https://www.gurutrade.com/news/economic/rss/ In this section gathered the recent economic events that have a strong influence on the currency market. Wed, 17 Jun 2026 07:07:26 +0300 50 en https://www.gurutrade.com/news/spain-antitrust-watchdog-probes-banks-over-mortgages-1781620446.html MADRID, June 16 Reuters Spain39;s antitrust regulator said on Tuesday it was launching disciplinary proceedings against all six listed lenders in the country, including Santander and BBVA, for possible anticompetitive practices in the mortgage market. The CNMC said it was probing whether certain executives had made public statements about their banks39; future commercial policies, particularly regarding interest rates on fixedrate mortgages. Such statements would have allowed entities in the sector to anticipate the future behaviour of their competitors, the regulator said in a statement. The probe comes at a time of fierce competition among Spanish lenders in the mortgage sector. Some banking executives have warned of irrational practices to win over customers, with some rates falling below market prices. Spanish mortgages are among the lowest in the euro zone, with an average rate of 2.81 as of April, compared with the euro zone average of 3.44, data from the European Central Bank shows. Caixabank, Unicaja, Bankinter and Sabadell are also part of the probe. All of the banks declined to comment. Alejandra Kindelan, head of the Spanish banking association, said on Tuesday that the banks complied with the law. We have the most competitive mortgage market in Europe, she added. The opening of the investigation does not prejudge an outcome, the CNMC said, adding it had a 24month deadline to reach a final decision. Reporting by Jesús Aguado; editing by Milla... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/spain-antitrust-watchdog-probes-banks-over-mortgages-1781620446.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 05:00:28 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/italy-business-lobby-urges-fast-renewables-roll-out-1781624560.html MILAN, June 16 Reuters Italy39;s business lobby Confindustria has called for emergency action from the government to speed up the rollout of renewable energy in the country, which is grappling with much higher power costs than in most of Europe. The recent increase in gas prices triggered by the Iran war has highlighted the cost for Italian families and firms of the slow development of renewables, and sparked fresh calls for more decisive action to promote green policies. Confindustria President Emanuele Orsini urged Giorgia Meloni39;s government to appoint a special commissioner to oversee the permitting process for renewable projects, along the lines of emergency action taken to ensure gas supplies in 2022. Some 4,000 permits for renewable projects amounting to 130 gigawatt must be unblocked... we need a commissioner, Orsini said on Monday at an event in the northern city of Varese. The risk of inaction is that manufacturers will leave Italy for countries with lower energy costs, Orsini said, also urging the European Commission to create a single market for power. Gas, which is more expensive than renewables, accounts for almost half of Italy39;s electricity production, the highest proportion in the European Union, according to 2025 data by global energy think tanks Ember and the Energy Institute. That compares with around a fifth in Spain and 3 in France39;s nucleardominated system. When Russia39;s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 gave rise to an acute energy... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/italy-business-lobby-urges-fast-renewables-roll-out-1781624560.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 04:20:31 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/german-auto-lobby-backs-eu-us-trade-deal-amid-tariffs-1781625124.html BERLIN, June 16 Reuters The European Parliament39;s approval of Brussels39; trade deal with the United States is important for German auto makers seeking clarity but trade barriers remain too high, with tariffs on trucks particularly steep, an industry body said on Tuesday. Germany39;s VDA automotive association said the approval of a EUUS trade deal must now be formally adopted by the European Council as a matter of urgency. Reliable operating conditions are of paramount importance to our companies, VDA President Hildegard Mueller said in a statement to Reuters, adding that current U.S. tariffs of 15 on passenger cars and their parts still pose a significant challenge for the German automotive industry. She also pushed for a solution for manufacturers of commercial vehicles, for whom the impact is of existential importance with a 25 tariff rate for trucks and an additional 10 for buses. They also undermine investment and jobs in the U.S., weaken supply chains, drive up costs throughout the entire value chain, and will ultimately burden consumers as well, Mueller said. Reporting by Rachel More, Editing by Madeline Chambers Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/german-auto-lobby-backs-eu-us-trade-deal-amid-tariffs-1781625124.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 03:50:47 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-to-review-pension-transfer-rules-after-unusual-deal-1781617872.html LONDON, June 16 Reuters Britain will review defined benefit pension transfer rules after a novel deal saw an asset manager take on a scheme39;s assets and liabilities in an unanticipated use of existing legislation, a government minister said on Tuesday. Torsten Bell, a junior minister in the finance and pensions departments, said the deal used a flexible apportionment arrangement a mechanism introduced in 2012 to allow pension liabilities to be reassigned during corporate restructurings without triggering employer insolvency. Bell said the asset manager used the mechanism in December last year in a way that had not originally been anticipated. We therefore intend to review this area of legislation to ensure the regulatory standards and safeguards evolve and keep pace with the innovation we are seeing in the pension market, Bell said in a statement. Reporting by Sam Tabahriti; editing by Sarah Young Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-to-review-pension-transfer-rules-after-unusual-deal-1781617872.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 02:30:50 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/rwi-cuts-germany-recovery-outlook-on-energy-inflation-1781607815.html BERLIN, June 16 Reuters Germany39;s economy is expected to grow by 0.8 in both 2026 and 2027, as resilient industrial activity offsets only part of the drag from higher energy prices linked to the Iran war, the RWI economic institute said on Tuesday. In March the institute expected growth of 0.9 in 2026 and 1.2 in 2027. The institute said it had lowered its expectations for the recovery, with rising oil, fuel and transport costs increasingly feeding through to broader parts of the economy. It forecast consumer price inflation of 3.1 in 2026 and 2.9 in 2027. The current inflation surge is not limited to fuel and energy, RWI chief economist Torsten Schmidt said. Higher costs are increasingly working their way through value chains and will become visible in more and more goods and services. RWI said private consumption was likely to remain weak as persistent inflation erodes household purchasing power, and it expects the economy to stagnate in the second quarter of 2026. On the other hand, the institute said German industry had so far proved more robust than expected, with output, orders and exports rising in the first quarter. Industry should continue to benefit from stronger exports and higher public investment, though elevated energy costs would weigh over time, RWI said. Reporting by Maria Martinez, Editing by Miranda Murray and Linda Pasquini Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/rwi-cuts-germany-recovery-outlook-on-energy-inflation-1781607815.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 01:40:01 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/german-investor-morale-rebounds-on-iran-peace-hopes-1781606570.html BERLIN, June 16Reuters German investor morale rose unexpectedly in June as financial market experts bet the Iran conflict was nearing an end and inflation pressures would ease. The indicator of economic sentiment rose to 10.5 points in June, the ZEW economic research institute said on Tuesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had anticipated the reading to come in at minus 6 points from minus 10.2 points a month earlier. Experts are betting that the Iran conflict is nearing an end, said ZEW President Achim Wambach. The massive pressure on energy prices and inflation is likely to ease. The survey was conducted between June 8 and June 15. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday a preliminary agreement to end the conflict had been signed by the U.S. and Iran. By contrast, the assessment of the current economic situation declined slightly, falling to minus 81.0 points, from minus 77.8 in the previous month. Reporting by Friederike Heine, editing by Linda Pasquini and Madeline Chambers Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/german-investor-morale-rebounds-on-iran-peace-hopes-1781606570.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 01:00:38 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-indonesia-shocks-upend-global-coal-market-1781606231.html LNG crunch pushes Newcastle coal index to near 2year high Indonesia output down, policy chaos seen driving exports lower El Nino could fuel Asian demand surge Russia supply woes add to tightening global coal market SINGAPOREBEIJING, June 16 Reuters A deadly mining accident in China39;s biggest coalproducing region and mounting policy chaos around Indonesian exports are choking global supplies, which analysts and industry officials say could boost prices as liquefied natural gas LNG supplies remain tight due to the U.S.Israeli war on Iran. The war in Iran halted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz through which, during normal times, a fifth of global oil and LNG supplies passes triggering purchases of highgrade coal by Japan and South Korea and pushing the Newcastle benchmark to near twoyear highs of over 150 a metric ton. However, purchases of lowergrade coal typically from top exporter Indonesia have been soft due to tepid demand from China and India, which have leaned upon sufficient inventories and renewable output to meet power demand. That is changing after a fatal explosion at a Shanxi mine last month, analysts say, with the accident triggering sweeping safety inspections in the province and tightening domestic supplies. China39;s June thermal coal imports are expected to rise 27.6 from a year earlier to 27.8 million metric tons to meet higher seasonal demand as local supply tightens, DBX Commodities CEO Alexandre Claude said a substantial increase... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-indonesia-shocks-upend-global-coal-market-1781606231.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 12:00:20 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/germany-formally-rejects-unicredit-s-commerzbank-offer-1781598324.html FRANKFURTMILAN, June 16 Reuters Germany has officially rejected UniCredit39;s offer to buy Commerzbank, the country39;s finance agency said on Tuesday, citing a low price and concerns about what it called the Italian bank39;s aggressive approach. UniCredit39;s initial offer period for Commerzbank shares is winding down, with both banks digging in their heels in the monthslong battle for control of one of Germany39;s most important lenders. The German government holds a 12 stake in Commerzbank acquired in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis and has long objected to UniCredit39;s campaign for a tieup. Accepting the offer was already not an option from a financial point of view, as it does not include an appropriate premium on the current share price of Commerzbanks shares, the agency said. It also said that it supported Commerzbank39;s independence, and noted that the bank played a critical role in financing mediumsized companies and was an integral player in Frankfurt, the nation39;s financial hub. Both must continue to be ensured in the future, it said. Separately, Frankfurt prosecutors on Tuesday confirmed that they had begun a preliminary investigation into possible market manipulation related to the offer. It follows a criminal complaint filed by Commerzbank39;s workers council that reached prosecutors on Sunday. UniCredit said in a statement that it was aware of the matter and that the prosecutors39; response was in line with protocol when such... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/germany-formally-rejects-unicredit-s-commerzbank-offer-1781598324.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 11:20:21 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-iran-deal-may-not-bring-quick-relief-for-auto-shops-1781618877.html Tokyo shops report shortages of motor oil, paint thinner and diesel exhaust fluid Repairers may delay repainting vehicles, especially popular pearl white models Smaller garages are losing out as bigger buyers stockpile and automakers get priority US group says prices not to ease until mid2027 TOKYODETROIT, June 16 Reuters Tokyo auto shops and Detroit car dealerships have been running short of motor oil, paint and other products for months since the Middle East conflict snarled global supply chains. Now, while a potential deal between the U.S. and Iran may bring an end to the fighting, industry experts and executives say it is unlikely to deliver immediate relief to the smaller shops that have been squeezed by Tehran39;s shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Closure of the strait has blocked almost a fifth of global oil flows and led to bottlenecks for some petroleumderived products. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday a preliminary agreement to end the war has been signed both countries although details remain unclear and it may take some time for shipments through the strait to return to normal. Hiroyuki Nakamura has already spent the last few months trying to ride out a shortage of motor oil, the first he39;s ever seen in 35 years repairing cars. Oil supplies were almost completely wiped out after the war started in March. Since April, nothing has been coming in, said Nakamura, a director at Shin Etsu Denso, a Tokyobased autorepair company. Business has... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-iran-deal-may-not-bring-quick-relief-for-auto-shops-1781618877.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 08:30:11 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-may-new-home-prices-fall-faster-on-soft-demand-1781615605.html New home prices dip 0.2 in May from April May new home prices fall 3.5 yy, matching April39;s decline Property sales, investment fall more sharply in JanuaryMay BEIJING, June 16 Reuters China39;s new home prices fell at a slightly faster pace in May, official data showed on Tuesday, as the crisishit property sector continued to grapple with fragile demand, even as larger cities showed tentative signs of stabilisation. New home prices dipped 0.2 in May from the previous month, steepening from a 0.1 decline in April, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics data. On an annual basis, prices in May fell 3.5, matching the decline in April. The price falls dampened hopes that the real estate sector, which accounted for around a quarter of the economy at its peak, is close to bottoming out after a nearly fiveyear slump. The slump has not only crippled some of China39;s biggest property firms, but also turned a once key economic growth driver into a drag and weighed on overall household appetite for consumption. But Zhang Dawei, analyst at Centaline Property, said that the period of steep home price declines across China had passed and the market was not at risk of a rapid downturn. Zhang said the property market would continue to be characterised by resilience in tierone cities, divergence in tiertwo cities and pressure in tierthree cities. Property sales, investment, new construction and funds raised by developers all fell more sharply... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-may-new-home-prices-fall-faster-on-soft-demand-1781615605.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 07:50:47 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-economic-imbalance-deepens-as-retail-sales-fall-1781612992.html May data shows China39;s industry stronger but consumption weaker Property investment extends decline, new home prices fall Weather disruptions, economic transition affect investmentNBS Possible policy intervention may come in H2 2026, analysts say BEIJING, June 16 Reuters China39;s economy showed increasing unevenness in May, with retail sales falling for the first time in over three years and investment slumping, while industrial output picked up pace. Tuesday39;s official data highlighted a twospeed growth pattern in the world39;s secondlargest economy, with factories buoyed by surprisingly resilient exports but domestic demand weakening amid a multiyear property market downturn. Retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, slid 0.6 in May, data from the National Bureau of Statistics NBS showed, reversing April39;s 0.2 rise and below the estimated 0.0 in a Reuters poll. It was the first monthly fall since December 2022. The fragility was evident in the auto sector. A downturn in domestic car sales extended into an eighth consecutive month in May, underscoring softening demand in the world39;s largest auto market, where pressure is likely to persist through the rest of the year. Travellers39; spending during the fiveday Labour Day holiday in May was lukewarm, and the impact of the government39;s consumergoods tradein scheme is fading. A high base from May last year also contributed to the decline. At a bar in Shanghai39;s financial district, manager Jie39;ao Feng... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-economic-imbalance-deepens-as-retail-sales-fall-1781612992.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 07:40:18 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/peru-s-economy-beats-expectations-up-3-7-in-april-1781597891.html LIMA, Reuters Peru39;s economy expanded 3.73 in April from a year earlier, data from the government39;s INEI statistics agency showed on Monday, exceeding expectations as nearly all sectors posted growth. April39;s reading came above the 3.55 increase forecast by analysts polled by Reuters and compared with a 3.21 expansion in March. The result was driven by strength in construction and trade, which rose 12.88 and 7.31 respectively, in line with recent months as domestic demand underpinned growth. Fishing also posted gains during the month despite recent warnings from the central bank that weather risks linked to the El Niño phenomenon could weigh on the sector while electricity generation increased. By contrast, the key mining and hydrocarbons sector shrank 3.24 from a year earlier, while the agriculture sector contracted 1.64, according to INEI data. The country is also grappling with political uncertainty following a razortight presidential runoff. The initial vote count has finished, but electoral authorities are now reviewing hundreds of thousands of contested ballots, with no winner yet declared and the final result expected to take weeks. Despite years of political upheaval, the major copperproducing nation has long been one of the region39;s most stable economies. Reporting by Marco Aquino and Aida PelaezFernandez; Editing by Kylie Madry Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/peru-s-economy-beats-expectations-up-3-7-in-april-1781597891.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 07:30:14 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-may-silver-imports-hit-3-year-low-on-curbs-1781552815.html MUMBAI, June 15 Reuters India39;s silver imports plunged 87 in May from a year earlier to their lowest level in more than three years, government data showed on Monday, after the world39;s largest consumer of the metal tightened curbs on imports in nearly all forms. Lower imports by India, which meets more than 80 of its silver demand through overseas purchases, could weigh on global prices , while helping narrow the country39;s trade deficit and ease pressure on the rupee. Silver imports fell to 75.57 million in May from 566.22 million a year earlier, according to data compiled by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. In volume terms, imports dropped 94 yearonyear to 33 metric tons, the lowest since February 2023. India in midMay restricted imports of silver in nearly all forms with immediate effect. Earlier this month, it further tightened the rules by adding silver grain and powder to the restricted category and requiring prior import authorisation. The government has also raised import duties on gold and silver to 15 from 6 as part of efforts to curb precious metals imports and reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves amid elevated oil prices. There is demand, but imports have become difficult due to the restrictions, and local premiums have started to rise, said a Mumbaibased dealer with a private bullionimporting bank. India spent a record 12 billion on silver imports in the 202526 financial year ended March, compared with 4.8 billion a year earlier.... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-may-silver-imports-hit-3-year-low-on-curbs-1781552815.html Mon, 15 Jun 2026 07:20:14 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/salesforce-deepens-ai-automation-push-with-3-6b-fin-buyout-1781554206.html June 15 Reuters Salesforce on Monday said it will buy autonomous AI agent platform Fin for about 3.6 billion, bolstering its Agentforce offering as the business software provider deepens its focus on automation. The acquisition marks Salesforce39;s latest bet to accelerate its AI transition amid a wider industry shift toward autonomous agents. Salesforce has been reinventing itself as an AIagent company through Agentforce, which more than tripled annual recurring revenue to 1.2 billion in the first quarter. The company39;s 8 billion acquisition of AIpowered data management platform Informatica in May 2025 marked its return to large deals to strengthen data and automation capabilities. Fin39;s offering includes an AI agent that handles customer support queries across channels, including live chat, email, WhatsApp, SMS, phone and Slack. It counts firms such as Anthropic, Kalshi and Doordash among its customers. By joining forces with Salesforce, we can deploy it Fin far and wide at a rate far faster than we could have ever achieved on our own, Fin CEO Eoghan McCabe said. After the deal, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter of its current fiscal year, Salesforce said customers will have more ways to deploy AI agents in customer service operations, including options suited to small and midsize businesses. Shares of Salesforce edged higher in volatile trading but are down over 30 so far this year, as investor concerns over AI disrupting traditional... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/salesforce-deepens-ai-automation-push-with-3-6b-fin-buyout-1781554206.html Mon, 15 Jun 2026 06:50:29 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/rbi-tightens-rules-to-curb-mis-selling-bans-dark-patterns-1781552253.html MUMBAI, June 15 Reuters The Reserve Bank of India on Monday issued rules to curb misselling of financial products by lenders, banning deceptive marketing tactics and tightening norms around customer consent, disclosures and sales practices. The central bank has banned the use of dark patterns in digital interfaces, defining them as design or userexperience techniques that mislead or trick customers into taking actions they did not intend. Lenders and their agents will now be barred from employing such practices across websites, mobile apps and other sales channels, the RBI said. The directive follows announcements made by the RBI39;s governor in the central bank39;s monetary policy review in February. Lenders must subject their interfaces to periodic audits to identify and remove unfair features, the RBI said. The rules form part of amendments to the RBI39;s responsible business conduct directions and will come into force from January 1, 2027. The regulator also laid out a broad definition of misselling, which includes practices such as offering products that are unsuitable for the customer, providing misleading or inaccurate information, selling products without obtaining explicit consent from the customer, and mandatorily bundling products together. In cases where misselling of a financial productservice is established, the bank shall refund the entire amount ... and also intimate the customer about cancellation of the sale, the RBI said. Banks must obtain... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/rbi-tightens-rules-to-curb-mis-selling-bans-dark-patterns-1781552253.html Mon, 15 Jun 2026 06:30:38 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/imf-chief-sees-no-global-slowdown-yet-but-risks-are-high-1781541994.html WASHINGTON, June 15 Reuters The world economy is so far weathering the shock of the war in the Middle East despite a surge in commodity prices, higher inflation and strains in financial conditions, with no signs yet of a global slowdown, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said Monday. Georgieva, managing director of the global lender, welcomed Sunday39;s agreement by the U.S. and Iran to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but warned in a new blog that an intensification of the conflict of supply disruptions posed a clear risk to global growth. The IMF will release an updated forecast on July 8. In April, it issued three scenarios for global GDP growth in 2026 and 2027, with its middle adverse scenario calling for growth slowing down to 2.5 in 2026 and headline inflation of 5.4. Georgieva last month said that adverse scenario was already in play, but her latest comments suggest the fund may revert to its reference scenario, which assumed a shortlived Iran war and saw growth of 3.1 in 2026. The framework deal marks the biggest breakthrough towards resolving a war that began with joint U.S.Israeli strikes on Iran in February before escalating into a wider regional conflict that has killed thousands, upended energy markets and stoked recession fears for the global economy. More than three months into the war in the Middle East, the global economy appears to be holding up. Commodity prices, inflation and expectations for it, and financial conditions have all been... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/imf-chief-sees-no-global-slowdown-yet-but-risks-are-high-1781541994.html Mon, 15 Jun 2026 06:10:33 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-homebuilder-sentiment-falls-in-june-amid-rising-costs-1781554591.html WASHINGTON, June 15 Reuters U.S. homebuilder sentiment fell in June, weighed down by higher mortgage rates and costs for construction materials, a survey showed on Monday. The National Association of Home BuildersWells Fargo Housing Market index dropped two points to 35 this month. It was the 14th straight month that the index remained below 40, the longest such stretch since the 20112012 foreclosure crisis. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index staying steady at 37. The NAHB said rising material costs, elevated mortgage rates and ongoing affordability challenges continued to strain the housing market. Mortgage rates have risen as the U.S.Israel war on Iran drove up oil prices, boosting inflation and Treasury yields. With the nation short about 1.2 million homes, builder sentiment will remain soft until barriers are eased and conditions improve for home building, said NAHB chairman Bill Owens. Congress can help by passing the major housing package now before the Senate. The rate on the popular 30year fixedmortgage has risen more than 50 basis points since the conflict started at the end of February, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed. Washington and Tehran on Sunday said they had agreed terms to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Prior to the war, the housing market was under pressure from import tariffs, which raised prices of building materials as well as appliances. Residential investment, which includes homebuilding,... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-homebuilder-sentiment-falls-in-june-amid-rising-costs-1781554591.html Mon, 15 Jun 2026 05:10:59 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-may-trade-gap-narrows-us-trade-talks-in-focus-1781543414.html May trade deficit narrows to 28.21 bln vs 28.38 bln in April Exports rise to 45.2 billion, imports to 73.41 billion USTR Jamieson Greer to visit India on June 2324 U.S.Iran framework seen easing oil, shipping cost pressures NEW DELHI, June 15 Reuters India39;s merchandise trade deficit narrowed marginally in May as higher exports offset part of the import bill, while firms navigated volatile energy prices, Middle East disruptions and ongoing trade negotiations with the United States. The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to 28.21 billion in May from 28.38 billion in April, below economists39; forecast of 28.72 billion, a Reuters poll showed. Merchandise exports rose to 45.2 billion in May from 43.56 billion in the previous month, government data showed on Monday, while imports rose to 73.41 billion against a sixmonth high of 71.94 billion in April. The data underscores pressure on India to sustain exports and contain import costs as it seeks greater U.S. market access, with AprilMay goods exports nearly flat at 17.29 billion versus 17.21 billion a year earlier. Trade Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is due to visit India from June 23 to 24 for further talks on an interim trade agreement. Discussions with USTR will be centred around giving final touches to our interim deal, Agrawal told reporters, adding that New Delhi would seek clear answers on the USTR39;s proposed new tariffs under a Section 301 probe while finalising... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-may-trade-gap-narrows-us-trade-talks-in-focus-1781543414.html Mon, 15 Jun 2026 03:30:26 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/snb-to-keep-rates-at-0-this-year-and-next-experts-say-1781540480.html BENGALURU, June 15 Reuters The Swiss National Bank will keep its key policy rate at 0 on June 18 and for the rest of the year, according to all the economists who responded to a Reuters poll, as a stronger franc partly offset the impact of the energy price shock related to the U.S. war on Iran. Swiss inflation was 0.6 in May, comfortably within the SNBs 0 to 2 target band, even as other economies, including the U.S. and euro zone, felt the inflationary impact of surging fuel prices. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel recently said mediumterm inflation pressures had hardly changed, suggesting the central bank was unlikely to follow the European Central Bank, which raised rates last week. All 35 economists in the June 1115 Reuters poll predicted the SNB would keep its policy rate at 0 this week, already the lowest globally. All 28 who responded with forecasts until the end of 2026 saw rates staying there this year. Only four economists expected one or two quarterpoint rate rises in 2027. Energy components have supported headline inflation, albeit passthrough from energy prices into CPI has moderated ... On the flipside, the Swiss franc still represents a disinflationary force, said Chiara Angeloni, Europe economist at Bank of America. With those opposing forces from FX and energy prices at play and Switzerland39;s low inflation starting point, we think inflation pressures weigh less on the SNB than on most central banks ... Our base case remains the zerointerestrate policy... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/snb-to-keep-rates-at-0-this-year-and-next-experts-say-1781540480.html Mon, 15 Jun 2026 03:10:47 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-may-wpi-hits-9-68-on-mideast-war-fuel-surge-1781514428.html Wholesale fuel and power prices up 30.33 in May vs 24.89 in Apr Wholesale food inflation rises 3.60, manufactured goods up 7.48 Mineral oils, crude and gas, chemicals, metals led WPI in AprMay June 15 Reuters India39;s wholesale price inflation rose to 9.68 yearonyear in May, government data released on Monday showed, as the energy shock stemming from the conflict in the Middle East persisted. Wholesale inflation, which has a higher weightage of fuel products, is running sharply higher than India39;s retail inflation, which was at 3.93 in May. However, the sharp surge in wholesale prices is not seen impacting interest rates in the economy immediately, according to economists. The Indian central bank, which targets 4 retail inflation within a tolerance band of 2 to 6, kept rates unchanged at its meeting in June, signalling it will watch for any secondround impact of higher fuel prices before tightening monetary policy. Economists polled by Reuters had projected wholesale inflation rising to 9.05. The print stood at 8.26 in April. The data, the first print from the revised series with a base year of 202223, showed inflation rose at the fastest pace in six months under comparable numbers calculated by the government under the new series. Wholesale fuel and power prices jumped 30.33 yearonyear in May, against a rise of 24.89 in April, data showed. Petroleum and natural gas prices rose 61.51 in May. Crude prices have risen 27 since the U.S.Israeli war on Iran broke... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-may-wpi-hits-9-68-on-mideast-war-fuel-surge-1781514428.html Mon, 15 Jun 2026 10:50:45 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/taiwan-likely-to-hold-rates-steady-amid-inflation-fears-1781513611.html Rates seen unchanged by 27 out of 30 economists polled Taiwan economy expected to grow at fastest rate in 16 years Inflation last month hit highest level in more than a year Rate decision Thursday, June 18, after 400 p.m. 0800 GMT TAIPEI, June 15 Reuters Taiwan39;s central bank is expected to hold its policy interest rate steady this week and keep it in place into 2027, according to economists polled by Reuters, given the economy39;s strength, but inflation concerns could weigh looking ahead. In March, the central bank left its benchmark discount rate at 2, as expected. It last raised the rate by 0.125 percentage points from 1.875 in March 2024, in anticipation of a rise in electricity prices. At its next quarterly meeting on Thursday, the central bank is expected to keep the rate unchanged, according to 27 of the 30 economists surveyed. The three dissenting voices saw the central bank raising the rate to 2.125. Economists who provided forecasts beyond this week believed the bank would maintain its stance through the fourth quarter of 2027. Taiwan39;s techcentred, exportdependent economy has benefited from the artificial intelligence boom, which has driven orders for companies like TSMC, the world39;s largest contract chipmaker. The economy is expected to expand by 9.64 this year, the fastest pace in 16 years, the government39;s statistics agency said last month, after growing 8.68 in 2025. However, inflation rose above the central bank39;s 2 warning line in... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/taiwan-likely-to-hold-rates-steady-amid-inflation-fears-1781513611.html Mon, 15 Jun 2026 07:40:57 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-losing-jobs-abroad-due-to-high-energy-costs-firms-say-1781511238.html LONDON, June 15 Reuters Britain is losing manufacturing jobs abroad and risks the loss of major industries due to high energy costs, a manufacturing group and trade union body warned on Monday, urging the government to do more to reduce companies39; bills. Under an industrial strategy launched a year ago, Britain pledged to cut electricity costs for energyintensive industries by exempting them from certain green levies, and has since said the scheme will be expanded and backdated. But industry group Make UK said a survey of members showed more than half of firms had seen no benefit from the strategy, while a quarter had moved production abroad or were considering doing so. Britain faces deindustrialisation unless manufacturers get relief from high energy prices, said Stephen Phipson, chief executive of Make UK, calling for the scheme to be expanded to the whole industry and rolled out more quickly. We cannot afford to be delayed by political upheaval, or by further consultations. For the sake of thousands of jobs across Britain, the Government needs to step in and act now. Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces discontent among his Labour lawmakers after a series of Uturns and resignations. Some are backing Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham for a potential leadership challenge if he returns to parliament in a special election this week. The Iran war has driven energy prices higher for households and businesses, adding pressure on Starmer as competing pressures... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-losing-jobs-abroad-due-to-high-energy-costs-firms-say-1781511238.html Mon, 15 Jun 2026 07:30:22 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/german-spending-saves-gdp-from-falling-bundesbank-says-1781296163.html FRANKFURT, June 12 Reuters Heavy government spending on defence and infrastructure will stop Germany from slipping into recession this year, as the war in Iran takes its toll on Europe39;s biggest economy and lifts inflation, the Bundesbank said on Friday. Germanys economy has been broadly stagnant for the past three years, with a jump in spending expected to restart growth this year, only for a wardriven surge in energy prices to derail the recovery. The world39;s thirdlargest economy is now expected to grow just 0.5 in 2026, below the 0.6 forecast in December, while 2027 growth was cut to 0.8 from 1.3, the Bundesbank said a day after the ECB lowered its own euro zone growth forecast but still raised interest rates to combat inflation. Expansionary fiscal policy will be the only thing preventing a decline in gross domestic product in the summer halfyear, the Bundesbank said. It will more or less offset the impact of the war in the Middle East. The bank estimates that government spending, particularly on defence, will boost growth by a cumulative 1.3 percentage points up to 2028. But high energy costs will dampen households39; purchasing power while businesses may also be facing increasing supply bottlenecks and weaker demand. In addition, uncertainty and higher interest rates will also prove a drag on private investment, even if the impact of the war should fade over the coming years, the Bundesbank added. Risks are clearly tilted to the upside for inflation... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/german-spending-saves-gdp-from-falling-bundesbank-says-1781296163.html Fri, 12 Jun 2026 06:20:16 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-may-loans-miss-forecasts-as-property-slump-bites-1781269186.html New yuan loan rises less than expected in May Property slump, soft domestic demand drags continue PBOC publication commentary says slower loan growth doesnt imply weaker economic support BEIJING, June 12 Reuters China39;s new bank lending rose less than expected in May after contracting the previous month, as a prolonged property downturn continued to weigh on household borrowing. China39;s new yuan loans rose to 520 billion yuan 77 billion in May, recovering from a 10 billion yuan contraction in April but missing analysts39; forecasts, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the People39;s Bank of China. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected new yuan loans would total 550 billion yuan in May, compared with 620 billion yuan a year earlier. The PBOC does not provide monthly breakdowns. Reuters calculated the May figure based on the bank39;s JanuaryMay data released on Friday, compared with the JanuaryApril figure. Banks extended 9.11 trillion yuan in new loans in the January to May period, down from 10.68 trillion yuan in the same period last year, highlighting weak demand for borrowing due to a soft business environment, tepid consumer demand and a property downturn. Household loans, including mortgages, contracted by 141.2 billion yuan in May after a 786.9 billion yuan contraction in April, while corporate loans rose to 640 billion yuan from 390 billion yuan, according to Reuters39; calculations. New home sales in May in China continued to show... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-may-loans-miss-forecasts-as-property-slump-bites-1781269186.html Fri, 12 Jun 2026 03:30:29 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-may-inflation-hits-3-93-stays-below-rbi-target-1781269928.html India May CPI inflation rises in line with economists39; expectations Core inflation at 3.9 Kotak Institutional Equities May print highest in new inflation series, close to RBI target Fuel price hikes, weak monsoon seen lifting inflation outlook NEW DELHI, June 12 Reuters India39;s retail inflation rose to 3.93 in May, driven by higher food and fuel costs, government data showed on Friday, while risks related to the Middle East conflict and a weak monsoon threatened to add further price pressures. May39;s reading was marginally below the Reuters projection of 4.0 and remained close to the Reserve Bank of India39;s mediumterm target. It was also the highest reading under the revised inflation series introduced in January with a new base year and consumption basket. The data comes after stateowned fuel retailers raised fuel prices four times in May alone, pushing up transport inflation to 1.75, from a decline of 0.01 in April. Food inflation accelerated to 4.78 in May from 4.20 in April and could rise further if El Nino conditions weaken rainfall during the JuneSeptember monsoon season. We estimate inflation at 5.2 for fiscal 2027, with headline likely to cross 6 in thirdquarter FY27. Apart from elevated energy prices, El Ninorelated disruptions also pose upside risks to the inflation outlook ahead, said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist, HDFC Bank. The monsoon brings about 70 of India39;s annual rainfall and is critical for agriculture and rural incomes, with... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-may-inflation-hits-3-93-stays-below-rbi-target-1781269928.html Fri, 12 Jun 2026 03:10:35 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/exail-shares-dive-as-bond-clash-risks-higher-debt-costs-1781268555.html June 12 Reuters Shares in Exail Technologies plunged 17 on Friday after the underwater drone maker flagged a 380 million gap in perceived bond and share valuations with creditor ICG, as part of ongoing talks to refinance its debt. Exail said on Thursday evening the parties had failed to agree on the valuation of a potential redemption and repurchase of bonds and preference shares held by ICG in subsidiary Exail Holding. The French company39;s shares were on track for their worst trading day in more than two years as of 1140 GMT, after it warned this could lead to additional financing requirements. The dispute dates back to a 2022 financing deal linked to Exails acquisition of maritime robotics specialist iXblue. Under the agreement, ICG was to receive up to 18.7 of the value created beyond its received shares and bonds, analyst Julien Thomas from TP ICAP Midcap Partners said. The parties now disagree on how to measure that value, with ICG arguing it should be based solely on Exails share price, which has soared more than 410 since September 2022, rather than the broader multimethod valuation initially envisaged. Exail might be a victim of its own success, Thomas told Reuters, though he added he expected the disagreement to end in a friendly settlement with a cash premium of between 210 million and 477 million paid by Exail. At worst, the company may need to raise 170 million in bank debt which is overall not a major concern, Thomas said. Exail, which had... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/exail-shares-dive-as-bond-clash-risks-higher-debt-costs-1781268555.html Fri, 12 Jun 2026 02:50:37 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-public-inflation-expectations-surged-after-iran-war-boe-1781294393.html LONDON, June 12 Reuters The British public39;s expectations for inflation in the long term rose to a record high last month after the U.S.Israeli war on Iran sent energy prices soaring, the Bank of England39;s quarterly inflation attitudes survey showed on Friday. The public39;s median expectation for the rate of inflation in the year ahead increased to 4 from 3.2 in February. For inflation in five years39; time, expectations rose to 3.9 in May from 3.7 in February their highest level since BoE records for this time series began in 2009 and far above the BoE39;s target for consumer price inflation of 2.0. BoE policymakers monitor the public39;s inflation expectations carefully for signs that price pressures are becoming permanently embedded in consumer behaviour. Reporting by Suban Abdulla, editing by Andy Bruce Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-public-inflation-expectations-surged-after-iran-war-boe-1781294393.html Fri, 12 Jun 2026 12:50:14 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-eu-near-deadline-on-11-5b-jet-dispute-tariffs-1781199024.html BRUSSELS, June 11 Reuters The United States and the European Union have yet to decide whether to continue suspending or to reimpose tariffs on 11.5 billion of goods in a decadeslong dispute over aircraft subsidies with just days to go before their truce expires. The two sides in 2004 lodged parallel cases at the World Trade Organization over subsidies for U.S. plane maker Boeing and European rival Airbus, accusing each other of unfair competition. The WTO in 2019 authorised the United States to impose tariffs on 7.5 billion of EU goods, such as cheese, in the case against Airbus. A year later, it gave the EU the right to respond with countermeasures on 4 billion of U.S. imports, including tobacco and spirits. On June 15, 2021, both sides agreed to suspend these tariffs for five years. A European Commission spokesperson said on Thursday that discussions were ongoing to extend the suspension. The two sides said in 2021 they aimed to work on an overarching agreement on subsidies for large aircraft and to counter investments in aircraft by nonmarket actors, meaning China. They said then they expected the dispute would be resolved within five years. Instead, tariff tensions have risen, with the European Union facing fees on most of its exports to the United States, although aircraft and aircraft parts are excluded. Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop; editing by Barbara Lewis Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-eu-near-deadline-on-11-5b-jet-dispute-tariffs-1781199024.html Thu, 11 Jun 2026 06:30:17 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/slow-exits-tight-cash-hang-over-pe-berlin-conference-1781254445.html Private equity firms face prolonged liquidity crunch as exits and distributions slow Deal activity and fundraising stall amid market shocks Investors want fewer relationships and greater scale BERLIN, June 11 Reuters Weak cash distributions to investors in recent years are making it harder for private equity firms to raise new money, an issue dominating discussions among dealmakers gathered in Berlin this week for the industrys largest annual conference. The industry is in the midst of a prolonged liquidity crunch, with a growing number of companies stuck in portfolios as exits remain subdued, consultancy Bain Co said in a report. Private equity firms now hold assets for around seven years on average, beyond the traditional three to five years, Bain said, while the backlog of unsold companies has climbed to about 33,000. That matters because limited partners like pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and endowments rely on cash distributions to recycle capital. With less money coming back, investors are slowing new commitments. LPs want to see money coming back in order to reinvest, said Nicolas Brugere, a partner at Swedish buyout firm EQT, adding that shifts in the market were favouring larger, more established managers as investors consolidate relationships. Private capital fundraising reached 337 billion across 956 funds so far this year, according to LSEG data, compared with 747 billion raised across 1,970 funds in all of 2025. The industry is... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/slow-exits-tight-cash-hang-over-pe-berlin-conference-1781254445.html Thu, 11 Jun 2026 05:30:23 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/high-us-mortgage-rates-to-keep-housing-market-subdued-poll-1781193379.html BENGALURU, June 11 Reuters High mortgage rates will keep turnover in U.S. residential housing subdued this year and next with very modest price rises, according to property specialists surveyed by Reuters, thwarting the Trump administration39;s aim to revive the market. The benchmark 30year mortgage rate, which underpins most U.S. home loans, has hovered around 6.6 in recent months. That is much higher than the average 4.3 in the previous decade and is not expected to fall meaningfully any time soon. The Federal Reserve is no longer expected to cut interest rates this year, according to a separate Reuters poll of economists, while financial markets are pricing a December hike. That suggests prospects for a market revival might be bleaker than the poll results suggest. Median forecasts from the June 1 to June 11 survey showed the 30year mortgage rate at 6.4 next quarter and 6.3 in the fourth. The 30year mortgage rate is forecast to average more than 6.0 through 2028, roughly 25 basis points higher than in a survey taken three months ago. Average home prices as measured by the SP Cotality CaseShiller 20City Index were forecast to rise just 1.2 this year even slower than last years 14year low of 1.4 and 2.0 next, weaker than March forecasts and well below U.S. inflation. We39;ve gotten to a point where it is becoming increasingly challenging for the typical American to get on the housing ladder, said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. The average... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/high-us-mortgage-rates-to-keep-housing-market-subdued-poll-1781193379.html Thu, 11 Jun 2026 05:10:05 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-may-producer-prices-beat-forecasts-on-energy-jump-1781189571.html WASHINGTON, June 11 Reuters U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in May, leading to the largest annual gain in 312 years as the Middle East conflict drove up the cost of energy products. The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 1.1 last month after a downwardly revised 1.1 surge in April, the Labor Department39;s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI climbing 0.7 after a previously reported 1.4 jump in April. In the 12 months through May, the PPI increased 6.5, the biggest rise since November 2022. A 2.8 increase in the price of goods, mostly energy products, accounted for nearly 80 of the rise in the PPI. Prices for services gained 0.3. The U.S.Israeli war with Iran has raised prices of energy products, including gasoline and diesel. Global supply chains have been strained by the restriction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, causing shortages of a wide range of goods, including fertilizers, aluminum and consumer products. The government reported on Wednesday that consumer inflation jumped above 4 in May for the first time in three years. The U.S. central bank tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditures price indexes for its 2 inflation target. Rising inflation together with labor market stability have led financial markets to price in a rate increase from the Federal Reserve. But economists view the bar as high for policy tightening, arguing that the oil price shock so far remains... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-may-producer-prices-beat-forecasts-on-energy-jump-1781189571.html Thu, 11 Jun 2026 04:00:38 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-slightly-amid-jobs-strength-1781188264.html WASHINGTON, June 11 Reuters The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased marginally last week, pointing to continued labor market resilience in early June. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 229,000 for the week ended June 6, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 219,000 claims for the latest week. Claims tend to rise at the start of summer as some states allow nonteaching staff to file for unemployment benefits during the long school holidays. Seasonal factors, the model used by the government to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data, do not always capture these moves. The economy notched a third straight month of strong employment gains in May, the government reported last week. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3, the third month in a row. Some of the strength in job growth is likely from low layoffs. A National Federation of Independent Business survey this week showed its employment measure dropped in May for the third consecutive month, while the share of owners planning to create new jobs in the next three months fell to a sixyear low. Economists say hiring has been constrained by policy uncertainty, including import tariffs last year and now the U.S.led war with Iran. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.795 million during... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-slightly-amid-jobs-strength-1781188264.html Thu, 11 Jun 2026 03:40:40 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/alcohol-drinking-will-shrink-in-next-decade-research-finds-1781192877.html Alcohol sector hit by slumping sales, shares Population growth, demand from newer markets will eventually drive growth Consumption still expected to be 1 lower by 2035 versus 2025 LONDON, June 11 Reuters Global alcohol consumption is set to drop over the next decade, despite population growth and rising demand in India, which is set to become the world39;s biggest drinks market after China, according to market research firm IWSR. Sales from across the sector, including Johnnie Walker whisky maker Diageo and AnheuserBusch InBev, which owns beer labels Corona and Stella Artois, have contracted since 2023 and stock market valuations have shrunk. After a postpandemic boom, drinks makers say a surge in living costs, together with changing consumer habits, health concerns and the rise of weightloss drugs, which may impact users39; drinking rates, have had a major impact on demand. In its first 10year forecast spanning 160 markets, IWSR said it did not expect global alcohol consumption volumes to stop falling until after 2031. Even by 2035, they will be 1 below volumes last year, despite a 9 rise in the global number of legalage drinkers, it predicted. People will be drinking less, with global annual per capita litres of pure alcohol set to drop by the equivalent of two bottles of spirits or a case of wine per person per year by then, it said. Marten Lodewijks, President and Managing Director of IWSR, said changing consumer tastes were a major challenge and companies... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/alcohol-drinking-will-shrink-in-next-decade-research-finds-1781192877.html Thu, 11 Jun 2026 02:10:20 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/pakistan-survey-projects-fy26-gdp-growth-at-3-7-1781178948.html ISLAMABAD, June 11 Reuters Pakistan39;s annual economic survey projected real GDP growth at 3.7 for the fiscal year ending June 2026, according to the report released on Thursday. Here are some details from the report Average CPI inflation was seen at 6.7 in the JulyMay period, the survey said, adding that price stability was broadly preserved despite the Gulf conflict and its impact on energy prices. The South Asian nation39;s current account deficit was at 252 million in the JulyApril period. Pakistan39;s trade deficit from July to March stood at 23.53 billion, the document showed. Fiscal deficit was at 0.7 of GDP in the JulyMarch period, which the survey said was the strongest fiscal performance in decades. The primary surplus was seen at 3.2 of GDP and public debt by the end of March was 83,285 billion rupees, the document showed. Overall, fiscal performance remains encouraging, the survey said, supported by expenditure control, revenue mobilisation, provincial surpluses, and ongoing fiscal reforms. Reporting by Ariba Shahid and Mubasher Bukhari, writing by Shanima Aniyeri and Shilpa Jamkhandikar; Editing by YP Rajesh Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/pakistan-survey-projects-fy26-gdp-growth-at-3-7-1781178948.html Thu, 11 Jun 2026 01:30:01 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/wbank-says-indonesia-2026-gdp-to-slow-to-5-on-fiscal-strain-1781171486.html JAKARTA, June 11 Reuters The World Bank said on Thursday that Indonesia39;s economic growth was expected to slow to 5 in 2026 as it comes under increasing fiscal strain from an ambitious spending programme and the rising cost of fuel subsidies in the wake of the Iran war. The forecast by the World Bank is lower than Indonesia39;s growth projections of 5.4 to 6. Indonesia has been dogged by heavy capital outflows this year, with the rupiah sinking to record lows and the stock market plunging more than 30 in response to investor concerns about President Prabowo Subianto39;s big spending plans, even as fuel subsidies from the state budget balloon. The 2026 projection reflects strongerthanexpected Q1 outcomes and frontloaded public spending, rather than a more benign external environment or assessment of risks, the World Bank39;s assessment of Indonesia39;s economy said. It said the growth rate relied on the ability of the government39;s fiscal stimuli to drive public consumption, which brings about risk because of the country39;s limited room to manoeuvre when it comes to spending. Higher oil prices raised the cost of energy subsidies and compensation, while rupiah depreciation increased external debtservicing costs, the report said. The World Bank called on the government to gradually readjust fuel subsidies to stem the rising fiscal pressure. Indonesia has been using state finances to keep fuel prices unchanged, a move aimed at shoring up public support. It... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/wbank-says-indonesia-2026-gdp-to-slow-to-5-on-fiscal-strain-1781171486.html Thu, 11 Jun 2026 11:50:19 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/thai-farm-debt-crisis-deepens-in-early-test-for-anutin-1781172014.html Polls show falling public confidence in Anutin39;s government Government subsidy measures seen as insufficient for farmers Over half of farm borrowers at state bank trapped in debt Rising costs linked to Iran conflict worsen debt burden BANGKOK, June 11 Reuters Ahead of Thailand39;s February general election, politicians often came to court voters like 69yearold rice farmer Chaon Taiupok in Ayutthaya, about 80 km 50 miles north of the capital, Bangkok. Once they won and formed the government, they disappeared, said Chaon, who is struggling to make ends meet as rising costs of fuel and fertiliser triggered by the Iran war combine with falling rice prices to hammer farmers. Retail diesel prices in Thailand surged by more than 60 at their peak as a result of the conflict, while fertiliser costs have risen by more than 30. The government is not tackling the problem, Chaon said. Chaon39;s discontent reflects the growing political risk confronting Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who won a landslide election victory with the backing of rural voters but is now facing the heat as a wardriven price shock deepens Thailand39;s farm debt crisis. Only months into its fouryear term, support for Anutin39;s administration is already eroding. About 57 of respondents told a poll by Suan Dusit University in May they had little or no expectation of the government39;s performance, a sharp reversal from March when 68 of those polled had expressed optimism. The government... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/thai-farm-debt-crisis-deepens-in-early-test-for-anutin-1781172014.html Thu, 11 Jun 2026 11:10:28 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-set-for-insurance-hike-as-iran-war-fans-inflation-1781173579.html ECB set to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023 Inflation projections expected to be revised up Two more hikes expected in the next year Economists are split on tightening as growth is weak FRANKFURT, June 11 Reuters The European Central Bank is all but certain to raise interest rates on Thursday in the hope of nipping higher inflation in the bud before a surge in energy costs triggered by the Iran war spreads more broadly across the euro zone economy. The welltelegraphed move would come as inflation in the 21country currency bloc is already above 3, well in excess of the ECB39;s 2 target, and economic growth is very weak  a backdrop that has economists split over the case for tighter policy. ECB policymakers, some of whom had already pushed for action in April, are nonetheless expected to press ahead, seeking to keep a lid on inflation expectations and to safeguard their credibility after being slow to react to a postpandemic inflation spike in 2022. The ECB needs to hike to protect credibility and prevent inflation expectations from deanchoring, but it is still operating around neutral rather than moving decisively into restrictive territory, Annalisa Piazza at MFS Investment Management said. Thursday39;s hike would be the first in nearly three years and take the ECB39;s benchmark deposit rate to 2.25 from 2.0. Sources have told Reuters the ECB is unlikely to commit to further rate rises this week but financial markets expect another two over... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-set-for-insurance-hike-as-iran-war-fans-inflation-1781173579.html Thu, 11 Jun 2026 10:10:13 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/once-embargo-victim-us-becomes-world-s-top-oil-exporter-1781162148.html US oil exports surge as Saudi, Russian exports disrupted by conflict and sanctions EU officials warn of risks in growing dependence on US energy supplies US oil boom driven by private firms, contrasting with stateled output in rivals HOUSTON, June 11 Reuters The United States has become the world39;s largest oil exporter, upending a decadesold order long dominated by Saudi Arabia and Russia, a shift that tightens American companies39; grip on energy markets as Washington39;s war with Iran reshapes global energy trade. America39;s ascendancy to the top spot marks a stunning reversal for a country that was dependent on Middle Eastern oil for decades and suffered from an oil embargo imposed by some OPEC members in 1973 to retaliate against U.S. support for Israel. U.S. fortunes began to change after 2010, when oil and gas output from its shale formations soared, first making it the world39;s top gas and then the world39;s top oil producer. With the U.S.Iran war disrupting Saudi oil exports since February 2026 and Russian oil exports suffering from Ukrainian drone attacks and U.S. sanctions on Moscow for the invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. has become the world39;s leading oil exporter. U.S. exports of crude and fuel climbed to about 10.5 million barrels per day in May on the back of high output and the release of strategic reserves, data from ship tracking services Vortexa showed, making the U.S. the top global exporter for the third month in a row. Russian exports... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/once-embargo-victim-us-becomes-world-s-top-oil-exporter-1781162148.html Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:20:07 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-consumer-inflation-breaks-above-4-as-iran-war-raises-energy-prices-1781118508.html Consumer Price Index increases 0.5 in May, meets expectations Consumer prices advance 4.2 yearonyear, largest gain in three years Core CPI rises 0.2 as motor vehicle insurance prices post biggest drop since 2020 WASHINGTON, June 10 Reuters U.S. consumer inflation increased at its fastest pace in three years in May, boosted by surging prices for energy products amid the Middle East conflict, and giving more ammunition for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged into 2027. The third straight month of strong increases in the Consumer Price Index reported by the Labor Department on Wednesday underscored the mounting pressure on households, who are increasingly tapping their savings to fund spending. Inflation eroded wages for a second consecutive month in May, which could weigh on overall economic growth. The soaring cost of living is a political liability for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party, seeking to retain control of Congress in the midterm elections in November. Trump won the 2024 presidential election in large part because of his promise to lower inflation, but has seen his approval rating tumble as frustration mounts over his handling of the economy. Americans are getting squeezed financially by inflation, said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. It39;s not just bad vibes about the economy now, there are real financial pressures, especially on middleclass and lowerincome households. The Consumer Price Index... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-consumer-inflation-breaks-above-4-as-iran-war-raises-energy-prices-1781118508.html Wed, 10 Jun 2026 08:30:59 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/indonesia-hikes-fuel-price-32-amid-inflation-fears-1781108605.html JAKARTA, June 10 Reuters Indonesian state firm Pertamina has raised some fuel prices by almost a third in the first increase since the Iran war began, and the finance minister said there would be limited impact on inflation amid investor concerns about government spending. The price of 92octane gasoline, known as Pertamax and widely used by the country39;s middle class, has been raised to 16,250 rupiah 0.9053 per litre from 12,300 rupiah per litre, a 32.1 increase. Pertamax Green, a 95octane fuel blended with ethanol, has been raised to 17,000 rupiah per litre from 12,900 rupiah per litre, a 31.8 rise. The Pertamax fuels are normally not subsidised, and it was not known if Pertamina would be compensated for keeping the price unchanged since the war began. The price rises came after Bank Indonesia unexpectedly raised interest rates for the second time in a month on Tuesday to shore up confidence in the currency and budget data last week showed the cost of subsidies for fuel, power and fertilisers had jumped 208 in May from a year earlier. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the inflationary impact of the price rises was expected to be limited because the fuels are not used for public transportation. The annual headline inflation rate accelerated to an eightmonth high of 3.08 in May. DBS Bank senior economist Radhika Rao said the affected fuels accounted for about 7 of domestic fuel sales and 7.5 of energy consumption in the transportation sector in 2023. She... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/indonesia-hikes-fuel-price-32-amid-inflation-fears-1781108605.html Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:20:08 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/higher-gasoline-prices-likely-pushed-up-us-may-inflation-1781091994.html Consumer Price Index forecast increasing 0.5 in May Yearonyear CPI estimated to have jumped 4.2, biggest rise since April 2023 Core CPI monthly increase expected to slow as onetime bump to shelter related to government shutdown fades WASHINGTON, June 10 Reuters U.S. consumer inflation likely increased at its fastest pace in three years in May as the Middle East conflict raised prices of energy products, which would provide more ammunition for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this year. The anticipated third straight month of strong yearonyear Consumer Price Index readings from the Labor Department on Wednesday is expected to highlight mounting pressure on households as evidence suggests more consumers are dipping into savings to finance their spending. Inflation is likely to outpace wage growth in May for a second straight month, a development that could weigh on overall economic growth. The soaring cost of living is a political liability for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party, seeking to retain control of Congress in the midterm elections in November. Trump won the 2024 presidential election in large part because of his promise to lower inflation, but has seen his approval rating tumble as frustration mounts over his handling of the economy. The topline increase in inflation will outpace wage growth for the second consecutive month, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. What that means is Americans are seeing their... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/higher-gasoline-prices-likely-pushed-up-us-may-inflation-1781091994.html Wed, 10 Jun 2026 11:50:42 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-s-domestic-car-demand-under-pressure-association-exec-1781104169.html BEIJING, June 10 Reuters China39;s domestic car demand has declined more sharply than expected at the start of the year and will likely remain under heavy pressure throughout 2026, an auto association executive said on Wednesday. Stabilizing domestic demand this year should be regarded as a very important task for the automotive industry, said Chen Shihua, deputy secretarygeneral of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers CAAM. China39;s total vehicle sales dropped 2.1 in May from a year earlier, while sales at home slid 20.4 year on year, CAAM data showed on Wednesday. Vehicle exports jumped 68.7 on year last month to remain as a key driver of the sector that has increasingly relied on overseas shipments to offset domestic weakness. Reporting by Qiaoyi Li and Jumin Park; Editing by Tom Hogue Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-s-domestic-car-demand-under-pressure-association-exec-1781104169.html Wed, 10 Jun 2026 11:10:48 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-ftse-indexes-hover-at-three-week-llws-wh-smith-dives-1781106458.html June 10 Reuters UK39;s main FTSE indexes hovered near threeweek lows on Wednesday as investors eyed a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, while mulling the outlook for companies following a grim report from travel retailer WH Smith. The bluechip FTSE 100 index and the midcap FTSE 250 inched up 0.2 each by 0752 GMT. WH Smith tanked 16.4 to its lowest since late 2010 after cutting its annual profit forecast for the second time in two months on and launched an equity raise to bolster its finances as the Iran war disrupts global travel and hurts passenger spending. The stock was the top decliner on the midcap index. Banks were among top sectoral decliners with a 1 fall, as shares of Hong Kong exposed HSBC and Standard Chartered lost 1.9 and 0.8, respectively. The lenders have been under pressure since Beijing unveiled tighter capital controls to limit cross border investments and brokerage J.P.Morgan said the impact could be greater than previously anticipated. Middle East tensions were high as the U.S. and Iran traded fresh fire, although crude prices stayed steady, offering some relief to investors as they looked for details on the deal to open the Strait of Hormuz that President Donald Trump said is on the horizon. Inflation concerns, due to elevated crude prices, have had investors price in a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of England by September, according to LSEGcompiled data. U.S. inflation data later in the day could also offer... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-ftse-indexes-hover-at-three-week-llws-wh-smith-dives-1781106458.html Wed, 10 Jun 2026 11:10:31 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-s-factory-gate-inflation-at-nearly-4-year-high-in-may-1781097575.html Producer prices rise for third month, exceed market forecasts on energy price shock, AI push Consumer prices extend yy gains, fuelled by rising gasoline prices Passing on input cost pressures challenging for nonAI related sectors BEIJING, June 10 Reuters China39;s producer prices rose for a third straight month in May to the highest since July 2022, while consumer prices stayed elevated as global energy prices piled cost pressures on manufacturers and drove up costs of living for households. Cost pressures from the Iran war could squeeze corporate profits and further subdue domestic consumption, although global AIrelated demand provided a boost for some sectors. For manufacturers not in advanced manufacturing, passing higher input prices to consumers could remain difficult, highlighting headwinds policymakers face in their efforts to support the job market and bolster stillsoft domestic demand. The producer price index PPI rose 3.9 from a year earlier, National Bureau of Statistics data showed on Wednesday, above a 3.8 forecast in a Reuters poll and 2.8 rise in April. In industries where demand is solid, such as AI, firms can pass on higher input cost and even charge end consumers a markup, said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. That is not the case for industries such as automotives, he said. Stronger demand for computing power contributed to an increase in the PPI, NBS said in a statement, pointing to rising prices in... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-s-factory-gate-inflation-at-nearly-4-year-high-in-may-1781097575.html Wed, 10 Jun 2026 10:10:25 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-firms-use-quiet-layoffs-amid-beijing-s-ai-push-1781090702.html Chinese firms quietly cut jobs as AI tools replace roles, avoiding mass layoffs to maintain stability Labour laws and political concerns drive gradual, smallscale layoffs instead of largescale cuts AI adoption outpaces job creation, raising youth unemployment and worker anxiety, analysts and surveys show BEIJING, June 10 Reuters Liu, a Hangzhoubased contractor at a large Chinese internet firm, says her employer began quietly firing contractors in March after it ordered staff to use AI tools including AI agent OpenClaw, which saw lightningfast adoption in China this year. While she does not know the full scope of the layoffs, her employer has also started reducing graduate hiring as Chinese companies race to implement AI systems. The tasks most people do can be completely replaced by OpenClaw. After a person writes all their workflows into OpenClaw... they can basically be fired, said the 26yearold, who asked not to use her full name or her company due to the sensitivity of the subject. While companies around the world are grappling with AI adoption, Chinese firms face a unique challenge Beijing wants companies to adopt AI fast enough to transform productivity, but not so fast or visibly that workers are pushed out in numbers that threaten social stability. Liu39;s company is among a number of Chinese enterprises quietly implementing smallscale layoffs as they seek AIlinked productivity gains without attracting government scrutiny, nine workers from industries... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-firms-use-quiet-layoffs-amid-beijing-s-ai-push-1781090702.html Wed, 10 Jun 2026 09:20:50 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/fuel-price-shock-to-widen-product-gap-between-us-airlines-1781089470.html United says brandloyal carriers are pulling ahead Southwest says weaker rivals may slow investment Alaska says loyalty, premium revenue soften fuel hit RIO DE JANEIRO, Reuters The fuel shock hitting U.S. airlines is doing more than squeezing margins it is widening a product gap that may take years to close, as stronger carriers keep investing in lounges, premium seating, technology and international networks that weaker rivals may struggle to match. At the International Air Transport Association39;s IATA annual meeting in Rio de Janeiro, executives at financially strong carriers United Airlines, Southwest Airlines and Alaska Air told Reuters a divide was growing between airlines with the ability to keep upgrading their offerings and those forced to conserve cash and slow investment. The U.S. also has an increasingly Kshaped economy, where higherincome consumers continue to spend freely while pricesensitive travelers pull back. The airlines39; investment in premium offerings is designed to increase their appeal among the high spenders. Air travel is not a commodity, United CEO Scott Kirby said in an interview. Customers care about the technology, the service, the reliability, the product. They want a great experience. They don39;t just want a seat. Kirby said United expects to recover the full hit from higher fuel costs through fare increases by yearend, even as he anticipates some pressure on demand. The airline is continuing to invest heavily in aircraft,... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/fuel-price-shock-to-widen-product-gap-between-us-airlines-1781089470.html Wed, 10 Jun 2026 09:00:06 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/kalshi-bets-on-compliance-to-curb-insider-trading-risk-1781080826.html Reuters Prediction market Kalshi said on Tuesday it will mandate employment disclosures for users trading on sensitive contracts and launch a whistleblower portal, steps aimed at aligning the platform with regulatory expectations for market integrity. The move by Kalshi marks a shift toward building institutionalgrade infrastructure, as it seeks to address regulatory risks, including concerns over market manipulation and insider trading. The prediction market operator said the measures, effective immediately, are based on recommendations from an independent Surveillance Audit Committee established to oversee its market integrity and enforcement program. Prediction markets, which allow users to trade contracts tied to the outcome of future events, have grown popular in recent years, drawing scrutiny from lawmakers over concerns about market manipulation on insider trading on their exchanges. These markets have been plagued with suspicious trades, with Reuters reporting last week that U.S. federal regulators are investigating whether former congressman George Santos engaged in potential insider trading on Kalshi. Under the new framework, Kalshi will assign risk scores to markets based on factors such as corporate performance metrics, product launches, outcome concentration, national security implications and the potential for manipulation. By implementing these new integrity measures, we continue to lead the industry on the issue of market integrity amongst federally... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/kalshi-bets-on-compliance-to-curb-insider-trading-risk-1781080826.html Wed, 10 Jun 2026 07:50:46 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/rbnz-inflation-focus-tested-as-hikes-risk-jobs-crisis-1781080206.html Government removed employment from central bank mandate in 2023 RBNZ is preparing to raise rates despite labour market weakness Poses a challenge for National Party ahead of November election Opposition Labour Party eyes reinstating dual mandate if elected WELLINGTON, June 10 Reuters New Zealand39;s jobless ranks could swell as the central bank ratchets up interest rates, casting the government39;s inflationfocused mandate in an unflattering light ahead of a closely contested general election, and raising the prospect of a return to the dual mandate if it loses power. The conundrum for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is that although policymakers expect the energy shock from the Iran war to push inflation to 4.3 in coming months far above the 1 to 3 target band it comes with the jobless rate hovering at a decade high. The policy choice, however, is clear, because the National Partyled coalition government removed the obligation to support full employment from the central bank39;s mandate in 2023, fulfilling a campaign pledge in one of its first acts after taking office. We have secondary objectives around not creating unnecessary volatility in output and employment, RBNZ Assistant Governor Karen Silk told Reuters, but the primary objective around inflation is absolutely front and centre of mind. The RBNZ forewent a rate hike at its meeting last month in the closest call in its history, but projected a minimum of two quarterpoint hikes by yearend. At the same... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/rbnz-inflation-focus-tested-as-hikes-risk-jobs-crisis-1781080206.html Wed, 10 Jun 2026 07:40:23 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-increase-more-than-expected-in-may-1781017897.html WASHINGTON, June 9 Reuters U.S. existing home sales increased more than expected in May, though rising mortgage rates and stilltight inventory remain a challenge for the housing market. Home sales jumped 3.2 last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.170 million units, the National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales advancing to a rate of 4.07 million units. Sales increased in the Northeast, South and Midwest regions, but were unchanged in the West. Home resales, which are counted at the closing of a contract, increased 3.2 yearonyear in May. More Americans are on the move, with home sales rising to the highest level since December, said Lawrence Yun, the NAR39;s chief economist. This is great news for the housing market. Last month39;s sales likely reflected contracts signed in March and April. Mortgage rates started rising in March as the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, before easing towards the end of April following a ceasefire. The Middle East conflict is fanning inflation, through higher prices for energy and other products that are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. That has helped to lift U.S. Treasury yields, which mortgages track. The average rate on the popular 30year fixedrate mortgage has increased by about 50 basis points since the war started at the end of February. With prospects of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve fading amid rising inflation and a resilient labor... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-increase-more-than-expected-in-may-1781017897.html Tue, 09 Jun 2026 05:30:40 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/mexico-may-inflation-slows-hits-central-bank-s-target-1781012604.html MEXICO CITY, June 9 Reuters Mexico39;s annual inflation rate decelerated for a second month in a row in May, official data showed on Tuesday, returning to the higher end of the central bank39;s target range. Consumer prices in Latin America39;s secondlargest economy rose 3.94 in the year through May, easing from a 4.45 increase the prior month and landing lower than economists39; forecasts for a 4.2 increase in a Reuters poll. Mexico39;s central bank, also known as Banxico, has an inflation target range of 3, plus or minus a percentage point, and expects the rate to hit its aimed 3 in the second quarter of 2027. In May alone, consumer prices registered a biggerthanexpected decline, down 0.21 from the month before, according to nonseasonally adjusted figures, compared with economists39; expectations of a 0.12 decline. The closely watched core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.22 during the month, and on annual terms it slowed to 4.19, down from 4.26 in April. Reporting by Aida PelaezFernandez and Carlos Serrano; Editing by Alex Richardson Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/mexico-may-inflation-slows-hits-central-bank-s-target-1781012604.html Tue, 09 Jun 2026 03:40:46 +0300