“We expect a clear signal for action in December coming from the meeting,” writes Dirk Schumacher of Natixis in a note from last week. “The risk to the recovery is rising again and latest inflation data have disappointed undershooting again staff projections. All this should clear the way for an increase of the PEPP in December.” The PEPP is the ECB’s pandemic emergency purchase program, first instituted in March.
Economic data is deteriorating once again, with the Flash PMI for the Eurozone hitting a four-month low. “The survey revealed a tale of two economies, with manufacturers enjoying the fastest growth since early-2018 as orders surged higher amid rising global demand, but intensifying COVID-19 restrictions took an increasing toll on the services sector, led by weakening demand in the hard-hit hospitality industry,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.
Lockdown measures are getting reintroduced across Europe and the somewhat optimistic economic picture that ECB President Christine Lagarde previously painted at the last ECB policy meeting in September has darkened considerably. That is why most economists do expect action in December. ECB executive board member Philipp Lane, the mastermind behind the pandemic crisis measures, is said to be a friend of “package solutions”, which might be deployed again at the next meeting.
The Federal Reserve in the United States has undertaken a similar assessment and announced in late August that it would be allowing inflation to run above its target of 2% for “some time.” This means that the central bank will be less likely to increase interest rates — a move that has wide implications for financial markets and the everyday consumer.