https://www.gurutrade.com/news/economic/rss/ In this section gathered the recent economic events that have a strong influence on the currency market. Sun, 03 May 2026 05:13:24 +0300 50 en https://www.gurutrade.com/news/spain-s-sabadell-completes-sale-of-uk-s-tsb-to-santander-1777659900.html MADRID, May 1 Reuters Spain39;s Sabadell said on Friday it had completed the sale of British bank TSB to Santander for a total of around 3.3 billion euros 3.87 billion. The amount includes the 2.65 billion pound purchase price, about 3.05 billion euros, plus 213 million pounds, some 240 million euros, in value generated by TSB in the months leading up to the close of the deal, which was announced in July. Sabadell, Spain39;s fourthlargest listed bank by market value, said completion of the deal would allow it to book a capital gain of around 300 million euros and generate more than 400 basis points of capital. Following regulatory approvals, Sabadell will also be able to distribute a special dividend of 0.50 euro per share to shareholders on May 29, the bank said in a statement. Santander, the euro zone39;s biggest bank by stock market value, said in July that the transaction would help it become the thirdlargest bank in Britain when ranked by personal current account balances. 1 0.8524 euros Reporting by Graham Keeley and Jesús Aguado; Editing by David Goodman and Alexander Smith Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/spain-s-sabadell-completes-sale-of-uk-s-tsb-to-santander-1777659900.html Fri, 01 May 2026 06:30:39 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/financial-firms-didn-t-expect-boe-rate-hike-last-month-boe-1777654901.html LONDON, May 1 Reuters Financial firms surveyed by the Bank of England last month did not expect the central bank to raise interest rates this year, though they no longer expected rates to be cut, according to a poll released by the BoE on Friday. The BoE39;s quarterly Market Participants Survey, conducted from April 1517, showed a median expectation for Bank Rate at the end of 2026 to be 3.75, versus an expectation three months earlier for it to be cut to 3.25. By contrast, interest rate futures are currently priced to show at least two quarterpoint rate increases this year. The poll also showed expectations for BoE quantitative tightening were unchanged at 50 billion pounds 68.01 billionfor the next 12month period running from October 2026 to September 2027. 1 0.7352 pounds Reporting by David Milliken Editing by William Schomberg Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/financial-firms-didn-t-expect-boe-rate-hike-last-month-boe-1777654901.html Fri, 01 May 2026 02:20:16 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-mortgage-approvals-rise-to-4-month-high-boe-data-shows-1777630304.html LONDON, May 1 Reuters British lenders approved the most mortgages in four months in March while consumer lending grew at the fastest annual rate in over two years, according to Bank of England data which showed some resilience in the economy at the start of the Iran war. The number of mortgages approved for house purchase a leading indicator for home sales rose to 63,531 in March from 62,708 in February, the highest number since November and bucking economists39; expectations in a Reuters poll for a fall. Friday39;s data also showed net unsecured lending to consumers rose by 1.895 billion pounds 2.58 billion in March, slightly less than in February but above economists39; forecast of a 1.75 billion pound increase, and representing the fastest annual credit growth since January 2024 at 8.9. A drop in consumer confidence since the start of the Iran war and the prospect of higher mortgage rates have caused property surveyors and mortgage lender Halifax to report falling prices and lower buyer demand in March. But figures from Nationwide Building Society released earlier on Friday showed house prices continuing to rise modestly in April, increasing by 3.0 from the same month in 2025. Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, questioned how long the trend would continue. If the BoE raised borrowing costs as markets expect, the interest rate on a new twoyear fixedrate mortgage at 75 loantovalue looked set to rise to 4.8 in the coming months, up from 4.5... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-mortgage-approvals-rise-to-4-month-high-boe-data-shows-1777630304.html Fri, 01 May 2026 12:30:16 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-house-prices-rise-in-april-despite-iran-war-nationwide-1777625656.html LONDON, May 1 Reuters British house prices unexpectedly rose for a fourth month in a row in April, despite headwinds to consumer confidence from conflict in the Middle East, mortgage lender Nationwide Building Society said on Friday. House prices rose 0.4 in April after a 0.9 increase in March, in contrast to economists39; expectations in a Reuters poll for a 0.3 drop. Prices were 3.0 higher than a year earlier, faster than the expected 2.2 growth. Despite the uncertainty caused by developments in the Middle East and the subsequent rise in energy prices, the UK housing market has continued to regain momentum following the slowdown recorded around the turn of the year, Nationwide chief economist Robert Gardner said. This is somewhat surprising given that indicators of consumer confidence have weakened noticeably, he added. Financing costs driving British mortgage rates have risen since the start of the Iran war to their highest since late 2024 and consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest since 2023, according to GfK39;s longrunning survey. Property surveyors reported weaker buyer demand in March and the broadest decline in house prices since January 2024. Gardner said demand for now appeared to be supported by strong household finances debt levels are the lowest relative to income in around 20 years and by household income growth having outpaced house prices in recent years. Rival mortgage lender Halifax had reported a 0.5 fall in house prices in March.... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-house-prices-rise-in-april-despite-iran-war-nationwide-1777625656.html Fri, 01 May 2026 09:10:44 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korean-april-exports-rise-48-0-y-y-as-chip-boom-extends-1777641172.html Semiconductor and computerrelated exports surge, offsetting weaker autos and higher energy costs Exports to China and the U.S. rise sharply, led by strong chip demand Preliminary trade surplus reaches 23.77 billion SEOUL, May 1 Reuters South Korean exports rose for an 11th month in April, beating forecasts, as the global appetite for artificial intelligence infrastructure boosted semiconductor sales to offset jitters from the Middle East conflict. Exports from Asia39;s fourthlargest economy, a bellwether for global trade, jumped 48.0 from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, exceeding a median 45.3 increase forecast in a Reuters poll. Semiconductor exports rose 173 from a year earlier, buoyed by rising contract prices for memory chips, the industry ministry said in a statement. Shipments of petroleum products rose 40 on higher crude prices, while computerrelated exports also soared 516, driven by strong demand for solidstate drives amid the AI boom. Automobile exports fell 5.5 from a year earlier, weighed down by the Middle East tensions and expanding U.S. car production, the ministry said. Exports of electric and hybrid vehicles, however, rose 23 and 9, respectively. By country, South Korea39;s exports to China jumped 63 and those to the U.S. grew 54, both led by semiconductors. Imports increased 16.7 in April from a year ago, also outpacing a 14.5 gain tipped in the poll. The trade figures land just days after chip giants Samsung Electronics and... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korean-april-exports-rise-48-0-y-y-as-chip-boom-extends-1777641172.html Fri, 01 May 2026 08:30:25 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/mexico-gdp-falls-world-cup-key-to-economic-recovery-1777633565.html All sectors declined, with primary seeing the sharpest dip Analysts expect World Cup to aid nearterm recovery Weak GDP data could pressure central bank to cut rates MEXICO CITY, Reuters Mexico39;s economy contracted 0.8 in the first quarter from the previous threemonth period, preliminary data showed on Thursday, an unexpected slowdown ahead of the FIFA World Cup in June that analysts expect to lightly boost growth. The decline in Latin America39;s secondlargest economy was wider than the 0.5 contraction forecast from economists polled by Reuters. The economy expanded 0.9 in the prior quarter, according to final data. Nearterm momentum remains subdued, but we still anticipate a gradual recovery supported by firmer domestic demand and a modest boost from the 2026 FIFA World Cup soccer tournament, Itau chief economist Mario Mesquita said in a note. Itau estimates that the World Cup, which Mexico is cohosting along with the U.S. and Canada, will add 0.1 percentage point to Mexico39;s annual gross domestic product growth forecast at 1.1 for 2026, compared with growth in 2025 of 0.8. Still, analysts expect global trade tensions to weigh on growth and to impact decisions by the Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico. Capital Economics analysts said there is a strong case for a rate cut of 25 basis points at Banxico39;s meeting next week. In the past, disappointing GDP releases have prompted Banxico to act, they said in a note. The central bank39;s decision in... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/mexico-gdp-falls-world-cup-key-to-economic-recovery-1777633565.html Fri, 01 May 2026 07:50:54 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/mexico-holds-growth-target-but-hikes-inflation-outlook-1777632935.html MEXICO CITY, Reuters Mexico39;s finance ministry on Thursday kept its 2026 economic growth forecast unchanged, maintaining a relatively upbeat stance even after preliminary data showed the economy contracted slightly in the first quarter. In its firstquarter public finance report, the ministry held its annual GDP growth outlook at 1.8 to 2.8, despite figures released earlier in the day showing the economy likely shrank 0.8 in the quarter, a steeper drop than expected. The ministry also raised its yearend inflation forecast to 3.7 from the 3.0 estimate in the 2026 budget, signaling that price pressures are likely to remain above the central bank39;s official 3 target for longer than previously anticipated. Mexico39;s annual inflation rate eased in the first half of April, but still stood at 4.53. Finance Minister Edgar Amador said inflation expectations remained anchored, noting that in Mexico, 12month and longerterm inflation expectations remain contained. The government39;s decision to stand by its growth outlook comes as Mexico faces slowing domestic momentum and a more uncertain external environment. Amador said changes in global trade policy had hit manufacturing industries most exposed to indirect disruptions along supply chains, while also affecting consumer and business sentiment. Those changes have generated a greater degree of uncertainty that has affected both consumption and investment decisions, he said. The finance ministry forecast the average... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/mexico-holds-growth-target-but-hikes-inflation-outlook-1777632935.html Fri, 01 May 2026 07:30:42 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-keeps-rates-on-hold-and-warns-about-iran-war-hit-1777559561.html FRANKFURT, April 30 Reuters The European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold on Thursday and warned that the war in Iran was fuelling an energyled rise in euro zone inflation while taking a toll on economic activity. The central bank for the 21 countries that share the euro kept the rate it pays on bank deposits at 2, as economists expected and policymakers including President Christine Lagarde had suggested. But it sharpened a warning about the fallout from the Iran conflict, and the associated disruptions in fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz, on the euro zone39;s economy. While the incoming information has been broadly consistent with the Governing Councils previous assessment of the inflation outlook, the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified, the ECB said in a press release. The longer the war continues and the longer energy prices remain high, the stronger is the likely impact on broader inflation and the economy, it added. Inflation in the euro zone is already above the ECB39;s 2 target and is expected to rise further in the coming months while growth is showing some signs of weakness. Longerterm inflation expectations remain well anchored, although inflation expectations over shorter horizons have moved up significantly, the ECB noted. Investors expect the ECB to raise the deposit rate three times in the coming 12 months to 2.75. With Thursday39;s decision, the ECB also kept the rate at which banks can... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-keeps-rates-on-hold-and-warns-about-iran-war-hit-1777559561.html Thu, 30 Apr 2026 03:30:27 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/stagflation-risks-stacking-up-as-iran-war-enters-third-month-1777557438.html As war drags on, market stagflation worries rise Europe, parts of Asia seen as especially vulnerable US economy strong but inflation risks persist China an outlier, for now LONDON, April 30 Reuters Financial markets are finding it harder to look past the rising economic costs of the Iran war as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz prolongs the world39;s biggestever disruption to energy supplies. Two months into the conflict, the global economy faces a toxic mix of slowing growth and high inflation stagflation. Even as tech stocks lift world shares, analysts warn that the longer Hormuz remains shut, the greater the recession risk for energyimporting regions. Oil hit a fouryear high on Thursday above 120 per barrel . The probability of a recession in Europe, the UK, and parts of Asia, is higher than is priced into equity markets, said RBC BlueBay39;s head of market strategy, Mike Bell. Here is how the risks are shaping up across markets OIL WATCH Oil remains the key barometer. Brent crude is more than 65 above prewar levels, and continues to rise as the war drags on. High energy prices threaten growth by squeezing consumers and companies while fuelling inflation. Citi estimates an adverse scenario pushing Brent prices to 120 through yearend could cut global growth to between 1.5 and 2 and lift headline inflation to nearly 5. The probability of a recession in Europe, the UK, and parts of Asia, is higher than is priced into equity markets, said RBC... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/stagflation-risks-stacking-up-as-iran-war-enters-third-month-1777557438.html Thu, 30 Apr 2026 02:20:01 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/french-banks-lag-us-in-trading-as-dollar-iran-war-weigh-1777556248.html Shares in BNP, SocGen, Credit Agricole drop sharply Trading lags US rivals Weak dollar drags revenues Retail banking offsets pressures PARIS, April 30 Reuters French banks BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole landed subdued trading results on Thursday, prompting share price falls as they lagged U.S. rivals due to a weak dollar and a failure to capitalise on Iran warlinked market volatility. Overall, the French trio broadly met firstquarter market expectations, supported by resilient retail banking and cost controls, but that strength did not extend to their trading desks, where results were broadly weaker. Shares in BNP, SocGen and Credit Agricole were down by 4.5, 5.1 and 5.8 respectively at 0950 GMT as investors digested their firstquarter results. SUBDUED TRADING PERFORMANCES Unlike the French listed banks, their U.S. counterparts on Wall Street once again delivered bumper trading results, highlighting a longstanding challenge for European banks in the global investment banking business. U.S. banks continue to outpace European rivals in trading and investment banking, aided by scale, deeper capital markets and more favourable regulation. JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup  all reported sharply higher revenues from equities and fixed income trading, benefiting from heavy client activity across rates, commodities and currencies. Although BNP reported a modest increase in its trading revenues, its fixed income performance was... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/french-banks-lag-us-in-trading-as-dollar-iran-war-weigh-1777556248.html Thu, 30 Apr 2026 02:00:38 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/portugal-s-quarterly-gdp-growth-fizzles-out-after-storms-1777554123.html LISBON, April 30 Reuters Portugal39;s economy stagnated in the first quarter compared to the previous threemonth period, when it expanded 0.9, official data showed on Thursday, after severe storms and floods in January and February hit the exportheavy central region. The National Statistics Institute INE said in a statement that the contribution of net external demand to the quarteronquarter growth turned negative as imports grew more strongly than exports. By contrast, the contribution of domestic demand turned positive, with a marked acceleration in investment, benefiting from EU funds, even as private consumption slowed. INE said in its flash estimate that gross domestic product still rose 2.3 in the first quarter from the same period a year earlier. In the fourth quarter, GDP grew 1.9 yearonyear. Paulo Rosa, senior economist at Banco Carregosa, said the data showed that although Portugal39;s economy remains resilient compared with a year earlier, reflecting the positive momentum of 2025, it lost momentum at the start of 2026, pointing to a slowdown due to the storms and energy price hikes amid the Iran war. In March, the Bank of Portugal revised down its 2026 growth forecast to 1.8 from 2.3 in December, a projection the government has so far maintained. The economy grew by 1.9 last year. Rosa sees the economy growing 1.8 to 1.9 this year. Reporting by Sergio Goncalves; editing by Andrei Khalip and Ros Russell Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/portugal-s-quarterly-gdp-growth-fizzles-out-after-storms-1777554123.html Thu, 30 Apr 2026 01:00:58 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-pmi-shows-factory-growth-amid-rising-iran-war-risks-1777545549.html China39;s official manufacturing PMI expands for second straight month Export orders surge as buyers stockpile amid Iran war fears Rising energy prices threaten sustainability of exportled growth Nonmanufacturing PMI drops to 49.4, highlights fragile domestic demand BEIJING, April 30 Reuters China39;s factory activity expanded for a second straight month in April, as manufacturers cranked up production to ship goods early to buyers worried the Iran war will further inflate costs, sending new export orders to their strongest level in two years. But the escalating Middle East conflict is laying bare risks in the 20 trillion economy39;s productionled growth model, with higher energy prices likely to deter fresh orders once stockpiling fades, even as Chinese exporters enjoy a shortlived boost. The official manufacturing purchasing managers39; index PMI dipped to 50.3 from 50.4 in March, but held above the 50mark separating growth from contraction, according to a survey by the National Bureau of Statistics NBS. It beat a median forecast of 50.1 in a Reuters poll. The PMI survey39;s subindex for production expanded at a slightly faster pace while new export orders rose to 50.3, the highest since April 2024, from 49.1 in March. The subindex for raw material stockpile rose but remained in contraction. It will be interesting to see if the official trade data will confirm the resilience of exporters in coming months, said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-pmi-shows-factory-growth-amid-rising-iran-war-risks-1777545549.html Thu, 30 Apr 2026 12:40:14 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/euro-zone-inflation-soars-above-ecb-target-on-oil-prices-1777558964.html FRANKFURT, April 30 Reuters Euro zone inflation surged further in April on soaring energy costs, Eurostat data showed on Thursday, adding to the case for interest rate hikes, even if benign underlying price growth figures ease the urgency of any move. Inflation in the 21 countries sharing the euro currency jumped to 3.0 this month from 2.6 in March, moving further above the European Central Bank39;s 2 target, with energy costs accounting for the vast majority of the increase. A closely watched figure on underlying or 39;core39; inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, meanwhile slowed to 2.2 from 2.3 a month earlier. Services inflation, a stubbornly high component of the price basket over the past several years, slowed to 3.0 from 3.2 while inflation for nonenergy industrial goods, a key drag on prices picked up to 0.8. The figures are a mixed bag for the ECB, which is meeting on Thursday and will likely keep interest rates unchanged, even if it signals that policy tightening is increasingly likely. The high headline inflation print strengthens the argument for interest rate hikes but the underlying figures suggest that the initial energy shock is not yet creating major second round effects. The ECB is largely powerless against an energy shock but must step in if these second round effects become visible as they risk creating a hardtobreak selfsustaining inflation spiral. This is why investors expect the ECB to hike its 2 deposit rate already in... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/euro-zone-inflation-soars-above-ecb-target-on-oil-prices-1777558964.html Thu, 30 Apr 2026 12:20:43 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boj-warns-of-inflation-spike-in-risk-scenario-1777541084.html Risk scenario sees upgrade to inflation, cut to growth forecasts BOJ says wageinflation spiral risk not big for now Secondround effects may rise on changing corporate behaviour Upward price deviation may affect inflation expectations TOKYO, April 30 Reuters The Bank of Japan is projecting core inflation hovering around 3, well above its 2 target, for two years in a row under a risk scenario of elevated oil prices and a weakening yen, highlighting the economy39;s vulnerability to an energy shock. While BOJ said the risk of a wageprice spiral remains limited for now, it warned higher oil costs could increasingly feed through as firms more actively pass on raw material prices, a complete version of its quarterly report released on Thursday showed. The rare release of a risk scenario highlights the challenge the BOJ faces in steering further interest rate hikes as the Middle East conflict muddles the economic outlook. Economic and price developments could deviate considerably from our baseline scenario depending on the future course of the Middle East situation. It is therefore necessary to thoroughly scrutinise various risk factors more than ever, it said. The BOJ kept interest rates steady at 0.75 on Tuesday but sharply revised up its baseline inflation projections in a sign of its alarm over mounting price pressures. Under the board39;s baseline scenario released on Tuesday, the central bank said it expects the core consumer price index CPI to rise 2.8 in the... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boj-warns-of-inflation-spike-in-risk-scenario-1777541084.html Thu, 30 Apr 2026 11:30:48 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/japan-factory-output-dips-on-iran-war-petroleum-hit-1777548649.html March factory output falls 0.5, compared with forecast of 1.1 Petroleumrelated goods lead downturn, data shows Separate survey shows consumer confidence slump in April Think tank projects price hike rush as soon as this summer Data highlight dilemma BOJ faces in steering rate hikes TOKYO, April 30 Reuters Japan39;s factory output unexpectedly fell in March as production tumbled for a range of chemical and petroleumbased goods, data showed on Thursday, suggesting the Middle East conflict is beginning to harm the country39;s fragile economy. A separate government survey showed consumer confidence slumping in April in a sign that households were feeling the pinch from a rising cost of living. The data highlight the dilemma the Bank of Japan faces in its efforts to raise stilllow interest rates, as surging oil prices and supply constraints heighten inflationary pressure while weighing on an economy heavily reliant on fuel imports. Industrial production shrank by 0.5 in March from the previous month, government data showed, confounding market expectations for a 1.1 gain and marking the second straight month of declines. It followed a 2.0 drop in February. Manufacturers expect output to fall again in April, predicting a decline of 0.7 on an adjusted estimate. Along with rising costs from high crude oil prices, supply disruptions in goods like naphtha, if prolonged, would weigh heavily on factory activity, said Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus.... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/japan-factory-output-dips-on-iran-war-petroleum-hit-1777548649.html Thu, 30 Apr 2026 10:00:09 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/big-funds-bet-billions-on-mining-supercycle-1777560640.html Mining ETFs more than double to 87.4 billion in Q1, data But gold funds saw outflows as investors favour industrial metals Small metals markets amplify volatility, as sentiment shifts impact prices LONDON, April 30 Reuters Major fund managers are heralding a sustained rally in mining and metals as money floods into the sector at the fastest pace in years, driven by robust AI infrastructure, rising defence spending and a shift away from expensive tech stocks. Assets under management in mining exchangetraded funds more than doubled to 87.4 billion by March 31, from 37 billion a year earlier, data compiled by research firm ETFGI for Reuters shows. Oil gas and agriculture have also attracted significant inflows, marking one of the sharpest rotations toward hard assets in history. Investors put 8.24 billion into mining in the first quarter, a 10.8 billion turnaround in sentiment compared with the first three months of 2025 when sweeping U.S. tariffs announced by President Donald Trump triggered outflows of 2.52 billion. BlackRock portfolio manager Evy Hambro told Reuters capital is starting to rotate into hard assets from highvaluation tech stocks, calling it the early stages of a commodity supercycle. Morningstar39;s U.S. Technology Index fell 9 in the first quarter. Shares of BHP and Rio Tinto the world39;s two largest mining companies, both hit record highs this year. The material intensity of GDP is rising, Hambro said, pointing to surging capital investment in... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/big-funds-bet-billions-on-mining-supercycle-1777560640.html Thu, 30 Apr 2026 09:10:30 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-economy-resilient-but-faces-rising-risks-from-mideast-war-government-report-1777479698.html NEW DELHI, April 29 Reuters India39;s economy remains resilient but faces mounting risks from the Middle East conflict, which has disrupted supplies of energy, fertilisers and industrial raw materials, raised costs and weakened trade, the government39;s monthly economic report said on Wednesday. India enters FY202627 at the intersection of domestic resilience and external turbulence, the report said, adding that the West Asia war has altered the macroeconomic outlook following real GDP growth of 7.6 in the previous fiscal year. The government said India remained a relative bright spot, with the International Monetary Fund raising its 202627 growth forecast for the country to 6.5 from 6.4. However, it warned that risks were tilted toward higher inflation, wider fiscal and external deficits and slower growth, especially if energy and fertiliser supply disruptions persist. The report said India39;s crude oil basket averaged 113 per barrel in March and was just under 115 per barrel this month through April 24. It added higher wholesale prices showed that cost pressures were building, even though consumer inflation remained moderate. Retail inflation rose to 3.4 in March from 3.2 in February, while food inflation increased to 3.87. Wholesale inflation accelerated to 3.88 in March from 2.13 in February, reflecting rapid transmission of higher energy and commodity prices at the producer level. The risks are tilted toward persistence rather than quick reversal of the... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-economy-resilient-but-faces-rising-risks-from-mideast-war-government-report-1777479698.html Wed, 29 Apr 2026 04:40:38 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/eu-energy-plan-avoids-consumption-curbs-for-now-1777480526.html European governments avoid measures to curb energy demand Some wary that restrictions could cause panic Others argue energy conservation is best response LONDONBRUSSELS, April 29 Reuters As the energy shock from the Iran war deepens, countries around the world from Australia to Egypt are looking to conserve fuel, be it through encouraging more remote work, limiting air travel, or promoting public transport. But not with a very few timid exceptions in Europe. One reason is that the impact on the continent so far is not as severe as back in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed gas supplies to Europe, triggering recordhigh prices and fears of shortages. Another factor is how the cost of living and energy serve as political battlegrounds in a region which saw the 2018 yellow vests protests in France over a planned hike in diesel taxes, and where hardright UK politicians have railed against local schemes to reduce emissions as anticar crusades. For now, say analysts, governments are much keener to dish out money to shield households from rising fuel bills than to urge or even require them to use less energy. Demandreduction measures are kind of unpopular by essence, and policymakers might not want to dedicate too much political clout to promoting this, PhucVinh Nguyen, head of the Parisbased Jacques Delors Energy Centre, told Reuters. Of the more than 180 policy measures pursued by European governments to address the energy shock, fewer than 10 largely... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/eu-energy-plan-avoids-consumption-curbs-for-now-1777480526.html Wed, 29 Apr 2026 03:40:16 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/hyperscaler-results-pose-major-test-for-ai-driven-stocks-1777465102.html Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta reports all due after the bell Wednesday Shares of all four outperform in latest market rebound Options pricing in postearnings moves of at least 4 Soaring chip stocks could be vulnerable to AI spending commentary NEW YORK, April 29 Reuters A pivotal moment for the artificial intelligence trade driving the U.S. stock market to alltime highs arrives on Wednesday with quarterly reports from four massive companies at the heart of the investment boom behind the new technology. Results are due after the market closes from Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta Platforms  four hyperscalers expected to spend over 600 billion this year on data centers and other AIrelated infrastructure. Those heavyweight companies represent more than 10 trillion in market capitalization and 17 of the SP 50039;s weighting, while their recent gains have helped lead the market39;s rebound over the past month as stocks have shaken off concerns over the U.S.Israeli war with Iran. From a market perspective, they still are the straw that stirs the drinks on big index funds, said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services. And from an AI perspective, their spending is what is driving the profits for an awful lot of companies. The four companies are among the Magnificent Seven megacaps that have been central to the doubling of the SP 500 since the latest bull market for the benchmark index began in October 2022. Shares of the... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/hyperscaler-results-pose-major-test-for-ai-driven-stocks-1777465102.html Wed, 29 Apr 2026 02:30:41 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-s-gold-investment-demand-tops-jewellery-for-1st-time-ever-in-mar-quarter-1777478296.html MUMBAI, April 29 Reuters India39;s investment demand for gold surpassed jewellery consumption for the first time on record in the March quarter, as investors turned to the precious metal amid subdued equity market returns, the World Gold Council WGC said on Wednesday. Stronger investment demand in the world39;s secondlargest consumer of gold partly offset a decline in jewellery buying, hit by a rally in prices, helping keep overall demand stable, the WGC said. For the first time investment demand surpassed jewellery demand, Sachin Jain, chief executive of the WGC39;s Indian operations, told Reuters. Investment demand will become increasingly prominent in the coming quarters, with both financial and retail investors showing more interest in gold. Investment demand in the March quarter surged 52 from a year earlier to 82 metric tons, while jewellery demand fell 19.5 to 66 tons, the World Gold Council WGC said in a report published on Wednesday. Total gold consumption in the country rose 10.2 to 151 metric tons during the quarter, according to the data. For the first time, investment demand accounted for a larger share of total consumption than jewellery, rising to 54.3 in the quarter. Investment demand typically accounts for about a quarter of India39;s total gold consumption, but rising prices have been prompting investors to buy coins, bars, and gold exchangetraded funds ETFs. Inflows into gold ETFs jumped 186 in the March quarter from a year earlier to a record... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-s-gold-investment-demand-tops-jewellery-for-1st-time-ever-in-mar-quarter-1777478296.html Wed, 29 Apr 2026 11:10:12 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korea-april-exports-seen-rising-on-chip-boom-reuters-1777477401.html Exports forecast at 45.3 yy in April vs 49.2 in March AIled chip boom more than offsetting Iran war impact, say economists Import growth, inflation seen accelerating on oil prices SEOUL, April 29 Reuters South Korean exports likely rose in April for an 11th straight month, with a surge in chip demand driven by artificial intelligence investment more than offsetting a hit from the Middle East conflict, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday. Import growth and consumer inflation were seen quickening due to high oil prices as the conflict in the Middle East has upended energy markets. Exports from Asia39;s fourthlargest economy, a bellwether for global trade, were projected to have risen 45.3 from a year earlier, according to a median forecast of 20 economists. That would be slightly weaker than the previous month39;s increase of 49.2, which was the strongest yearonyear rise since August 1988, but still the secondfastest in the current gaining streak that started in June 2025. The tradereliant economy delivered its strongest growth in nearly six years last quarter, smashing forecasts on booming chip exports, though rising risks from the Iran war threaten to cut into the record earnings. Last week, chipmaker SK Hynix announced a record quarterly profit with a fivefold jump in its firstquarter earnings. Peer Samsung Electronics had projected earlier this month that its quarterly earnings would exceed its entire profit for last year. Exports are expected to post a fresh... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korea-april-exports-seen-rising-on-chip-boom-reuters-1777477401.html Wed, 29 Apr 2026 09:10:24 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-s-factory-activity-to-expand-slower-in-april-poll-1777472337.html BEIJING, April 29 Reuters China39;s factory activity likely grew at a slower pace in April as rising cost pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict test Beijing39;s reliance on manufacturing to underpin economic growth. The official manufacturing purchasing managers39; index PMI is expected to drop to 50.1 from 50.4 in March, according to the median forecast in a Reuters poll of 27 economists. The April PMI reading, based on a National Bureau of Statistics survey of companies and set to be released on Thursday, will offer a fresh gauge of how the world39;s secondlargest economy is faring as the U.S.Israeli war on Iran jolts energy markets and disrupts supply chains. Economic data for the first quarter suggested that spillover from the war was relatively contained, cushioned by ample strategic oil reserves, a diversified energy mix and robust global demand for Chinamade electronics. Gross domestic product grew 5 in the first three months, hitting the upper range of Beijing39;s annual growth target, despite a slowdown in goods exports in March. Profits at China39;s industrial firms grew in March at their quickest pace in half a year. The run of upbeat data has eased pressure on policymakers to rush major stimulus despite persistent weakness in domestic demand and the job market. Credit ratings agency Moody39;s echoed that view on Monday, revising China39;s outlook to stable from negative, citing resilient economic and fiscal strength. China39;s central bank... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-s-factory-activity-to-expand-slower-in-april-poll-1777472337.html Wed, 29 Apr 2026 08:30:38 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/inflation-surge-weak-growth-raise-policy-dilemma-for-ecb-1777393203.html Consumer survey points to inflation well above 2 Poll of banks shows tighter access to loans Euro zone at risk of stagflation FRANKFURT, April 28 Reuters Euro zone inflation expectations are surging on the fallout from the Iran war but economic growth is faltering, separate European Central Bank surveys showed, raising a policy dilemma as opposing forces tug the bloc in different directions. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates on hold at a meeting on Thursday but hikes are likely to be on the table at the next meeting in June as policymakers worry that an initial energyinduced price shock could linger and push up inflation over the longer term. The dilemma is that rate hikes help ease price pressure but also hit economic growth, which is already suffering from high energy, tariffs and uncertainty, raising the risk that the ECB39;s inflation fight aggravates an already precarious situation. The ECB39;s Consumer Expectations Survey showed inflation expectations for one year ahead jumped to 4.0 in March from 2.5 a month earlier while bets for three years out rose to 3.0 from 2.5, both well above the ECB39;s 2 target. But the central bank39;s quarterly Bank Lending Survey indicated lenders had tightened their criteria to approve loans by more than expected in the three months to March and expected to continue doing so this quarter. LONGER TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS BARELY MOVED The surveys come just a day after the ECB39;s own poll of businesses showed... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/inflation-surge-weak-growth-raise-policy-dilemma-for-ecb-1777393203.html Tue, 28 Apr 2026 03:10:27 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/brazil-s-public-debt-falls-for-the-first-time-in-2026-1777364334.html BRASILIA, Reuters Brazil39;s public debt dropped in March from the previous month as net bond redemptions offset an increase in interest payments, Treasury data showed on Monday. Public debt fell 2.34 from February to 8.633 trillion reais 1.73 trillion, the Treasury reported. Net debt redemptions totaled 305.4 billion reais in March, while interest payments reached 98.1 billion reais. The average cost of domestic public debt issuance, measured on a rolling 12month basis, increased to 13.92 from 13.76 in February. In Brazil, domestic public debt denominated in reais accounts for 96.2 of the total outstanding stock. 1 4.9760 reais Reporting by Isabel Versiani; Additional reporting and writing by Fernando Cardoso; Editing by Gabriel Araujo Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/brazil-s-public-debt-falls-for-the-first-time-in-2026-1777364334.html Tue, 28 Apr 2026 07:50:00 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/venezuela-us-firms-to-audit-central-bank-assets-abroad-1777363293.html CARACAS, April 27 Reuters Venezuela39;s central bank said on Monday that it and the United States have each hired firms to audit assets held abroad by the South American country, though it did not name the firms. The effort is meant to ensure impartiality, the bank said in a statement. Regarding financial resources associated with the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela held abroad... the U.S. government hired one auditing firm and the Venezuelan government another, the statement said, quoting a Friday presentation by bank President Luis Alberto Perez. Having the Republic39;s assets audited by external consultants gives us peace of mind. The country must have full confidence that resources are going where they should and reaching where they should, Perez said. Three sources in Caracas previously told Reuters that U.S. firm Deloitte had been hired to conduct an audit at the central bank, and that it will include a review of foreign currency exchange auctions and operations in gold, among other things. Deloitte did not immediately respond to a request for comment and it was unclear which country may have hired it. The Trump administration earlier this month issued a general license that allows financial transactions involving certain Venezuelan banks and Venezuelan government individuals, as it loosens some restrictions following the U.S. ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Venezuela is heading into a period of exchangerate stability and falling inflation,... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/venezuela-us-firms-to-audit-central-bank-assets-abroad-1777363293.html Tue, 28 Apr 2026 07:40:27 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/gulf-faces-worst-crisis-since-pandemic-as-war-roils-oil-1777301737.html BENGALURU, April 27 Reuters Gulf Cooperation Council GCC economies are sliding into their worst economic crisis since the pandemic, with several expected to contract this year on spillovers from the U.S.Israel war with Iran right on its doorstep. The war39;s knockon effects have ripped through the energy market the Gulf economies39; lifeline driving oil prices sharply higher and triggering a historic supply shock, drawing comparisons to the 1970s. As a result, economists slashed 2026 growth forecasts in the April 824 poll, with some countries swinging from expected growth to outright contraction. A partial rebound is due next year. Previous episodes of higher oil prices have handed an economic windfall to economies in the region, all heavily reliant on energy exports. But the neartotal closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which onefifth of global energy supply passes, along with damage to refineries and gas plants in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates UAE, Kuwait and Qatar, has nearly crippled the region39;s economies. Even with oil prices still around 40 higher than before the war erupted nearly two months ago, the economies of Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain are now expected to shrink 6.0, 4.4 and 2.9 respectively this year. That is a total reversal from growth of 4.9, 3.4 and 2.9 expected in January. Growth in the UAE is seen stagnating, compared with a 5.0 expansion predicted three months ago. We do not expect a simple return to the prewar growth path,... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/gulf-faces-worst-crisis-since-pandemic-as-war-roils-oil-1777301737.html Mon, 27 Apr 2026 05:00:51 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/indian-automakers-set-for-upbeat-quarter-mideast-hit-looms-1777294396.html Indian automakers face margin pressure due to Middle East war Iran war threatens supply chains, drives up raw material, fuel prices CLSA analysts say carmakers may need 6 price hikes to counter rising costs April 27 Reuters Automakers in the world39;s thirdlargest car market are set to report robust quarterly earnings, while bracing for the fallout from the Iran war, which threatens to upend supply chains and spike raw material and fuel prices, analysts said. Top Indian carmakers are expected to post revenue growth of about 11 to 26 in the fourth quarter, according to LSEGcompiled data, with steep tax cuts helping boost total sales to a record high in the fiscal year. Industry leader Maruti Suzuki will kickstart sectoral earnings on April 28. IN THE FAST LANE Maruti, which makes the popular compact SUV, Brezza, is expected to deliver one of its strongest quarters, supported by a richer export mix, analysts at Morgan Stanley said. The carmaker is expected to post 25.5 revenue growth, per LSEGcompiled data. For Tharmaker Mahindra Mahindra , a higher mix of electric SUVs and the price hikes taken in January are expected to support margins on a sequential basis, HDFC Securities said. However, brokerages, including HDFC Securities, expect electricvehiclerelated spending and new model launch expenses to offset recent price increases. Margins at Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles39; luxury unit Jaguar Land Rover are expected to recover sequentially as production... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/indian-automakers-set-for-upbeat-quarter-mideast-hit-looms-1777294396.html Mon, 27 Apr 2026 03:20:40 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/moody-s-sees-china-resilience-moves-outlook-to-stable-1777292460.html April 27 Reuters Credit ratings agency Moody39;s on Monday revised China39;s outlook to stable from negative, citing resilient economic and fiscal strength despite ongoing domestic pressures and challenges in trade and geopolitics. The ratings agency said export growth is likely to moderate, but China39;s competitiveness should cushion the slowdown, allowing GDP growth to ease only gradually. China39;s finance ministry said on Monday that it appreciated the agency39;s decision to maintain China39;s sovereign credit rating and upgrade its outlook, and vowed to further transform economic structure and enhance fiscal sustainability, according to a statement. China39;s industrial profits grew at their quickest pace in half a year last month, highlighting an uneven recovery with strong manufacturing but weak consumption, slowing exports and rising risks from higher costs and Middle East tensions. Moody39;s added that policies focused on highproductivity sectors and a controlled approach to resolving regional and local government debt would help improve capital efficiency, even as overall government debt rises. Reporting by Aatrayee Chatterjee in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Beijing Newsroom; Editing by Vijay Kishore and Louise Heavens Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/moody-s-sees-china-resilience-moves-outlook-to-stable-1777292460.html Mon, 27 Apr 2026 03:00:19 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-refiners-q1-profits-seen-jumping-as-war-lifts-margins-1777290960.html Diesel, jet fuel margins surged after Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted supply Phillips 66, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum expected to post higher quarterly profits Analysts expect strong fuel margins to boost refiner earnings for several quarters NEW YORK, April 27 Reuters Top U.S. independent refiners are expected to report stronger firstquarter results than a year ago, helped by supply disruptions tied to the war in the Middle East that drove fuel margins to multiyear highs. Refiners came out of the first quarter with diesel and jet fuel margins sharply higher than at the start of the year, following the February 28 start of the U.S.Israeli attacks on Iran that led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz a narrow shipping route that carries about a fifth of the world39;s oil and a large share of global fuel exports. Analysts say much of the profit boost is likely to appear later in the year. Shares of major U.S. refiners such as Valero Energy, Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum have climbed more than 20 so far this year. Refiners had a whirlwind Q139;26, as the escalation of the Iran conflict led to global supply restrictions that sent product cracks margins soaring, said Matthew Blair, an analyst at Tudor, Pickering, Holt Co, noting that distillates is where the strongest margin uplift was coming through. Diesel cracks strengthened as barrels typically moving out of the Middle East through the strait were choked. The alreadylow inventories heading into the... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-refiners-q1-profits-seen-jumping-as-war-lifts-margins-1777290960.html Mon, 27 Apr 2026 02:40:04 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-retail-sales-tumble-by-most-in-over-40-years-cbi-survey-1777291802.html LONDON, April 27 Reuters British retailers reported the broadest yearonyear decline in sales in more than 40 years as the Iran war raised households39; inflation fears, a survey from the Confederation of British Industry showed on Monday. The CBI39;s monthly retail sales volume measure dropped to 68 in April from 52 in March, its lowest reading since the series started in 1983, as 77 of firms reported sales were down compared with a year ago while only 9 reported an increase. Some retailers reported that weak consumer confidence was weighing on spending in April, the employer organisation said. Expectations for May also darkened, dropping to 60 from 49, the gloomiest outlook since March 2021 during the COVID19 pandemic. With the economic impact of the Iran conflict becoming clearer, firms will be looking to government to recognise that easing cost of living pressures depends on tackling the cost of doing business, CBI economist Martin Sartorius said. The CBI called on the government to stop new employee rights legislation from boosting employers39; costs too much, reduce their property taxes and lower electricity bills. The survey was based on response from 61 retail chains collected between March 26 and April 14. The decline in the CBI figure was steeper than in other data since the U.S and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28, leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for oil exports. Britain39;s longestrunning consumer... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-retail-sales-tumble-by-most-in-over-40-years-cbi-survey-1777291802.html Mon, 27 Apr 2026 01:10:25 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/iran-war-hits-circuit-board-supply-lifting-tech-costs-1777302897.html Iran attack on Saudi petrochemical plant halts PPE resin output, tightening global supply PCB prices surge up to 40 in April, driven by AI server demand and material shortages Manufacturers warn of rising costs for resin, copper, and other materials BEIJINGSEOUL, April 27 Rtrs The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supplies of crucial raw materials and pushed up prices of the printed circuit boards PCB used in almost all electronic devices, from smartphones and computers to AI servers, industry sources and executives said. The disruption is a fresh blow to electronics manufacturers which are already grappling with soaring memory chip costs and highlights the broadening impact of the Iran war that has wreaked havoc on supply chains, plastics, and oil supplies. Iran struck Saudi Arabia39;s Jubail petrochemical complex in early April, forcing a halt in production of highpurity polyphenylene ether PPE resin a critical base material used to manufacture PCB laminates. SABIC, which accounts for approximately 70 of the world39;s highpurity PPE supply and operates in the Jubail complex on the Gulf coast, has been unable to resume output, severely tightening the availability of the material worldwide, according to one source. Shipping in and out of the Gulf has also been severely disrupted by the war. PCB prices have been climbing since late last year, driven by a growing appetite for AI servers. Demand has been accelerating sharply since March as manufacturers... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/iran-war-hits-circuit-board-supply-lifting-tech-costs-1777302897.html Mon, 27 Apr 2026 11:20:31 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/eu-steelmakers-eye-rebound-as-iran-war-hits-asian-rivals-1777280019.html Steel prices, EU safeguard to boost sector earnings Asian peers more exposed to wardriven fuel price hit Sweden39;s SSAB to kick off sector earnings reporting on Tuesday April 27 Reuters After over half a dozen muted earnings seasons, steelmakers in the European Union are set for a rebound and the first quarter of 2026 could be an inflection point, analysts say. Though demand has not recovered to 2022 levels, steel prices have increased faster than expected in recent months thanks to higher energy prices and diminishing imports from outside the bloc due to the EU39;s new safeguards. European hot rolled coil prices have gained about 20 in the past six months. Barring demand, the planets are now more or less aligned for the sector, Oddo BHF analyst Maxime Kogge told Reuters. In the past, we only had some oneoff measures against imports. Now the system has been fundamentally structurally strengthened, Kogge said, referring to the EU39;s carbon levy on highemission imports and trade policy to halve import quotas, set to be in place from July 1. Higher steel prices will help boost EU steelmakers, which are almost all expected to post higher firstquarter profits compared to the same period last year and to the previous quarter, according to data compiled by LSEG. Surprisingly, the war in the Middle East has also benefited them in some ways, though probably not enough to outweigh the drawbacks. Despite the conflict increasing uncertainty, threatening to stall... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/eu-steelmakers-eye-rebound-as-iran-war-hits-asian-rivals-1777280019.html Mon, 27 Apr 2026 10:10:16 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/japan-ipo-market-unlikely-to-recover-despite-hot-debuts-1777281048.html Stricter listing rules and delisting risks weigh on Japan IPO market Umenoyado39;s sake featured at Japanese PM39;s lunch with US President Astronaut billionaire scores again with pet food company listing TOKYO, April 27 Reuters Sparkling debuts on the Tokyo bourse by a sake brewery and pet food maker last week are unlikely to revive a moribund market for new stock listings in Japan as investors remain fixated on the artificial intelligence boom. Shares of Umenoyado Brewery surged 75 on their first day of trading on Friday, while InunekoSeikatsu traded more than 30 higher than its IPO price on Monday. Even as the Japanese stock market surged to successive record highs this year, initial public offerings have disappointed, with new listings largely trading below their debut price. Reforms pushed by the Tokyo Stock Exchange TSE have helped valuations jump for the overall market, but stricter listing criteria have put a damper on the IPO sector. At the same time, enthusiasm over the redhot artificial intelligence sector has sapped interest in IPOs, which are typically small companies that are focused on domestic demand. The IPO boom has faded because retail investors39; interest is largely focused on AI stocks. We do not see those stocks among recent new listings, said Shigetoshi Kamada, an adviser of the research department at Tachibana Securities. Before the listing of IT company SystemExe on April 6, all seven IPOs on the TSE this year traded below their debut... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/japan-ipo-market-unlikely-to-recover-despite-hot-debuts-1777281048.html Mon, 27 Apr 2026 08:20:40 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/canada-11-month-budget-deficit-rises-to-c-25-55-bln-1777275945.html OTTAWA, Reuters Canada recorded a higher C25.55 billion 18.66 billion budget deficit for the first 11 months of the 202526 fiscal year as government expenditures grew faster than revenues, the finance ministry said on Friday. By comparison, the deficit in the same period a year earlier had been C19.27 billion, it said in a statement. Program expenses rose 2.1 on increases across almost all major categories of spending. Public debt charges shrank slightly by 0.1 reflecting the impact of lower interest rates on treasury bills and other instruments. This was partly offset by higher average effective interest rates on an increased stock of marketable bonds, the ministry said. Yeartodate revenues grew by 0.8, largely reflecting higher income from custom import duties and corporate and personal income tax revenues. On a monthly basis, Canada posted a surplus of C5.66 billion in February, compared to a C7.57 billion surplus in February 2025. 1 1.3695 Canadian dollars Reporting by Promit Mukherjee, editing by Ed White Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/canada-11-month-budget-deficit-rises-to-c-25-55-bln-1777275945.html Mon, 27 Apr 2026 07:30:32 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-consumer-mood-at-record-low-inflation-expectations-rise-1777052176.html Consumer sentiment index falls to an alltime low of 49.8 this month Twelvemonth inflation expectations increase sharply Gasoline and diesel prices surge after Strait of Hormuz disruption WASHINGTON, April 24 Reuters U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a record low in April as households shrugged off a ceasefire in the war with Iran, remaining focused on the inflation fallout from the conflict. The University of Michigan39;s Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a final reading of 49.8 this month, an alltime low. The reading was a slight improvement, however, from the 47.6 reported earlier in the month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 48.0. It was at 53.3 in March. The deterioration in sentiment was across political party affiliation, and among consumers with investments in the stock market. The Iran war has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, boosting the price of oil, and ultimately the cost of gasoline and diesel. Prices for other commodities, including fertilizers, petrochemicals and aluminum, which will soon impact consumers, have also surged. Tehran effectively closed the strait after the start of the war on February 28. President Donald Trump this week indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran, though a U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect. The Iran conflict appears to influence consumer views primarily through shocks to gasoline and potentially other prices, said Joanne Hsu, the... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-consumer-mood-at-record-low-inflation-expectations-rise-1777052176.html Fri, 24 Apr 2026 07:50:27 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/galp-does-not-expect-jet-fuel-shortages-in-portugal-1777050549.html LISBON, April 24 Reuters Portugal39;s Galp, the country39;s only refiner and dominant jet fuel supplier, does not expect supply disruptions despite concerns raised by some European airlines ahead of the holiday travel season, it said on Friday. Galp said it supplies around 80 of the jet fuel consumed at Portuguese airports through its own production at the Sines refinery, which sources its crude mainly from Galp39;s offshore fields in Brazil. It also imports smaller volumes mainly to cover periods of higher demand and to comply with mandatory European requirements for the use of sustainable aviation fuel. European airlines have warned that the Iran war could trigger jet fuel shortages, as Europe relies on the Middle East for about 75 of its jet fuel imports. Galp said imports in past years were sourced mainly from refineries in Asia and the Middle East, but it would instead prioritise jet fuel from the United States, West Africa and Europe. These imports will likely be concentrated between May and October, it added. At this stage and in the current context, no supply disruptions are expected in the coming months, with demand seen fully covered by national production at the Sines refinery, adequate stock levels and already contracted jet fuel imports, Galp said in a statement. Galp said it had rolled out mitigation measures since early March to bolster supply resilience, including daily supplydemand monitoring, closer tracking of geopolitical risks, earlier cargo... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/galp-does-not-expect-jet-fuel-shortages-in-portugal-1777050549.html Fri, 24 Apr 2026 07:40:50 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/snb-defends-strategy-amid-calls-to-ditch-palantir-stake-1777048274.html Bern, April 24 Reuters Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel defended the central bank39;s investment approach on Friday, after campaigners from Minneapolis called on the central bank to offload its 1.1 billion investment in Palantir Technologies. Schlegel said he could not comment on individual stocks but said the SNB39;s massive foreign currency portfolio was designed to serve its monetary policy. The bank39;s investments must be available at all times and preserve their value over the long term, Schlegel said, while with equities the SNB followed a marketneutral approach. We weight companies according to their market weight or market capitalization, in order to cover the market as broadly as possible and also to diversify risks, Schlegel said. Still, the SNB did exclude companies that systematically cause severe environmental damage, violate fundamental human rights or produce banned weapons, he added. Naturally, we work with external specialists who carry out the screening for us and also make the corresponding assessments, Schlegel said. I believe this process is very robust, he said, adding the situation with companies was not always clear in one direction or the other. There are shades of grey, and there are even other colours as well, Schlegel said. Reporting by John Revill, Editing by Miranda Murray Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/snb-defends-strategy-amid-calls-to-ditch-palantir-stake-1777048274.html Fri, 24 Apr 2026 04:30:05 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/brazil-posts-wider-than-expected-march-account-deficit-1777038780.html BRASILIA, April 24 Reuters Brazil39;s current account deficit totaled 6.036 billion in March, central bank data showed on Friday, exceeding the 5.489 billion shortfall expected by economists in a Reuters poll. Foreign direct investment FDI for the month reached 6.037 billion, falling short of the 7 billion forecast in the poll. The widening of the current account deficit was driven by a 1.6 billion fall in the trade surplus from the same month last year, as imports grew much faster than exports. Also weighing on the monthly result were larger deficits in the factor payments account, up 1.1 billion from March 2025, and in services, which increased by 600 million. On a 12month basis, the current account deficit rose to 2.71 of gross domestic product GDP, from 2.61 in the previous month. Over the same period, FDI totaled 3.18 of GDP, down from 3.24 in February. Reporting by Marcela Ayres; Editing by Gabriel Araujo and Tomasz Janowski Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/brazil-posts-wider-than-expected-march-account-deficit-1777038780.html Fri, 24 Apr 2026 03:50:24 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-s-citic-quarterly-profit-jumps-55-on-broker-fees-1777034738.html Net profits at 10.216 bln yuan, beating analysts39; estimate Brokerage fees and commissions revenue up 47.8 on year in Q1 Investment banking fees and commissions revenue up 23.8 on year BEIJINGSHANGHAI, April 24 Reuters China39;s CITIC Securities reported on Friday a jump of 54.6 in firstquarter profit yearonyear, driven by surging brokerage fee income on high trading activity in domestic capital markets. In a stock exchange filing CITIC said net profit for the first quarter reached 10.216 billion yuan 1.49 billion, beating analysts39; average estimate of 8.370 billion yuan, according to LSEG data. In the first quarter of 2026, China39;s capital markets maintained a positive growth trajectory, with trading activity remaining at elevated levels, it added, saying this drove strong growth in overall operating performance. Firstquarter fees and commission revenue in the brokerage business rose 47.8 on the year, to 4.915 billion yuan, the filing showed. China39;s average daily trading turnover in the Ashare market of about 2.58 trillion yuan in the first quarter, was up about 70 on the year, reflecting sustained investor appetite in stable market conditions. Chinese stocks are fast emerging as a safe haven as the Middle East conflict global risk sentiment, with investment banks increasingly bullish on a market that has held up better than its regional peers in March. Investment banking fees and commission revenue rose 23.8 to 1.207 billion yuan, buoyed by... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-s-citic-quarterly-profit-jumps-55-on-broker-fees-1777034738.html Fri, 24 Apr 2026 02:50:52 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/czech-gov-backs-cez-spin-off-toward-state-takeover-minister-1777031287.html PRAGUE, April 24 Reuters The Czech government welcomes a plan by 70 stateowned electricity producer CEZ to spin off its distribution and other nonproduction assets and offer a minority stake in them to investors, Industry and Trade Minister Karel Havlicek said on Friday. Havlicek told reporters the plan would generate cash for the government39;s plan to subsequently take over full ownership of CEZ39;s production business through a buyout of minority shareholders that would not harm their rights, burden the state budget or significantly hurt CEZ39;s cash flow. CEZ is one of Europe39;s largest electricity utilities with a market capitalisation of 31 billion. The government, which took office late last year, has made taking control of at least its production operations a priority. Yesterday39;s decision corresponds to our aim. We welcome it, and without doubt it is the first step for it to be achieved, Havlicek told reporters. The plan will be discussed at CEZ39;s annual meeting on June 1 and, with government support, should be approved. Havlicek said he expected the utility to float the minority CEZ put it at up to 49 of the spunoff assets including customer sales, trading and power distribution on the Prague Stock Exchange, keeping a large piece of CEZ listed while the parent firm would eventually be taken off the market. CEZ said on Thursday a direct sale was also an alternative, while spinning off the mostly regulated assets, such as power and gas... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/czech-gov-backs-cez-spin-off-toward-state-takeover-minister-1777031287.html Fri, 24 Apr 2026 02:10:04 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/italy-to-replace-greece-as-euro-zone-s-most-indebted-state-1777043656.html Italian debttoGDP ratio to peak at 138.6 in 2026 Greece set to cut its debt to around 137 of GDP Greece39;s debt peaked at 209.4 in 2020 ATHENSROME, April 24 Reuters Greece will cease to be the euro zone39;s most indebted country by the end of this year as its public debt will fall below Italy39;s, according to two sources and data from Italy39;s budget plan. Greek debt is estimated to decline to around 137 of gross domestic product this year from 145.9 in 2025, two senior officials told Reuters. By contrast, Italy expects its debt to peak at 138.6 in 2026, up 1.5 percentage points from 137.1 of GDP in 2025, under the Treasury39;s multiyear budget plan published this week. Speaking on condition of anonymity, both the officials said Greece would from this year cease to be the euro zone39;s most indebted country. They said the new estimate for Greece39;s debt ratio would be included in the country39;s multiyear fiscal plan to be submitted to the European Commission at the end of this month. Italy39;s debt will be roughly stable at 138.5 in 2027, before declining to 137.9 in 2028 and to 136.3 the following year, its budget plan showed. Greece39;s public debt the highest in the euro zone over the last two decades has shrunk by more than 60 percentage points to 145.9 of gross domestic product last year from a peak of 209.4 in 2020. Italy cut its debt by some 17 percentage points over the same period. Greece, which is recovering from a decadelong financial crisis... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/italy-to-replace-greece-as-euro-zone-s-most-indebted-state-1777043656.html Fri, 24 Apr 2026 01:30:08 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-q1-fiscal-spending-picks-up-to-spur-economic-growth-1777035770.html BEIJING, April 24 Reuters Chinas fiscal spending rose 2.6 in the first quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from a 1 increase in 2025, the finance ministry said on Friday, as Beijing steps up support for economic growth amid rising global risks caused by the Middle East conflict. Fiscal expenditure in the JanuaryMarch period totalled 7.47 trillion yuan 1.09 trillion, while fiscal revenue grew 2.4 from a year earlier to 6.16 trillion yuan, the ministry said. Firstquarter fiscal spending accounted for 24.9 of annual budgeted expenditure the highest in recent years a finance ministry official told a media briefing, as authorities pledged to boost government outlays to help meet this years economic growth target. At an agendasetting meeting last month, Chinese policymakers vowed to continue a more proactive fiscal policy for 2026, promising record public spending, government bond issuance and transfers to local government. Government land sales revenue fell 24.4 over the first three months from a year earlier, the ministry also said. Revenue from land sales by local governments was down 25.2 on the year over the first two months of 2026, following a 14.7 contraction in 2025. Local governments have previously relied on the sales of landuse rights to property developers as a major source of revenue. A prolonged property market downturn that started in mid2021 has continued to strain local government finances. 1 6.8377 Chinese yuan renminbi Reporting by Yukun... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-q1-fiscal-spending-picks-up-to-spur-economic-growth-1777035770.html Fri, 24 Apr 2026 12:20:19 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/spain-industrial-prices-hit-1-year-high-as-energy-costs-bite-1777044929.html April 24 Reuters A spike in energy costs caused Spanish industrial prices to rise at their fastest rate in a year in March after falling for four consecutive months, the National Statistics Institute INE said on Friday. Over the 12 months through March, industrial prices rose by 3.4, a considerable increase from February39;s revised 6.9 decrease. Industrial prices changes tend to anticipate consumer prices as companies transfer some higher costs to customers, ultimately fuelling inflation. The rate was skewed by energy prices, which grew at a rate of 7.9. That was 30 percentage points faster than in February, when they decreased by 22.1. That was mostly due to a 46.3 monthonmonth spike in petrol refining prices, as well as a smaller uptick of electricity distribution and gas prices, INE said. Prices of crude futures are about 45 higher than before the start of the war in the Middle East, as fears of a renewed military escalation grow. Industrial prices rose 6.5 in March from February, INE said. Reporting by Javi West Larrañaga; Editing by Emma Pinedo and Toby Chopra Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/spain-industrial-prices-hit-1-year-high-as-energy-costs-bite-1777044929.html Fri, 24 Apr 2026 11:40:31 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-fuel-dash-at-start-of-iran-war-boosts-retail-sales-1777038297.html UK retail sales volumes 0.7 mm Reuters poll had pointed to 0.1 rise Excluding fuel sales up 0.2 vs poll forecast 0.0 Clothing sales up, food sales down Consumer confidence dips in April LONDON, April 24 Reuters British motorists worried about fuel price increases rushed to the pumps immediately after the start of the Iran war, pushing up total sales volumes for the country39;s retail sector by more than expected in March, official data showed on Friday. Fuel sales leapt by 6.1 from February with much stronger sales than usual in the first few days after the start of the conflict on February 28, the Office for National Statistics said, using government data. Excluding the COVID19 pandemic period, it was the biggest monthly increase in fuel sales since January 2016, the ONS said. Retail sales volumes across the board rose by 0.7 in March after a fall of 0.6 in February. Economists polled by Reuters had mostly expected a monthly increase of 0.1 in sales volumes in March. Excluding fuel sales, volumes were up by 0.2, the ONS said. The Reuters poll had pointed to a flat reading. Overall, the data suggested consumers did not immediately rein in their spending in response to the war. Clothing sales were up by 1.2 from February as a wet start to the year gave way to sunshine in March However, food sales fell by a monthly 0.8, the biggest drop since August last year. Thomas Pugh, chief UK economist at accountancy firm RSM, said a fall in consumer confidence in April... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-fuel-dash-at-start-of-iran-war-boosts-retail-sales-1777038297.html Fri, 24 Apr 2026 11:20:58 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-gold-premiums-hit-10-wk-high-as-china-demand-rises-1777019702.html Indian premiums rise due to limited supplies Gold demand subdued in India following Akshaya Tritiya festival Chinese premiums rise to 912oz on increased demand Spot gold set for weekly drop April 24 Reuters Gold premiums in India climbed to their highest in over twoandahalf months this week, as supplies tightened, while buying interest picked up in China. Indian banks were forced to halt gold and silver imports earlier this month after the government delayed an authorisation order, leaving tons of bullion stranded at customs. While the order was eventually issued, one Mumbaibased bullion trader said, Premiums are rising due to limited supplies. Banks are still not importing gold because of uncertainty over the applicable tax on gold. Dealers quoted premiums of up to 15 an ounce over official domestic prices this week, inclusive of 6 import and 3 sales levies, the highest since February 7. Last week, dealers quoted discounts of up to 4 an ounce and premiums of 14 an ounce. Indians celebrated Akshaya Tritiya on April 19, when gold purchases are considered auspicious, though demand was weaker than usual. Retail buying has slowed after the festival, but demand could improve if prices fall below 150,000 rupees, said an Ahmedabadbased jeweller. Domestic gold prices were trading around 151,200 rupees per 10 grams on Friday, after rising to a onemonth high of 155,065 rupees last week. In top consumer China, bullion traded at premiums of 9 to 12 an ounce over the... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-gold-premiums-hit-10-wk-high-as-china-demand-rises-1777019702.html Fri, 24 Apr 2026 11:00:31 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-fuel-dash-at-start-of-iran-war-boosts-retail-sales-1777044215.html UK retail sales volumes 0.7 mm Reuters poll had pointed to 0.1 rise Excluding fuel sales up 0.2 vs poll forecast 0.0 Clothing sales up, food sales down Consumer confidence dips in April LONDON, April 24 Reuters British motorists worried about fuel price increases rushed to the pumps immediately after the start of the Iran war, pushing up total sales volumes for the country39;s retail sector by more than expected in March, official data showed on Friday. Fuel sales leapt by 6.1 from February with much stronger sales than usual in the first few days after the start of the conflict on February 28, the Office for National Statistics said, using government data. Excluding the COVID19 pandemic period, it was the biggest monthly increase in fuel sales since January 2016, the ONS said. Retail sales volumes across the board rose by 0.7 in March after a fall of 0.6 in February. Economists polled by Reuters had mostly expected a monthly increase of 0.1 in sales volumes in March. Excluding fuel sales, volumes were up by 0.2, the ONS said. The Reuters poll had pointed to a flat reading. Overall, the data suggested consumers did not immediately rein in their spending in response to the war. Clothing sales were up by 1.2 from February as a wet start to the year gave way to sunshine in March. However, food sales fell by a monthly 0.8, the biggest drop since August last year. Thomas Pugh, chief UK economist at accountancy firm RSM, said a fall in consumer confidence in April... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-fuel-dash-at-start-of-iran-war-boosts-retail-sales-1777044215.html Fri, 24 Apr 2026 10:30:35 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/most-us-companies-seen-sticking-with-quarterly-reporting-1777019000.html Investors warn semiannual reporting may lead to valuation penalties Smaller firms may benefit most from reduced reporting, but also need investor visibility Major banks and exchanges support change to boost IPO activity PROVIDENCE, RHODE ISLAND, April 24 Reuters Quarterly earnings reporting may soon become optional for U.S. firms yet the vast majority of companies are unlikely to take advantage of lighter requirements as it could hurt valuations, investors and market participants say. A plan to move from quarterly to halfyear reporting was revived by President Donald Trump last year after he initially proposed it during his first administration. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to soon formally seek feedback and comments from the public for a proposal to remove the quarterly earnings reporting requirement. Proponents argue that it is a way to help businesses focus on longerterm strategic priorities as well as reduce the cost and paperwork of being publicly traded, although investors ranging from giant hedge funds to smaller asset managers caution that companies that adopt the plan may face a backlash from investors. Any established company that makes this shift will pop up on the screens of active investment managers and be a candidate for being downsized or removed from portfolios, or have valuations reconsidered, said Sam Rines, macro strategist at WisdomTree Asset Management. We want, we need, more information, not less. While broadly... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/most-us-companies-seen-sticking-with-quarterly-reporting-1777019000.html Fri, 24 Apr 2026 08:30:08 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-fixed-30-year-mortgage-rate-drops-to-6-23-1777028276.html WASHINGTON, Reuters The average rate on the popular U.S. 30year fixedrate mortgage fell this week, though further declines are likely to be limited by uncertainty surrounding a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Iran. The 30year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.23, down from 6.30 last week, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac said on Thursday. It averaged 5.98 just before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae expanded purchases of mortgagebacked securities. The rate shot up to an average of 6.46 at the beginning of April. Mortgage rates track U.S. Treasuries, which have largely been rangebound amid lingering uncertainty over the truce. Trump on Tuesday indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran, though a U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect. On Thursday, Trump said he had ordered the U.S. Navy to shoot and kill any boat that is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, lifting global oil prices. Reporting By Lucia Mutikani Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-fixed-30-year-mortgage-rate-drops-to-6-23-1777028276.html Fri, 24 Apr 2026 07:40:05 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/mexico-s-inflation-eases-less-than-expected-in-early-april-1777023961.html MEXICO CITY, April 23 Reuters Mexico39;s 12month inflation stood at 4.53 in the first half of April, data from statistics agency INEGI showed on Thursday, above expectations but slowing from the previous month. Annual inflation in Latin America39;s secondlargest economy eased from 4.63 in early March, but came in slightly above the 4.5 expected by economists polled by Reuters. Inflation remains above the Bank of Mexico39;s target of 3, plus or minus one percentage point, fueling uncertainty over future monetary policy decisions. Mexico39;s high inflation rate for the first half of April 4.53 occurred despite the scheduled downward adjustment of electricity rates, said Gabriela Siller, Banco Base39;s economic analysis director. The analyst also questioned on X if the Bank of Mexico now put interest rate cuts on hold, or if the entity will use the inflation slowdown to justify further cuts. Banxico39;s board members showed discrepancies about the impact that the conflict in the Middle East poses to Mexican prices, differing perspectives that became tangible in the 32 split decision to resume the bank39;s rate easing cycle last month cutting the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.75, minutes from the latest meeting showed. The closely watched core price index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, reached 4.27 in the 12 months through early April, compared with 4.46 in the first half of March. Monthonmonth consumer prices rose 0.11 during the... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/mexico-s-inflation-eases-less-than-expected-in-early-april-1777023961.html Thu, 23 Apr 2026 06:30:09 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-to-hike-june-rates-on-war-inflation-future-path-unclear-1776963523.html BENGALURU, April 23 Reuters The European Central Bank will hold its deposit rate on April 30 but hike it in June, according to just over half of economists polled by Reuters, in a bid to protect a warfuelled energy shock from knocking the euro zone economy off balance. Economists, however, failed to agree on what would follow June39;s quarterpoint lift, largely seen as an insurance move because the extent of any secondround inflationary effects arising from higher fuel prices was still unclear. Oil prices have surged during nearly two months of war in the Middle East, pushing inflation well above the ECBs 2 target, leading financial markets to price in more than two rate increases this year and dampening business and consumer sentiment. ECB policymakers have sounded more determined than their peers to contain inflation but have played down the likelihood of an immediate rate rise, citing insufficient evidence that energy costs, which they can39;t control, are spilling into broader price rises. The central bank is still haunted by its slow reaction to a rapid inflation surge in 2022, while also wary of repeating its 2011 mistake, when it raised rates twice in four months as commodity prices climbed, making a euro zone debt crisis worse. All but one of 85 economists in the April 17 to 23 Reuters poll predicted the ECB would hold its deposit rate at 2 next week. Just over half 44 forecast a June increase to 2.25, while 40 expected no change. Until late last month,... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-to-hike-june-rates-on-war-inflation-future-path-unclear-1776963523.html Thu, 23 Apr 2026 04:10:55 +0300