On Dec. 9, Schulze-Kraft tweeted a thread providing the basis for his ultra-optimistic prediction, presenting six “of the most important on-chain market indicators that are currently hovering at the same levels they were at the start of 2017.”
Each of Schulze-Kraft’s predictions (or estimates) see Bitcoin breaking into six-figures, with all but one suggesting that BTC will exceed $200,000
For each of the indicators, Schultze-Kraft measured the gains produced when the metric moved from a similar position in 2017 until it posted an all-time high later that year. He then multiplied Bitcoin’s current price by the same percentage increase.
Schultze-Kraft noted that Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL — “the difference between unrealized gains and losses based on when coins last moved on chain” — has climbed back up to 78% of its 2017 ATH.
Bitcoin’s price gained 1,400% to its peak, as NUPL ascended from a similar level to where it is today, in early 2017. If the same scenario played out, Kraft estimates that Bitcoin’s price could reach $286,000 this cycle.
BTC’s Market Cap to Thermocap ratio — which assesses Bitcoin’s price premium relative to miner expenditure — is currently sitting at just one-quarter of its 2017 high. In 2017, Bitcoin’s price gained 625% as the metric rose to its all-time highs, suggesting BTC could tag $138,000 in future.
Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score — which seeks to identify when Bitcoin is “over/undervalued relative to its “fair value’” — currently sits at 34% of its 2017 top, the ascent to which accompanied a 1,150% price gain. Should BTC rally with the same strength as in 2017, Kraft-Schulze estimates Bitcoin will be worth $240,000 each.