https://www.gurutrade.com/news/economic/rss/ In this section gathered the recent economic events that have a strong influence on the currency market. Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:33:43 +0300 50 en https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-home-builder-sentiment-ticks-up-in-august-but-remains-weak-1787000228.html Aug 17 Reuters U.S. home builder sentiment unexpectedly ticked higher in August, but residential construction firms39; confidence remains weak overall, weighed down by economic uncertainty, high mortgage rates and steep building costs aggravated by the U.S.led war with Iran, a survey showed on Monday. The National Association of Home BuildersWells Fargo Housing Market index rose one point to a reading of 35 this month from July39;s unrevised level of 34. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would decline for a third straight month to 33. A NAHB subindex measuring current sales of singlefamily homes ticked up to 39, the highest since May, from 37 in July, while measures of future sales and prospective buyer foot traffic were both unchanged. On a regional basis, sentiment edged up in the Northeast, South and West and was unchanged in the Midwest. The national index level in August marked the 16th straight month it has remained below 40, the longest such stretch since 2012. Indeed, the index has not breached the 50 level demarking business conditions that builders consider to be positive in more than two years. While builder sentiment edged higher in August, builders continue to contend with high construction costs and broader economic uncertainty, NAHB Chairman Bill Owens, a home builder and remodeler from Worthington, Ohio, said in a statement. Rising gas and diesel prices are pushing up material costs, and spec home building remains weak as many... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-home-builder-sentiment-ticks-up-in-august-but-remains-weak-1787000228.html Mon, 17 Aug 2026 05:10:33 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/second-wave-of-fuel-shortages-hits-russian-gas-stations-1786996342.html MOSCOW, Aug 17 Reuters Fuel shortages have returned to some regions of Russia in August, prompting local authorities in at least 10 regions to again tighten controls on sales of motor fuel at petrol stations, according to authorities and regional media. Reuters witnesses reported on Monday that gasoline was once again unavailable at some fuel stations in the Moscow region, although diesel fuel was available at almost all stations. The fuel crisis, which began gaining momentum in May and by July had spread to almost all regions of Russia, follows the shutdown of several refineries hit in drone attacks and a seasonal rise in demand. To increase fuel supplies to the domestic market, the authorities introduced a ban on exports of gasoline and diesel fuel, lowered quality requirements and began importing petroleum products. By the end of July, the situation had stabilised, and in some regions restrictions were lifted or significantly eased. However, this respite did not last long. A new wave of drone attacks on oil refineries in late July and early August triggered another round of restrictions. The situation with fuel supplies to petrol stations remained difficult in a number of regions across the country, the Russian government said in a statement on Friday, when energy officials discussed the fuel supply situation especially in the Orenburg, Lipetsk, Tver, Krasnodar, Zabaykalsky, Primorsky, Krasnoyarsk, Oryol, Tuva and Khakassia regions. Sales of gasoline have fallen... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/second-wave-of-fuel-shortages-hits-russian-gas-stations-1786996342.html Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:50:55 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/japan-q2-growth-misses-forecasts-on-weak-spending-1786973151.html AprilJune GDP rises annualised 1.1 vs f39;cast 2.0 Consumption flat on what analysts attribute to oneoff factors Bond yields hit 30year high as markets focus on inflation risks Weak GDP unlikely to alter nearterm BOJ rate hike prospect Rising inflation, Iran war cloud economic outlook TOKYO, Aug 17 Reuters Japan39;s economy slowed in the second quarter and missed market forecasts on softer household and business spending, highlighting the fragile nature of its recovery as the Middle East war clouds the outlook. However, longterm bond yields hit a threedecade high as investors brushed aside the soft reading as reflecting oneoff factors, and focused more on mounting inflationary risks that could prod the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates next month. Gross domestic product rose 1.1 in annualised terms, government data showed on Monday, missing a median market estimate of 2.0 in a Reuters poll and below a revised 1.9 expansion in the previous quarter. While the data revealed some temporary soft patches in demand, analysts say robust underlying momentum and persistent price pressures are likely to keep the case for imminent interest rate hikes intact. Today39;s GDP data was a bit weak but the economy is likely to continue recovering moderately, said Naoki Hattori, chief Japan economist at Mizuho Research Institute. Given risks of underlying inflation overshooting its target, the BOJ is likely to proceed with a rate hike next month. Sources have told Reuters... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/japan-q2-growth-misses-forecasts-on-weak-spending-1786973151.html Mon, 17 Aug 2026 01:10:12 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-july-output-slows-retail-sales-miss-forecasts-1786953038.html BEIJING, Aug 17 Reuters China39;s industrial output growth slowed while retail sales grew less than expected in July, highlighting strains on the economy from weak domestic demand, extreme weather disruptions and the waning effect of state policies aimed at boosting consumption. The downbeat readings followed secondquarter growth that cooled to a threeandahalfyear low, reinforcing concerns that the economy is still struggling for momentum heading into the second half of the year. Industrial output in July rose 4.5 from a year earlier, slowing from 5.3 growth in June, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday. It missed expectations for a 4.8 rise in a Reuters poll of 26 analysts. Factory output was likely hampered by unusually active extreme weather last month, with three typhoons making landfall and millions of people relocated across China39;s eastern and southern manufacturing hubs. Retail sales grew 0.6, slowing from a 1 rise in June despite summer holiday tourism spending. Analysts had forecast 1.5 growth. Policymakers have been relying partly on tradein subsidies to support purchases of autos, home appliances and other durable goods. But analysts at Citi noted that the pace of subsidy distribution had weakened again in July, with daily average sales dropping to 6.3 billion yuan 934.8 million from 9 billion yuan in June. Auto sales declined for a 10th straight month in July, albeit at a slower pace, contrasting with strong external... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-july-output-slows-retail-sales-miss-forecasts-1786953038.html Mon, 17 Aug 2026 10:30:31 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/big-investors-hunt-next-ai-winners-as-capex-angst-fades-1787002257.html Neoclouds benefit from capacity shortages and pricing power Hyperscalers attract interest as investors take longer view Reuters analysis predicts increased cash flow for hyperscalers MILAN, Aug 17 Reuters The rally in AIlinked stocks that marked the latest earnings season has shifted the focus of the AI investment story from whether Big Tech39;s spending spree will pay off to the kind of companies that will deliver returns over the longer term, investors say. Results Microsoft and Amazon reassured markets that demand remains robust for the infrastructure that underpins artificial intelligence. Cloud growth is accelerating, and capacity constraints persist. The question for some of the world39;s biggest asset managers is which companies can sustain profit growth once those constraints ease. Many retain significant positions in semiconductor stocks even after a sector rout in July when doubts set in over whether AI spending was worth it and the challenge of rising Chinese competition. At the same time, they are adding exposure to the hyperscalers, or the biggest cloud service providers whose scale allows them to rapidly expand AI infrastructure to meet customer demands. The hyperscalers are being recognised in this moment as companies that are likely to be very large beneficiaries of this AI paradigm shift, said Brian Barbetta, cohead of the technology platform at Wellington Management, which manages about 1.3 trillion in assets. They remain core holdings in our... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/big-investors-hunt-next-ai-winners-as-capex-angst-fades-1787002257.html Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:30:41 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/tanker-attacks-slow-hormuz-shipping-data-shows-1786960107.html SINGAPORE, Aug 17 Reuters Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed over the weekend, data showed on Monday, following attacks on tankers, while U.S.Iran talks to resolve the Middle East conflict stalled. Five commodity vessels transited the strait on Saturday, with none registered for Sunday, shiptracking data from Kpler showed, versus 31 in the prior weekend. Ships entering the strait on Saturday included an empty Very Large Crude Carrier with its Automatic Identification System switched off and an Indianflagged Very Large Gas Carrier that used the Iranian route, Kpler data showed. A small tanker laden with Iranian fuel oil exited, it showed. Shipping appeared to grind to a near standstill after the United Arab Emirates said three vessels operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company were attacked in transit last week. The United States said it could maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely. Some ships may pass through undetected with transponders off, but the figures are far from the more than 130 ships a day that traversed the Strait of Hormuz before the war launched by the U.S. and Israel on Iran in February. Washington must meet Iran39;s conditions regarding the strait in order for shipping to resume, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in an interview with local media on Saturday. The waterway handled a fifth of the world39;s shipments of crude oil and liquefied natural gas before the war. At the Bab elMandeb strait, where Yemeni Houthis declared... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/tanker-attacks-slow-hormuz-shipping-data-shows-1786960107.html Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:40:32 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/german-companies-cut-us-investment-to-3-year-low-data-show-1786957882.html Firsthalf direct investments plunge nearly twothirds, IW says Firsthalf 2026 investment level lowest since 2023, IW says Trump administration has imposed tariffs on trading partners BERLIN, Aug 16 Reuters German companies slashed investments in the United States to a threeyear low in the first half of 2026, as Trump administration policies fed uncertainty between the transatlantic trading partners. Firsthalf direct investments plunged by nearly twothirds yearonyear to 4.3 billion 5 billion, the lowest level since 2023, according to calculations by the German Economic Institute, or IW, seen by Reuters. Compared with the same period in 2024, that represents a drop of nearly 80, said the report, which is based on data from Germany39;s central bank. This continues the downward trend that has been evident since the start of Donald Trump39;s second term in January 2025, IW researcher Samina Sultan told Reuters. Since returning to office, Trump has threatened most of the United States39; international trading partners with import tariffs in an attempt to secure concessions favourable to Washington. In a bid to avoid heavy duties on its exports to the U.S., for example, the European Union agreed a deal last year that included a 600 billion investment pledge. In the five years before the COVID19 pandemic, firsthalf investments by German companies in the U.S. averaged 15.8 billion, the data showed, almost four times the 2026 level. That said, the 2020 to 2023 period... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/german-companies-cut-us-investment-to-3-year-low-data-show-1786957882.html Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:30:25 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-business-inventories-unchanged-in-june-1786742168.html WASHINGTON, Aug 14 Reuters U.S. business inventories were unchanged in June as an increase in stocks at wholesalers was offset by a decline at retailers, reflecting strong domestic demand in the second quarter. The flat reading in inventories followed a 0.4 rise in May, the Commerce Department39;s Census Bureau said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast inventories, a key component of gross domestic product and one of the most volatile, edging up 0.1 in June. Inventories increased 3.0 yearonyear in June. Business inventories have been drawn down for five straight quarters amid robust domestic demand, a mix of consumer spending and business investment tied to artificial intelligence. They subtracted from gross domestic product growth in the second quarter. The economy grew at a 1.5 annualized rate last quarter, though domestic demand increased at its fastest pace in more than three years. Retail inventories fell 0.2 in June instead of being unchanged as estimated in an advance report last month. They surged 0.8 in May. Motor vehicle inventories rose 0.4 as previously reported. They increased 0.9 in May. Retail inventories excluding autos, which go into the calculation of GDP, dropped 0.4 instead of falling 0.2 as estimated last month. They gained 0.7 in May. Wholesale inventories rose 0.2 in June while stocks at manufacturers edged up 0.1. Business sales fell 1.1 in June after dropping 2.1 in the prior month. At June39;s sales pace, it would take... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-business-inventories-unchanged-in-june-1786742168.html Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:50:00 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-consumer-sentiment-deteriorates-in-august-1786742053.html WASHINGTON, Aug 14 Reuters U.S. consumer sentiment slumped in early August amid worries about the rising cost of living because of the conflict in the Middle East, a survey showed on Friday. The University of Michigan39;s Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 51.0 this month from 55.2 in July, ending two straight months of improvement. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would be at 54.5. The decline in sentiment occurred across the political spectrum, with an especially big monthtomonth drop among Republicans. Sentiment among Republicans is now 19 below readings just prior to the Iran conflict and the lowest since the 2024 election, said Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers. Although the earlymonth weakening in sentiment was pervasive across various demographic groups, notably large reductions were seen among older consumers, lowerincome consumers, and those without a college degree. The survey39;s measure of consumer expectations for inflation over the next year increased to 4.3 from 4.2 in July. Consumers39; expectations for inflation over the next five years were unchanged at 3.3. Reporting by Lucia Mutikani and Paul Simao Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-consumer-sentiment-deteriorates-in-august-1786742053.html Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:30:40 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/chinese-auto-sales-boom-globally-slow-down-at-home-1786697649.html China39;s domestic car sales shrink by size of Japan39;s market in first half Strong Chinese export gains add to the strain on Japanese, European automakers China and Japan vie for global auto market share, especially in EVs BEIJING, Aug 14 Reuters China39;s car industry is on a tear overseas, storming markets from Europe to Southeast Asia and heaping pressure on longestablished automakers like Toyota Motor and Volkswagen. But it is a different story at home, where car sales have been in steady decline since late last year, as weak consumer demand and years of intense price competition have left the world39;s biggest auto market glutted with excess capacity. While major Chinese car companies like BYD, Geely and Chery have long aspired to become global heavyweights, the industry39;s rapid expansion is now driven as much by economic necessity as by ambition, analysts and industry insiders say. Faced with lacklustre domestic demand, China39;s automakers have an increasingly powerful incentive to accelerate a push overseas that was already well under way. That will only add to the squeeze on European and Japanese rivals already struggling to compete with China39;s technologically advanced, lowcost electric vehicles. Chinese automakers have excess manufacturing capacity, highly competitive supply chains, increasingly sophisticated products and a strong economic incentive to find growth outside China, said Bill Russo, CEO of Shanghaibased advisory firm Automobility.... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/chinese-auto-sales-boom-globally-slow-down-at-home-1786697649.html Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:10:00 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ai-driven-bond-yield-surge-threatens-markets-and-growth-1786704472.html Real bond yields shoot higher on AI and government spending Resilient economies and rate hike bets also drive move But realyield rise raises risks for stocks and growth LONDON, Aug 14 Reuters Market gauges of inflationadjusted borrowing costs have shot to their highest in more than a decade across major economies as AI companies and governments ramp up bond sales, raising risks for stock markets and the world economy. Real yields are the returns that a bond investor demands above inflation and are an important indicator of true borrowing costs for governments and companies. They are typically determined by expectations about growth, interest rates and the supply and demand of money. U.S. 30year real yields , as measured by inflationlinked bonds, are near 18year highs at around 3, while British and German 10year real yields are trading at around their highest in more than a decade , . Investors and analysts say a surge in borrowing by AI hyperscalers, at a time when governments are still spending heavily, has been a leading factor pushing up yields, as buyers demand higher returns to keep purchasing the flood of bonds hitting markets. With inflation expectations broadly steady despite the Iran conflict, the rise in real yields has pushed up nominal yields around the world in recent months. The U.S. on Thursday paid the highest borrowing cost on a 30year bond at auction since 2001, at 5.22 . BOND FLOOD The likes of Alphabet, Amazon and Meta have issued almost 220... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ai-driven-bond-yield-surge-threatens-markets-and-growth-1786704472.html Fri, 14 Aug 2026 10:30:17 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boj-eyes-september-rate-hike-faster-tightening-sources-say-1786696866.html BOJ set to raise rates as soon as September, sources say BOJ may accelerate pace of rate hikes thereafter, sources say Weak yen, AI demand adding to BOJ worries over inflation BOJ sees rising inflation expectations, producer prices as key Markets price in early rate hike, lifts 5year yield to record TOKYO, Aug 14 Reuters The Bank of Japan is set to raise interest rates as soon as September and is considering hiking more aggressively thereafter from the current pace of roughly twice a year, said three sources familiar with its thinking. Such a move would reflect the BOJ39;s growing alarm over price pressures from the Middle East conflict, strong global AI demand and the yen39;s downtrend, which has persisted despite last month39;s rare JapanU.S. joint intervention. An early rate hike has come into sight, one of the sources said, signalling a strong chance the BOJ will raise rates at its next policy meeting on September 17 and 18. The BOJ could also accelerate the pace of rate increases, the source said, a view echoed by another source. The twoyear Japanese government bond JGB yield , which is most sensitive to the BOJ39;s policy outlook, rebounded after Reuters initially reported the central bank39;s deliberations, while the fiveyear yield rose to a record high. Since exiting a massive, decadelong stimulus in 2024, the BOJ has raised interest rates at a pace of roughly twice a year including in June, when it took rates to a 31year high of 1. While the BOJ... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boj-eyes-september-rate-hike-faster-tightening-sources-say-1786696866.html Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:50:15 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/russia-s-share-of-india-oil-imports-hits-record-in-july-1786695208.html NEW DELHI, Aug 14 Reuters Indian dependence on Russia39;s crude surged to a record in July, with shipments from the country making up 50.83 of imports by the thirdbiggest oil buyer and consumer, or 2.47 million barrels per day, data from trade sources showed. India39;s July imports of Russian oil were up 62.4 from a year earlier, but down 4.8 from June39;s record figure of 2.6 million bpd, the data showed. In January, Indian refiners began cutting Russian oil imports to avoid higher U.S. tariffs as New Delhi negotiates a trade deal with Washington. However, disruptions to Middle East supply triggered by the Iran war compelled Indian refiners to keep buying Russian barrels. But India39;s Russian crude buying faces uncertainty after legislation passed by the U.S. Senate this month to impose tariffs of 100 on buyers of Russian oil, stepping up economic pressure on Moscow over its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The House of Representatives has yet to approve the measure. Russia39;s share of India39;s crude imports hit a record 43.25 in the first four months of the financial year that began in April, averaging more than 2 million bpd, up from a share of about 37 a year earlier, the data showed. The shift came largely at the expense of Middle Eastern suppliers, whose share of India39;s crude imports fell to about 30 in the period from April to July, versus 43 a year earlier. The share of Latin American oil rose from 3.5 to 12.7, mainly due to higher imports from Brazil and... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/russia-s-share-of-india-oil-imports-hits-record-in-july-1786695208.html Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:30:10 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-producer-prices-unchanged-in-july-further-dimming-rate-hike-odds-1786703848.html Weekly jobless claims increase 9,000 to 209,000 Continuing claims decline 22,000 to 1.777 million Producer Price Index unchanged in July; rises 4.7 yearonyear WASHINGTON, Reuters U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July as goods prices fell and the cost of services increased marginally, bolstering financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates unchanged next month. The report from the Labor Department on Thursday followed news on Wednesday of mild consumer inflation last month. The data led most economists to also expect moderate readings in the Personal Consumption Expenditures price indexes in July. The U.S. central bank tracks the PCE inflation measures for its 2 target. Financial markets had been pricing in a rate hike, but the odds have diminished considerably following last week39;s employment report showing unexpected job losses in July. The Federal Open Market Committee will get August CPI and employment reports before the September meeting. It39;s now looking far less likely that the FOMC will feel the need to hike as soon as September, said Stephen Brown, chief North America economist at Capital Economics. The flat reading in the Producer Price Index for final demand last month followed a revised 0.1 drop in June, the Labor Department39;s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI rebounding 0.2 following a previously reported 0.3 decline in June. In the 12 months through... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-producer-prices-unchanged-in-july-further-dimming-rate-hike-odds-1786703848.html Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:40:40 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/argentina-monthly-inflation-rises-in-july-to-2-1-1786696160.html BUENOS AIRES, Reuters Argentina39;s monthly inflation rate was 2.1 in July, slightly above the level recorded in June, while the 12month figure also slightly sped up, data from national statistics agency INDEC showed on Thursday. July39;s inflation rate was up from 1.9 registered in June and was slightly higher than analyst expectations of 2. In the 12 months through July prices rose 33.8, climbing from the previous month39;s rate of 33.5. Recreation and culture saw the largest price increases, driven by more expensive holiday packages during Argentina39;s winter holidays, followed by restaurants and hotels. Clothing and footwear prices fell slightly. On Tuesday, a Reuters poll on July inflation data showed analysts considered that disinflation remains gradual in the South American nation. Argentina39;s central bank projects inflation to end the year at 29.8, with the economy growing 2.7. Reporting by Hernan Nessi and Kylie Madry; Writing by Fabiola Arámburo Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/argentina-monthly-inflation-rises-in-july-to-2-1-1786696160.html Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:30:13 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-producer-prices-unchanged-in-july-labor-market-stable-1786642019.html Weekly jobless claims increase 9,000 to 209,000 Continuing claims decline 22,000 to 1.777 million Producer Price Index unchanged in July; rises 4.7 yearonyear WASHINGTON, Aug 13 Reuters U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July as goods prices fell and the cost of services increased marginally, bolstering financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates unchanged next month. The report from the Labor Department on Thursday followed news on Wednesday of mild consumer inflation last month. The data led economists to also expect moderate readings in the Personal Consumption Expenditures price indexes in July. The U.S. central bank tracks the PCE inflation measures for its 2 target. Financial markets had been pricing in a rate hike, but the odds have diminished considerably following last week39;s employment report showing unexpected job losses in July. The absence of spillovers from higher energy prices into services prices, together with a fragile labor market, should ensure that the Fed keeps policy unchanged for the remainder of the year, said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. The flat reading in the Producer Price Index for final demand last month followed a revised 0.1 drop in June, the Labor Department39;s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI rebounding 0.2 following a previously reported 0.3 decline in June. In the 12 months through July, the PPI... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-producer-prices-unchanged-in-july-labor-market-stable-1786642019.html Thu, 13 Aug 2026 06:30:19 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ai-boom-is-starting-to-show-in-uk-economy-s-performance-1786651898.html MANCHESTER, England, Aug 13 Reuters Britain39;s economy is showing the clearest signs yet that it is benefitting from the global artificial intelligence boom, with data on Thursday showing rapid growth in related industries and a surge in computer hardware investment. While the Office for National Statistics said Britain39;s economy grew by 0.4 in the second quarter, the information and communications sector contributed almost half of that expansion more than any other industry. Within the sector, the ONS said the output of computer programming, consultancy and related activities which would include AI companies surged by 3.7 on the quarter, on top of a 3.8 rise in the previous quarter. Since becoming prime minister in July, Andy Burnham has made AI a Cabinetlevel priority. His team has signalled a shift away from the previous government39;s U.S.centric approach towards greater emphasis on British ownership, tech sovereignty and protecting workers from disruption. U.S. data has also pointed to AI39;s growing impact on the world39;s largest economy. ONS investment data on Thursday offered more evidence of an AI impact. Spending on plant and machinery across the economy has grown strongly this year, rising to 22.1 billion 29.8 billion in the second quarter within a whisker of a oneoff record high hit in early 2022 caused by the timing of tax breaks. An ONS spokesperson said the most recent strong reading reflected ICT equipment, particularly computer hardware as... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ai-boom-is-starting-to-show-in-uk-economy-s-performance-1786651898.html Thu, 13 Aug 2026 03:50:16 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-s-goods-trade-deficit-hits-6-month-high-on-import-rise-1786630253.html July goods deficit widens to 31.98 bln from 30.43 bln in June July goods exports rise to 44.24 bln from June39;s 40.41 billion Imports rise to 76.22 billion from 70.84 billion in June Shipping disruptions, high freight rates hit exporters39; margins NEW DELHI, Aug 13 Reuters India39;s merchandise trade deficit widened more than expected to a sixmonth high of 31.98 billion in July, as the Middle East war drove up the country39;s oil import bill and global freight rates. The data underscores the growing pressure on India39;s external balance, as a wider trade gap weighs on the rupee and capital inflows. A Reuters poll of economists expected the merchandise trade deficit in July at 30.20 billion. It stood at 30.43 billion in June. Imports rose to 76.22 billion against 70.84 billion in June, driven by a rise in crude oil prices and surging imports of electronics goods and gold, data released by the trade ministry showed. Imports of electronics goods, including chips, rose more than 44 yearonyear in July to 14.37 billion, and gold imports climbed nearly 5 to 4.16 billion. Oil imports stood at 18.31 billion in July against 19.33 billion in June, reflecting higher global crude prices, data showed. Goods exports hit a record high of 44.24 billion for July, surpassing the previous July peak of 38.34 billion in 2022, while they were 40.41 billion in June. Exports of petroleum products, electronics and engineering goods have grown strongly so far this fiscal year, while... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-s-goods-trade-deficit-hits-6-month-high-on-import-rise-1786630253.html Thu, 13 Aug 2026 03:10:18 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-economy-gains-from-gulf-ceasefire-world-cup-and-sunshine-1786610293.html   GDP rises by 0.3 in June from May Reuters poll had pointed to zero growth GDP in second quarter in line with forecasts at 0.4 Economy expected to slow in coming months PM Burnham has pledged help for businesses and households LONDON, Aug 13 Reuters Britain39;s economy unexpectedly grew in June as companies enjoyed a respite from the energy price surge caused by the Iran war, the start of the men39;s soccer World Cup and hot weather, official data showed on Thursday. Gross domestic product rose by 0.3 during the month, putting Britain on course for the strongest growth among the Group of Seven rich economies in the first half of 2026, after being flat in May. Overall, the economy seems to have weathered the Iran war extremely well, with little sign of consumers or businesses curtailing activity in response to higher oil prices, Thomas Pugh, chief economist at accountancy firm RSM UK, said. Looking ahead, though, growth is likely to slow. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast zero growth in monthonmonth terms in June. IRAN WAR RESPITE The Office for National Statistics said fewer firms mentioned the Iran war than in previous months, coinciding with a period of ceasefire which has since lapsed. It also said some alcoholic drinks producers, firms in the food sector, television production and advertising reported a boost from the World Cup, while retailers and some manufacturers mentioned the hot weather as a help. The overall economic growth in June... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-economy-gains-from-gulf-ceasefire-world-cup-and-sunshine-1786610293.html Thu, 13 Aug 2026 11:30:59 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korea-unveils-housing-supply-and-young-buyer-support-plan-1786653680.html Construction project financing support to rise to at least 33.7 billion FSC unveils new policy loans for young people and newlyweds buying homes to live in President Lee warns real estate 39;a ticking time bomb that threatens people39;s lives and the country39;s future39; Measures accompany earlier proposals to raise taxes on wealthy homeowners SEOUL, Aug 13 Reuters South Korea said on Thursday it would raise financial support for construction projects and ease regulations for young homebuyers as part of efforts to stabilise a redhot housing market. Earlier this month, the government of President Lee Jae Myung proposed higher taxes on wealthy homeowners. Lee39;s approval ratings have been falling on rising house prices and stock market volatility. The real estate bubble has reached a level that can no longer be left unchecked, Lee said during a meeting with his top aides on Thursday. If this situation continues, we could face what happened in a certain country the socalled 39;lost decades39;. We must concentrate all available means and capabilities on solving the real estate problem a ticking time bomb that threatens people39;s lives and the country39;s future. Thursday39;s measures are aimed at stabilising the property market by stimulating housing supply and through a comprehensive financial package for young people and those with actual demand, the Financial Services Commission said in a statement. The FSC said it would raise policy support for financing... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korea-unveils-housing-supply-and-young-buyer-support-plan-1786653680.html Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:30:56 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/thailand-q2-growth-seen-slowing-on-weak-consumption-1786639986.html Thai Q2 GDP expected to grow 1.7 yy vs 2.8 in Q1 2026 Quarterly GDP growth forecast at 0.6 qq sa vs 0.7 in Q1 2026 Q2 GDP data due on Monday, August 17 BENGALURU, Aug 13 Reuters Thailand39;s economic growth likely slowed sharply in the second quarter, while the economy contracted on a quarterly basis, a Reuters poll of economists showed, as subdued household consumption offset support from exports and private investment. Southeast Asia39;s secondlargest economy likely expanded 1.7 in the AprilJune quarter from a year earlier, slowing from 2.8 growth in the previous quarter, according to the median estimate in an August 712 poll of 15 economists. Forecasts for data, due on August 17, ranged from 0.9 to 2.2. On a seasonally adjusted quarteronquarter basis, gross domestic product GDP was expected to contract 0.6, according to the median estimate of a smaller sample of economists. Private consumption was likely to be the main drag. The oil shock rippled through costs across a wide range of goods and services, especially transportation. As a result, households have likely grown more cautious about spending, said Eugene Tan, associate economist at Moody39;s Analytics. High household debt and an ageing population were also expected to constrain consumer spending despite government fiscal measures aimed at supporting demand, economists said. Tourism, a vital pillar of Thailand39;s economy, was also unlikely to provide much relief. Foreign arrivals were down 3.2... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/thailand-q2-growth-seen-slowing-on-weak-consumption-1786639986.html Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:10:20 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/japan-wholesale-inflation-stays-hot-boj-sep-hike-odds-up-1786614143.html July producer price index up 7.2 yryr vs forecast 7.4 Oil fall offset by rising metal prices, global AI demand Mounting price pressure to heighten BOJ Sept ratehike chance TOKYO, Aug 13 Reuters Japan39;s annual wholesale inflation remained elevated in July, data showed on Thursday, highlighting broadening price pressures and reinforcing market expectations of an interest rate hike in September. The data came in the wake of growing hawkish communication from the Bank of Japan including a summary of opinions at its July meeting that showed some policymakers arguing for a faster pace of rate hikes to counter inflation risks. The producer price index rose 7.2 in July, slower than market forecasts for a 7.4 increase but staying near a 7.3 spike marked in June, BOJ data showed. On a monthonmonth basis, the index edged up 0.1 in July, after a revised 0.5 increase in June, the data showed. Wholesale inflation is expected to reaccelerate as renewed tension in the Middle East is pushing up crude oil prices, which will push up the cost of energy and other goods, said Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus. He said that further yen falls could also lift import prices, predicting the BOJ would raise interest rates in September. Thursday39;s data showed that, despite a decline in oilrelated costs in June, strong demand tied to the AI boom, elevated global metal prices and higher rawmaterial costs stemming from the Middle East conflict continued to drive... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/japan-wholesale-inflation-stays-hot-boj-sep-hike-odds-up-1786614143.html Thu, 13 Aug 2026 08:30:43 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-s-central-bank-pledges-timely-new-policy-rollout-1786612534.html BEIJING, Reuters China39;s central bank said on Wednesday it would maintain an appropriately loose monetary stance and roll out practical, effective measures as needed, but stopped short of signaling explicit cuts to policy rates or banks39; reserverequirement ratio. The People39;s Bank of China will make full use of existing policies, promptly plan and roll out additional measures, step up countercyclical adjustment, and intensify efforts to expand domestic demand, the central bank said in its quarterly monetary policy implementation report. The central bank will strengthen monetary policy39;s coordination with fiscal policy to support economic growth and the stable operations of the financial market, it said. The foundation for the economy39;s steady, positive momentum still needs to be consolidated, the central bank said. The global environment remains complex and volatile, with weak global growth, slowing trade, and imported inflation pressures pushing up prices in many countries. At home, China still faces an imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, as new challenges compound longstanding problems, it said. China39;s leaders pledged at a July meeting to support the slowing economy by accelerating fiscal spending on alreadybudgeted infrastructure projects in the second half, rather than rolling out major new stimulus measures. Secondquarter growth slowed to 4.3, the weakest pace in more than three years and below the bottom end of the government39;s... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-s-central-bank-pledges-timely-new-policy-rollout-1786612534.html Thu, 13 Aug 2026 08:00:38 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/australia-central-banker-says-rate-risks-are-skewed-higher-1786609090.html RBA39;s Kent says a lot of things have to go right for rates to be on hold Kent singles out Strait of Hormuz, productivity issues among others Says three rate hikes working as intended, policy somewhat restrictive SYDNEY, Aug 13 Reuters A senior Australian central banker on Thursday warned of the risk of further policy tightening, saying inflation threats remain on the upside and a lot of things would need to go right to avert another rate increase. Speaking at a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker event in Sydney, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said the current cash rate of 4.35 is judged to be somewhat restrictive, but uncertainties remain. Our sense is that the various risks that we have called out, we think they39;re leaning very much to the upside when it comes to inflation, said Kent, adding that a lot of things will have to go right for rates to be on hold. One of the things that has to go right is the Strait of Hormuz has to open up in reasonable time. Another one that has to go right... is productivity growth picking up, Kent said, adding that interest rates may need to rise further if those conditions fail to materialise. The RBA on Tuesday left interest rates steady at 4.35 for a second meeting, having already hiked by 75 basis points since February in an effort to restrain stubborn inflationary pressures. Governor Michele Bullock warned she personally thought interest rates might have to go up again, even though the bank39;s latest... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/australia-central-banker-says-rate-risks-are-skewed-higher-1786609090.html Thu, 13 Aug 2026 07:50:10 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-housing-market-remains-subdued-landlords-cut-back-rics-1786608451.html LONDON, Aug 13 Reuters Britain39;s housing market remained sluggish last month but there was a recovery in confidence about the sales outlook, a survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors RICS showed on Thursday. RICS Chief Economist Simon Rubinsohn said the currently subdued market was unlikely to spur housebuilders to speed up construction a priority for new Prime Minister Andy Burnham while new regulation for landlords was weighing on rentals. The survey39;s headline house price balance improved to 30 from 32 in June The fall in prices was strongest in London and southeast and southwest England Prices were seen rising over the next 12 months A gauge of new buyer enquiries held at 28 while properties coming on the market fell less sharply than in June Agreed sales were unchanged at 30 Nearterm sales expectations improved for a fourth month in a row to 14 while expected sales over 12 months edged up to 3, the highest since the start of the Iran war In rentals, tenant demand weakened in the three months to July and landlords reduced properties put on the market. Reporting by William Schomberg; editing by Suban Abdulla Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-housing-market-remains-subdued-landlords-cut-back-rics-1786608451.html Thu, 13 Aug 2026 07:40:23 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/2026-oil-shortfall-to-deepen-on-hormuz-delays-iea-says-1786607554.html IEA sees 1.8 million bpd oil market deficit in Q3 Sees 2026 global oil demand contracting by 1.6 million bpd Middle East output 8.3 million bpd below prewar levels in July OPEC also lowers 2026 oil demand view, but still sees oil use rising LONDON, Aug 12 Reuters Global oil supply will fall by 4.3 million barrels per day, or around 4, this year, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, as renewed hostilities in the Middle East disrupt supplies and plunge the world deeper into an oilmarket deficit. The U.S.Iran ceasefire broke down last month around a month after the parties signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war. Since then, tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have resumed and the conflict spread as Yemen39;s Iranaligned Houthi rebels launched attacks in the Red Sea. Global oil supply has fallen well below demand due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, the U.S. blockade of Iranian exports, attacks within the Bab elMandeb Strait and reduced Kazakh CPC Blend exports, the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, said in a monthly report, referring also to drone attacks in the Black Sea affecting exports. This year39;s expected supply drop compares with the 3.7 million bpd forecast in the IEA39;s July report, and will take total supply to the Parisbased agency39;s lowest forecast yet for this year at 102.02 million bpd. That would put global supply around 1.27 million bpd below demand this year, widening from an 860,000 bpd deficit... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/2026-oil-shortfall-to-deepen-on-hormuz-delays-iea-says-1786607554.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 05:30:33 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-s-inflation-hits-4-45-rbi-rate-outlook-unchanged-1786551868.html July retail inflation stays within RBI39;s 26 band July food inflation at 5.52 vs 5.32 in June Economists expect no rate change in Oct, potential hike in Dec NEW DELHI, Aug 12 Reuters India39;s retail inflation accelerated in July, led by higher food prices, to a pace that is still unlikely to push the central bank to hike interest rates over the next few months. The consumer price index rose 4.45 from a year earlier in July, marking a second consecutive month above the Reserve Bank of India39;s 4 mediumterm target and nearly in line with a Reuters poll that had estimated inflation at 4.5. The July print is however well within the RBI39;s 2 to 6 tolerance band. The central bank left its benchmark policy rate unchanged last week, awaiting clearer evidence on whether inflationary pressures had become broadbased in Asia39;s thirdlargest economy, making India an outlier among regional peers such as Indonesia and the Philippines that have raised rates in response to higher energy prices and currency volatility. The RBI can afford to be patient for now, but not forever, said Alexandra Hermann Prasad, lead economist at Oxford Economics. Mounting evidence of secondround effects and rising mediumterm inflation expectations will make the supply shock increasingly difficult to look through. We expect policymakers to hold fire in October, but to deliver a 25 basis point rate hike in December. India39;s food inflation climbed to 5.52 in July from 5.32 in June, on the back... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-s-inflation-hits-4-45-rbi-rate-outlook-unchanged-1786551868.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 04:30:53 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/hong-kong-tax-cut-reform-excludes-prop-traders-1786552592.html HONG KONG, Aug 12 Reuters The Hong Kong government said on Wednesday that tax benefits for fund managers and family offices proposed in a bill being considered by the legislative council of the Asian financial hub will exclude proprietary trading businesses. The clarification means that proprietary trading giants such as Jane Street, Citadel Securities and Jump Trading could be shut out from the potentially lucrative tax benefits. Hong Kong, aiming to strengthen competitiveness as a global asset management hub, is in the process of passing a bill to widen a taxfree carried interest measure to broader types of fund houses and individual fund managers. Carried interest is essentially a performancelinked bonus tied to fund returns. But businesses that trade or hold assets with their own capital to generate returns for themselves, commonly known as proprietary trading businesses, do not meet the definition of a fund, the Financial Services and Treasury Bureau said. Consequently, remuneration distributed by such operations will not qualify for tax exemptions, it added in a statement. The proposed tax reform is seen as a key lever for Hong Kong to attract top investment talent amid intense talent competition with Singapore and Dubai. Market gains last year saw a number of Asian fund managers pocket more than 1 million in performancelinked bonuses, industry sources said, with top performers earning sums upwards of 50 million, which would make a tax break highly... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/hong-kong-tax-cut-reform-excludes-prop-traders-1786552592.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 02:30:40 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/rbi-likely-intervenes-to-support-rupee-traders-say-1786611843.html MUMBAI, Aug 12 Reuters The Reserve Bank of India likely intervened in the foreign exchange market on Wednesday, six traders told Reuters, as lingering anxiety over the Iran war kept oil prices elevated and pressured the South Asian currency. The rupee managed to hold its ground on the back of the intervention and was last at 95.41 per dollar, little changed from its close at 95.4350 in the previous session. The currency has hovered in a 95.4095.4325 range through the session so far. Brent crude oil futures were last up 0.3 at 89.2 per barrel. Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra, Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/rbi-likely-intervenes-to-support-rupee-traders-say-1786611843.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 12:10:18 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/abn-amro-lifts-annual-outlook-on-higher-central-bank-rates-1786524057.html FY commercial NII target raised to 6.8 billion Quarterly profit jumps nearly 30, beating consensus Cost discipline continues Aug 12 Reuters ABN Amro lifted the guidance for its commercial net interest income after beating quarterly expectations on Wednesday, joining other major Benelux banks that have raised forecasts as higher central bank interest rates continue to support their profitability. The Dutch bank39;s shares touched an alltime high in early trading, rising around 5 on Euronext. ABN now expects a commercial NII of 6.8 billion 7.8 billion this year, up from the previous forecast of 6.4 billion and about 100 million above analyst consensus. The Dutch economy remained resilient, supported by healthy household spending and more positive consumer confidence ... with uncertainty remaining high and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock yet to play out, we expect another rate hike in September, CEO Marguerite Bérard said in a statement. Quarterly profit grew almost 30 to 780 million, exceeding market expectations by more than 100 million, as recently acquired businesses boosted revenue and the bank cracked down on costs. Sitting on a comfortable CET1 ratio of 15.9, a key measure of a bank39;s capital strength, ABN is for now focused on ensuring the success of its already made acquisitions, rather than hunting for new targets, Bérard said in a press call. NII, which accounted for around 70 of the bank39;s revenue, is largely dependent on... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/abn-amro-lifts-annual-outlook-on-higher-central-bank-rates-1786524057.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 10:50:21 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/nigeria-s-ev-ambitions-clash-with-weak-power-supply-1786524462.html Nigeria approves tax waivers for nearly 4,000 EVs in first half, government data shows Dealers, chargers and batteryswapping operators use diesel and petrol generators during outages Nigeria39;s grid supplies 4,000 megawatts for more than 200 million people LAGOS, Aug 12 Reuters Nigeria approved tax waivers for nearly 4,000 electric vehicles in the first half of this year, government data showed, as authorities push to accelerate nascent EV adoption despite chronic electricity shortages. The approvals reviewed by Reuters are the first under a new government programme aimed at promoting cleaner transport through tax incentives and local assembly programmes. Nigeria39;s government is aiming to significantly ramp up electric vehicle uptake, with its 2022 Energy Transition Plan projecting that EVs will make up 60 of its vehicle fleet by 2050. That would be a huge increase from current levels. While official data is not available, EVs now likely account for less than 1 of the total vehicle fleet in Africa39;s most populous country, dealers say, equivalent to only a few tens of thousands of vehicles on its roads. NIGERIA39;S POWER SECTOR STRUGGLES TO KEEP UP WITH DEMAND Nigeria exempted EVs from valueadded tax in 2024 and cut import duties to zero this year from 5. Higher fuel costs following the removal of a petrol subsidy in 2023 meanwhile have boosted interest in electric motorcycles, cars and buses. Yet the economics of operating EVs remain closely tied to... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/nigeria-s-ev-ambitions-clash-with-weak-power-supply-1786524462.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 09:50:26 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/japan-fund-managers-chase-retail-cash-as-jgb-yields-surge-1786537063.html More firms selling funds based on Japanese government bonds Yields on longterm JGBs now rival those of US Treasuries and German bunds Analysts expect the government to raise JGB issuance by 15 trillion yen this year TOKYO, Aug 12 Reuters After years of paying investors almost nothing, Japanese government bonds are suddenly worth owning again, and domestic asset managers are hurrying to give ordinary investors a way in. With yields on longterm JGBs now rivalling those of U.S. Treasuries and German bunds, Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management has joined Daiwa Asset Management and Amova Asset Management in selling investment trusts focused on the superlong bonds. Japan39;s 30year JGBs trade at a near 4 yield, higher than Germany39;s 30year bond yield of around 3.6, and close to the 5.2 of 30year U.S. Treasuries. While the size of each fund is relatively small at no more than 3 billion yen 18.84 million, their proliferation is a sign of reinvigoration of the debt market that had been dominated by the central bank for more than a decade. Until recently, you would lose money holding JGBs, said Takayuki Yagi, an executive officer at Mitsubishi UFJ. But now if you have both JGBs and stocks, you can get textbook diversification. The Mitsubishi UFJ Asset fund, due to launch in September, will focus on low coupon bonds with maturities of 20 years issued during the Bank of Japan39;s regime of ultraloose monetary policy. Prices for that tranche of JGBs have fallen sharply of... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/japan-fund-managers-chase-retail-cash-as-jgb-yields-surge-1786537063.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 09:10:44 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/australia-sets-minimum-pay-insurance-rules-for-gig-workers-1786525056.html SYDNEY, Aug 12 Reuters Australia39;s industrial umpire has approved new minimum standards requiring food and grocery delivery workers to be paid hourly rates above the national minimum wage and covered by injury insurance while on the job. Gig workers will be paid at least A31.30 22.11 an hour, above Australia39;s minimum wage of A26.44, while remaining responsible for maintaining thirdparty insurance for vehicles used for deliveries, the Fair Work Commission FWC said in an order issued late on Tuesday. Companies will be required to provide a reasonable minimum level of cover for personal accident insurance, although the order did not specify a minimum level of coverage. The order takes effect on August 17 and is expected to benefit about 250,000 workers. Under the order, workers will be paid a minimum hourly rate for engaged time, covering the period between accepting a job and completing the delivery. The order follows the International Labour Organization39;s decision in June to adopt the first binding employment standards for gig workers, potentially giving them rights around pay, safety and social benefits. Those standards still require ratification by governments. The Transport Workers Union TWU called FWC39;s order a landmark moment for the Australian gig economy. Gig workers in Australia were left outside of our workplace systems for far too long. From Monday, they will be entitled to an absolute worldleading set of standards that we will build on over... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/australia-sets-minimum-pay-insurance-rules-for-gig-workers-1786525056.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:50:27 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-treasury-yields-seen-lower-but-conviction-wavers-1786521997.html BENGALURU, Reuters U.S. Treasury yields will decline over the coming year, said bond strategists in a Reuters poll who clung to expectations that markets will abandon Federal Reserve rate hike bets. Still, most reckoned the 10year yield was more likely to come in above their forecast than below it in three months. Since the U.S.Iran war began in late February a sustained selloff in Treasuries has pushed the benchmark yield up nearly 80 basis points as higher oil prices amplify fears alreadyelevated inflation will stay well above the Fed39;s 2 target. Financial markets have priced out Fed rate cuts entirely and are betting on at least one hike this year. Several Fed policymakers have also echoed the need for higher interest rates. But fixed income strategists in the August 611 Reuters survey have still held on to their longstanding view Treasury yields will fall, suggesting those rate hike bets may soon be pared back. The tenyear yield currently close to an 18month high at nearly 4.73 was forecast to fall to 4.50 within three months, hold that level at endJanuary before drifting lower to 4.34 in a year, survey medians showed. Interest rate sensitive twoyear yields were expected to drop more sharply about 20 bps to 4.07 in three months, to 3.92 in six and 3.80 in a year. Our base case is for lower 10year yields. Economic data has been surprising to the downside and yields have yet to follow, said Alex Payne, senior portfolio manager and head of the Mortgages,... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-treasury-yields-seen-lower-but-conviction-wavers-1786521997.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:30:41 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-fuel-exports-to-cuba-spur-chaotic-black-market-1786514318.html US firms shipped 900,000 barrels of fuel to Cuban businesses from February to May Imported fuel costs are out of reach for many Cubans living on about 10 a month Cuban government has launched economic reforms to open up energy sector HAVANA, Aug 11 Reuters Gasoline at 38 a gallon sold from cramped apartments. Diesel hawked on Instagram by a celebrity model to a reggaeton soundtrack. Six decades after Fidel Castros revolution, all of a sudden, capitalist cracks are appearing in Cubas communist energy sector. Under Washingtons crippling oil embargo against Cuba, an exception that allows U.S. firms to export fuel to private Cuban businesses has kickstarted a chaotic black market and pried the lid off an energy sector tightly controlled by the state ever since Dwight Eisenhower was in the White House. Oil shipments from Cubas traditional suppliers Venezuela and Mexico ended abruptly after the U.S. ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January. U.S. Coast Guard cutters patrol the waters off Cuba, while sanctions and threats have dissuaded tankers from even setting sail. The embargo has hobbled essential staterun services like the healthcare system, public transport and schools. But under the Commerce Department exception, a trickle of gasoline and diesel is reaching private restaurants, retailers and taxis, the first significant landings of U.S. fuel on the Caribbean island since Castro nationalized refineries after the 1959 revolution. Reuters could not... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-fuel-exports-to-cuba-spur-chaotic-black-market-1786514318.html Tue, 11 Aug 2026 07:30:27 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-small-business-sentiment-hits-11-month-high-in-july-1786480234.html Hiring plans jump 9 points to 20, highest since October 2022 Share of owners with unfilled job openings rises 4 points to 36 Labor supply and quality top concerns for owners, NFIB says WASHINGTON, Aug 11 Reuters U.S. smallbusiness sentiment increased to an 11month high in July amid a surge in the share of owners reporting plans to boost hiring, suggesting that last month39;s slump in nonfarm payrolls was probably temporary. The National Federation of Independent Business said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.4 points to 99.8 last month, the highest level since August 2025 and surpassing its 52year average of 98.0. The survey39;s uncertainty index, however, increased 2 points to 91 amid a rise in owners saying they were not sure this was a good time to expand. Owners were also uncertain about capital expenditure plans. Uncertainty remains high, most likely due to the status of the war with Iran, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. A meaningful resolution will be a major plus for the economy and small business owners. The survey39;s employment index rebounded 1.9 points to 102.1 following four straight monthly declines. The share of owners planning to create new jobs over the next three months jumped 9.0 points to 20, the highest level since October 2022. Those plans could, however, run into worker shortages. The survey39;s uncertainty index, however, increased 2 points to 91 amid a rise in owners saying they were not sure this was a... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-small-business-sentiment-hits-11-month-high-in-july-1786480234.html Tue, 11 Aug 2026 01:10:59 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-s-jobs-market-shows-signs-of-stabilisation-rec-kpmg-say-1786394752.html LONDON, Aug 10 Reuters Britain39;s labour market showed tentative signs of stabilisation in July, when Andy Burnham became prime minister, as recruiters stopped shedding permanent staff, according to a survey on Monday that also showed a faster rise in starting salaries. The monthly gauge of permanent job placements from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation trade body and accountants KPMG increased to 50.0 from 49.1, ending a 45month downturn. With a new government in place, businesses will be looking for signs that the new policies can translate into greater confidence to invest and hire, said Callum Licence, head of advisory at KPMG UK and Switzerland. The survey39;s temporary staff placements gauge came in at 51.9 in July, down from 52.7 in June Availability of temporary staff increased by the smallest amount since May 2023 Temporary vacancies increased for first time in two years Wage growth in pay for people newly hired to permanent roles was its strongest in six months while those for temporary roles hit a 26month high Bank of England policymakers are closely watching pay pressures in the economy The survey was based on responses from a panel of around 400 recruitment agencies between July 9 and July 27 Reporting by Suban Abdulla; editing by David Milliken Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-s-jobs-market-shows-signs-of-stabilisation-rec-kpmg-say-1786394752.html Mon, 10 Aug 2026 05:50:04 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/german-trade-deficit-with-china-grows-as-eu-imports-shift-1786395297.html German exports to China fall to below 37 bln in January to June, GTAI data shows China is only Germany39;s ninthbiggest export market after ranking second as recently as 2021 German imports from China rise 8.9 to 91.8 bln in first half BERLIN, Aug 9 Reuters Germany39;s trade deficit with China widened in the first half of 2026, even as the Asian powerhouse remained its top trade partner, preliminary data from staterun agency Germany Trade Invest GTAI showed on Sunday. German exports to China fell over 12 yearonyear to just under 37 billion between January and June, the data showed, as Chinese firms cut reliance on European imports, making China only the ninthbiggest market for German goods. As recently as 2021, China was the secondbiggest export market. That year, Germany sold China merchandise worth 104 billion, despite the effects of the pandemic. Now, German manufacturing is struggling with both U.S. tariffs and Chinese competition, triggering major job cuts at bulwarks of industry such as carmaker Volkswagen. China, though, is selling more and more to Germany. In the first half of last year, Germany ran a trade deficit of 40 billion with China. That had swelled to some 55 billion during the same period this year. German imports from China rose 8.9 to 91.8 billion over the period. Total trade was over 128 billion, 3 billion more than with the United States. The reasons for declining exports to China are the weak domestic economy and increasing Chinese... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/german-trade-deficit-with-china-grows-as-eu-imports-shift-1786395297.html Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:50:35 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/german-commercial-property-prices-dip-after-fragile-recovery-1786354083.html FRANKFURT, Aug 10 Reuters Commercial real estate prices in Germany declined in the second quarter, the VDP banking association said on Monday, reversing a fragile recovery in recent quarters after a rise in inflation and interest rates. The setback follows five quarters of price gains that only partially made up for several years of steep drops in the wake of war in Ukraine, which set off Germany39;s worst property crisis in decades. Like the war in Ukraine in 2022, this year39;s conflict in Iran and the Middle East have sparked inflation fears and higher interest rates, negative factors for the financing of commercial property. Prices of offices and retail buildings fell 1 in the quarter from a year earlier, after a 0.5 annual gain in the first quarter, VDP39;s data showed. By contrast, residential property prices clocked another gain in the quarter, though the pace slowed. Home prices rose 1.9 from a year earlier, after a 2.3 gain the first quarter. The commercial real estate market is reacting more strongly than the residential real estate market to geopolitical developments, rising inflation expectations, and interest rate trends, said Jens Tolckmitt, CEO of VDP. The development mirrors a survey in July that showed that the mood among those financing commercial real estate in Germany plunged in the quarter. The future development of the commercial real estate markets depends, among other things, on whether and when the numerous geopolitical conflicts will be... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/german-commercial-property-prices-dip-after-fragile-recovery-1786354083.html Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:50:24 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/extreme-eu-heat-could-wipe-out-2026-growth-triodos-says-1786375340.html Aug 10 Reuters The extreme heat and drought affecting large parts of Europe this summer could erase much of the economic growth expected across the region, Dutch bank Triodos said in a report on Saturday. The bank, which specialises in financing environmentally and socially sustainable projects, estimates that heatrelated disruption could shave around 1 off the European Union39;s gross domestic product, equivalent to roughly 180 billion 208 billion in economic losses, driven primarily by weaker labour productivity. Labour productivity losses alone could cut EU GDP by around 0.6, while agricultural output is expected to fall by 3 to 7. Higher food prices, constrained power generation and higher electricity prices, and disruption to roads, rail and inland waterways add to the damage, Triodos said. France is expected to be the hardest hit, with recurring heatwaves reducing GDP by around 1.4 and potentially tipping it into an annual contraction of 0.6. Italy, Spain and Belgium also face substantial losses, while countries such as Poland, which experienced fewer exceptionally hot days, are expected to be less affected. The European Commission has forecast EU GDP growth of 1.1, while the IMF expects the euro area to grow by around 0.9. 1 0.8657 euros Reporting by Jakob Van Calster, editing by Milla NissiPrussak Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/extreme-eu-heat-could-wipe-out-2026-growth-triodos-says-1786375340.html Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:30:08 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-gold-reserves-see-biggest-jump-since-oct-2023-1786378197.html BEIJINGSHANGHAI, Aug 7 Reuters China39;s central bank stepped up its gold purchases for a fifth straight month in July, adding the most bullion to its reserves since October 2023, official data showed on Friday. The People39;s Bank of China extended its goldbuying run to a 21st consecutive month, with reserves rising to 76.08 million fine troy ounces at the end of July from 75.44 million a month earlier. The 640,000ounce increase, equivalent to nearly 20 metric tons, was the biggest monthly addition since October 2023, when holdings rose by 740,000 ounces. The PBOC added 480,000 ounces in June, which was the biggest monthly gain since October 2023 at the time. The pace of purchases has increased each month since March, when the central bank added 160,000 ounces. The value of China39;s gold reserves rose to 306.35 billion at the end of July from 303.72 billion a month earlier, the data showed. Gold prices rose 0.84 in July, snapping four consecutive months of declines and the biggest monthly increase since February. The gains were supported by softer U.S. inflation data and easing oil prices during the month, which prompted traders to scale back expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Spot gold was most recently traded above 4,310 per ounce. Reporting by Qiaoyi Li and Liz Lee in Beijing, Dylan Duan in Shanghai. Editing by David Goodman and Mark Potter Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-gold-reserves-see-biggest-jump-since-oct-2023-1786378197.html Fri, 07 Aug 2026 01:10:59 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/taiwan-july-exports-miss-forecasts-but-ai-demand-holds-1786131654.html TAIPEI, Aug 7 Reuters Taiwan39;s exports rose less than expected in July, continuing to ride the wave of AI demand while contending with the undercurrents of global inflation and the economic uncertainties of a prolonged war in the Middle East. Exports jumped 32.9 from a year earlier to 75.30 billion, the finance ministry said on Friday, falling below both the 40.7 gain forecast by analysts and the 40.3 rise in June. Here are a few details Artificial intelligence and highperformance computing businesses continue to grow, boosting supply chain shipments. The global economic growth outlook would be limited by uncertainties of geopolitical risks and U.S. trade policy, but Taiwanese exports will continue to grow in the second half of the year. For August, the ministry expects exports to rise 31 to 35 from a year earlier. In July, Taiwan39;s exports to the U.S. rose 25.2 from a year earlier to 23.34 billion, while exports to China gained 33.4. Exports of electronic components jumped 50.5 to 27.733 billion, while those of information products rose 29.5. Imports were up 37.4 to 58.13 billion, below economists39; forecasts for an increase of 51.8. Taiwanese companies like TSMC, the world39;s largest maker of advanced chips used to power AI applications, are major suppliers to Nvidia, Apple and other leading tech companies. Reporting by Faith Hung and Emily Chan; Editing by Toby Chopra and Mrigank Dhaniwala Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/taiwan-july-exports-miss-forecasts-but-ai-demand-holds-1786131654.html Fri, 07 Aug 2026 12:50:58 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ai-demand-keeps-china-s-export-engine-humming-risks-loom-1786347404.html Exports jump 23.9 yy in dollar terms, surpass forecasts Imports growth slowed to 27.5 yy from 36 the previous month Demand for hightech products remains driver for export growth BEIJING, Aug 7 Reuters China39;s exports beat expectations in July, remaining a key driver of economic growth as the global AI infrastructure boom fuelled demand for hightech goods and exporters rushed shipments ahead of higher U.S. tariffs. The manufacturing powerhouse has been relying on external demand to sustain growth and counter tepid domestic consumption and an investment downturn, but frictions in China39;s relations with trading partners may prompt further protectionism in an uncertain global environment due to war in the Middle East. China39;s exports expanded 23.9 yearonyear in U.S. dollar value terms in July, customs data showed on Friday, slowing from a 27 surge the previous month and compared with a 22.2 rise forecast in a Reuters poll. Imports were up 27.5 from July last year, slowing from the 36 jump in June and in line with an expected 27.9 gain. The United States last month banned imports of new humanoid and quadruped robots and connected power inverters from China, and on Thursday imposed price floors and a 15 tariff on products made from polysilicon, the raw material used in semiconductors and solar panels that is primarily produced by China. The latest U.S. measures will have limited overall impact on Chinese exports due to a more diversified structure to other... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ai-demand-keeps-china-s-export-engine-humming-risks-loom-1786347404.html Fri, 07 Aug 2026 08:30:29 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/philippine-economy-posts-slowest-growth-in-5-years-in-q2-1786346753.html Firsthalf growth rate at 2.6, below the government39;s 3.5 to 4.5 fullyear target Construction contracts 14.8 in second quarter, while investment shrinks 9.2 Household spending growth eases as inflation remains elevated MANILA, Aug 7 Reuters The Philippine economy grew at its weakest annual pace since 2021 in the second quarter due to a slump in construction and softer domestic demand, but the government said there were some signs that activity may improve in the second half of the year. Growth slowed to 2.3 in the June quarter, the statistics agency said, below the 2.8 median forecast in a Reuters poll and weaker than the previous quarter39;s 2.8 expansion. Growth in the first six months of the year was 2.6, well below the bottom of the government39;s 3.54.5 fullyear target. While the secondquarter result calls for decisive actions, recent indicators give us reason for cautious optimism that the economy may already be entering the early stages of recovery, Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan told a media briefing. The government is expecting infrastructure spending to pick up in the current quarter as work begins on recently approved projects, he said, adding that surveys point to improving business confidence and production conditions. Balisacan blamed the slowdown on a corruption scandal that broke last year involving floodcontrol projects, saying it had curtailed public spending and dented investor sentiment, particularly around infrastructure... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/philippine-economy-posts-slowest-growth-in-5-years-in-q2-1786346753.html Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:50:41 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/japan-june-spending-drops-on-weather-iran-tensions-1786344896.html TOKYO, Aug 7 Reuters Japanese household spending fell unexpectedly in June, government data showed on Friday, as weatherrelated factors weighed on outlays, while analysts expect private consumption to be subdued amid sentiment hit by the Middle East conflict. Consumer spending dropped 3.3 yearonyear, data from the internal affairs ministry showed, falling for a seventh straight month as it underperformed a median market forecast for a rise of 1. On a seasonally adjusted, monthonmonth basis, spending decreased 6.4 versus an estimated drop of 3.1. The indicator will be among factors considered by the Bank of Japan in deciding whether to raise interest rates as soon as September, though the data itself is unlikely to weigh heavily on the decision. A ministry official attributed the June slump in outlays to typhoons and increased rainfall, while stopping short of blaming it squarely on the rising cost of living. Still, the share of income allocated to consumption has been declining since late last year, the official added, a sign households may be putting more of their earnings into savings. Japan39;s real wages grew 1.6 in June from a year before, a sixth consecutive month of increases, labour ministry data showed this week. Looking ahead, it may be difficult to expect solid growth in overall private consumption as the Iran war pushes up costs for key items such as food and energy despite subsidies, said Sota Takano, senior economist at... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/japan-june-spending-drops-on-weather-iran-tensions-1786344896.html Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:40:15 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/japan-s-april-yen-intervention-hits-daily-record-1786144089.html Yen weakens past 158 per dollar ahead of key US jobs data MOF data shows April 30 intervention amounted to 6 trillion yen Fed data indicates Japan did not tap FIMA repo facility in recent intervention TOKYO, Aug 7 Reuters Japanese authorities conducted a record singleday yenbuying intervention in foreign exchange markets in April, selling 40 billion of the country39;s currency reserves, as they resumed massive yenbuying operations to stem the yen39;s slide. Market participants remain on high alert for further intervention as the yen is again edging lower past 158 per dollar, indicating persistent pressure on the Japanese currency as investors await U.S. employment data later in the day that could influence the Federal Reserve39;s interest rate path. Quarterly data from Japan39;s Ministry of Finance MOF released on Friday showed authorities intervened on three days from April 30 through May 6, when market liquidity was thin due to Golden Week public holidays. The largest operation amounted to 6.28 trillion yen 39.64 billion on April 30, surpassing the previous singleday record of 5.92 trillion yen set on April 29, 2024, showed MOF figures dating back to 1991. The latest data provides a detailed daily breakdown of the previously disclosed record monthly intervention of 11.7 trillion yen conducted over April 28 through May 27. The intervention helped lift the yen from a near twoyear low of 160.725 per dollar to around 155 by May 6, but did not reverse the... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/japan-s-april-yen-intervention-hits-daily-record-1786144089.html Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:30:29 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-labor-market-stable-as-q2-productivity-surges-1786038875.html Weekly jobless claims edge up 1,000 to 199,000, below economists39; expectations Planned layoffs drop 27 to 33,429 in July, a twoyear low Worker productivity grows at 1.4 pace in second quarter, beating expectations for a 0.6 rate WASHINGTON, Aug 6 Reuters The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased slightly last week, while layoffs dropped to a twoyear low in July, consistent with a stable labor market. Other data on Thursday showed worker productivity grew faster than expected in the second quarter, curbing gains in labor costs. The lack of labor market stress and contained wage pressures gave the Federal Reserve room to focus on the inflation fallout from the Middle East conflict, economists said. They said there were some signs that the adoption of artificial intelligence by businesses was raising productivity. Still, economists said the U.S. central bank could raise interest rates next month unless inflation improved. A true productivity miracle that brings down some of the higher price costs borne by consumers and business and keeps overall inflation in check depends on whether the emerging advancements in AI technology truly enable workers to produce goods more cheaply and provide services at a lower cost over time, said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 199,000 for the week ended August 1, the Labor Department said. Economists... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-labor-market-stable-as-q2-productivity-surges-1786038875.html Thu, 06 Aug 2026 07:30:38 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-s-unitree-prices-ipo-at-9-billion-valuation-1786026599.html Unitree prices Shanghai IPO at 150.8 yuan per share Company to be valued at around 61 billion yuan at time of listing Unitree says U.S. trade curbs could hurt overseas expansion BEIJINGSHANGHAISINGAPORE, Aug 6 Reuters China39;s Unitree has priced its Shanghai initial public offering at 150.8 yuan 22.34 per share, valuing the company at around 61 billion yuan 9.04 billion, it said on Thursday, in a deal that would make it the country39;s first mainlandlisted maker of humanoid robots. In a filing to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Unitree, also known as Yushu Technology, said it was seeking to raise 6.1 billion yuan. The potential valuation at the time of listing is above an earlier target of up to 50 billion yuan reported by Reuters in September. The IPO comes as the United States and China ratchet up trade and technology tensions, with Washington tightening Chinese access to U.S. technology and markets including the imposition of new restrictions on foreignmade humanoid and fourlegged robots and Beijing responding with export curbs and sanctions on selected U.S. entities. Unitree has said its existing humanoid and fourlegged robots, known for their running, dancing and acrobatic displays, have U.S. approvals, but future models could be barred from sale there. The Hangzhoubased company is selling 40.45 million new shares, or 10 of its enlarged share capital, on Shanghai39;s STAR Market, according to its sale prospectus. Chinese AI company DeepSeek is among the... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-s-unitree-prices-ipo-at-9-billion-valuation-1786026599.html Thu, 06 Aug 2026 04:50:49 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korea-says-chance-of-3-economic-growth-has-risen-sharply-1786094787.html Hong Kong regulator says such tax measure always existed AIA drops 8.5; Prudential slides more than 5 Tax move raises fears over offshore investment curbs HONG KONGBEIJING, Aug 6 Reuters China39;s mainland tax authorities have begun levying taxes on insurance policy income earned offshore, according to four people with direct knowledge of the matter, sending Hong Konglisted shares of major insurers, led by Prudential and AIA Group, sharply lower on Thursday. Beijing and Hangzhou authorities have started to apply personal income tax rates of 20 on returns from Hong Kong insurance policies, including dividend payouts and interest earned on prepaid premiums, three of the sources, who could not be named discussing confidential information, told Reuters. The Hong Kong Insurance Authority said such rules had long been in existence but did not say if their application was changing in any way. The requirement for Mainland residents to declare and pay taxes on overseas investment income according to the law has always existed, the Hong Kong Insurance Authority said in an emailed statement to Reuters, without further explanation. The regulator added that Hong Kong39;s mature insurance market remains attractive to mainland clients. Yet the tax move, dealing another blow to Hong Kong39;s status as a major financial hub for Chinese overseas wealth, was seen by analysts as a potential sharpening of China39;s scrutiny of offshore investments. MAJOR SHARE OF BUSINESS... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korea-says-chance-of-3-economic-growth-has-risen-sharply-1786094787.html Thu, 06 Aug 2026 04:30:28 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/german-june-industrial-orders-rise-more-than-expected-1786017351.html June industrial orders rise 3.1 from May, above 0.3 forecast Orders excluding largescale bookings fall 0.5 on month May orders growth revised down to 0.3 from 1.9 Aug 6 Reuters German industrial orders rose more than expected in June, but owed their jump to largescale orders and a downward revision of the previous month39;s figure, data showed on Thursday, leaving analysts cautious about the economy39;s underlying strength. Orders increased by 3.1 on the previous month on a seasonally and calendaradjusted basis, the statistics office said, rising for the second consecutive month, and well ahead of a 0.3 rise forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts. All in all, it appears that the economy is performing somewhat better than had been thought just a short time ago, said JensOliver Niklasch, an economist at Landesbank BadenWuerttemberg LBBW. However, the risk posed by volatile oil prices loomed over the economy, while low water levels in major rivers in Europe have added a new potential threat to industrial supply chains and the broader economy. 39;THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS Excluding largescale orders, new orders were 0.5 lower than in the previous month, while the May increase was revised to 0.3 from a previously reported 1.9 as a result of an adjustment for price changes. The devil is in the detail for this release, said Melanie Debono, senior Europe economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, pointing to large orders and the revision of May data. Several... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/german-june-industrial-orders-rise-more-than-expected-1786017351.html Thu, 06 Aug 2026 01:50:30 +0300