues that since Bitcoin’s supply is fixed, the demand is more likely to determine the price, and pointed out the economic role of Bitcoin miners is diminishing over time. “There are many reasons why the price of Bitcoin can rise or fall,” said Morris. “But S2F is not one of them.”