However, what’s next for Bitcoin as the futures expiration (Friday) most likely will cause short-term volatility? The daily chart is showing a clear downtrend since $12,400. The fakeout above $12,000 marked the end of an uptrend with a clear rejection of the $12,000 level as confirmation. As the chart shows, constant lower highs are fabricated, initiating that the price is in bearish modus since this peak high. First of all, the $12,000 level was confirmed for resistance, and after that, the $11,100 area flipped from support to resistance. Given that the current trend is down, a further downward drop is looking more likely after $10,000 to make another lower low. The next support level can then be the CME gap at $9,600, which is still unfilled.
The CME chart shows the gap that’s still unfilled. As the majority of the CME gaps get filled, it’s also likely to expect a close of this CME gap in the future. The primary scenario for the weakness across assets is the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Globally, concerns and fear for another round of lockdowns due to the coronavirus caused the markets to pull back.
Commodity, crypto, and equity markets have been showing weakness in recent weeks, with investors flowing into “safe havens,” namely the U.S. dollar. However, as the USD is fighting a potential resistance level, a correction is now likely. Bitcoin and other assets might see a relief rally if the USD corrects.
After a big impulse move, consolidation and accumulation take a long time before a new impulse move can start. As the recent one occurred in August (from $10,000 to $12,400), it’s likely to expect several months of sideways consolidation before new fireworks may occur.