https://www.gurutrade.com/news/politics/rss/ An overview of the major political events and their influence on the global economy. Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:34:45 +0300 50 en https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-set-to-deliver-final-rate-hike-in-shortest-cycle-since-2011-1786710856.html BENGALURU, Aug 13 Reuters The European Central Bank will raise interest rates once more next month, as high energy prices push inflation further from the bank39;s 2 target, and then keep policy unchanged through at least the middle of 2027, according to a Reuters poll published on Thursday. What was initially expected to be a brief U.S.Iran conflict has entered its sixth month with no end in sight, keeping oil prices around 25 above prewar levels and lifting euro zone inflation to 2.9 last month. The central bank delivered one hike in June but paused last month while signalling another rate increase was coming. History shows the ECB has never stopped at a single rate increase and the combination of resilient economic activity, persistent price pressures and volatile energy markets strengthens the case for another move. An 83 majority of respondents, 57 of 69, in the August 1013 Reuters poll expected the ECB to raise its deposit rate by a quarter point to 2.50 in September. That compares with 72 before the July meeting and about 65 in June. The longer oil prices stay at these levels, the higher they go, the greater the risk we see secondround effects developing. The ECB can39;t do anything about the secondround effects without seeing them but they can act early which is what the ECB has been doing, said George Buckley, chief European economist at Nomura. The risk is if the ECB did just one it would look like a finetuning exercise which everyone knows you can39;t... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-set-to-deliver-final-rate-hike-in-shortest-cycle-since-2011-1786710856.html Thu, 13 Aug 2026 02:10:11 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/canada-us-hold-trade-talks-as-tariff-deadline-nears-1786526083.html OTTAWA, Aug 11 Reuters Canada39;s minister in charge of U.S. trade relations, Dominic LeBlanc, met with U.S. trade officials on Tuesday for the third time in as many weeks to try to avert looming tariffs on August 19. Today, we met with the United States Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer. We remain committed at the negotiating table and continue to work diligently to advance and staunchly defend Canadian interests, LeBlanc said in a social media post after his meeting with Greer. Canada39;s Chief Trade Negotiator Janice Charette also attended the meeting. U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed a new set of tariffs on Canadian goods that are scheduled to go into effect next week and could threaten a fragile economic recovery in Canada. Trump, who has frequently criticized Canada, a longtime U.S. ally, said last month he would impose 50 tariffs on a wide range of Canadian products in retaliation for Canada39;s countertariffs on U.S. autos and steel, as well as some Canadian provinces39; refusal to stock American alcohol. The U.S. Trade Representative39;s office said that the tariffs would apply to nearly 20 billion of imports from Canada, which is about 5.2 of the 383 billion worth of goods that the U.S. imported from Canada in 2025, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Unlike previous tariffs imposed on Canadian goods, those covered by the U.S.MexicoCanada trade agreement will not be exempted. A source familiar with the talks said last week Ottawa could... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/canada-us-hold-trade-talks-as-tariff-deadline-nears-1786526083.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:40:05 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/rba-holds-rates-warns-further-hike-quite-possible-1786452086.html RBA kept cash rate at 4.35 for second straight meeting Rate hike was discussed but board waiting for more data RBA expects inflation to be back to target band in H2 2027 SYDNEY, Aug 11 Reuters Australia39;s central bank held its cash rate steady at 4.35 for a second straight meeting on Tuesday, saying the economy was slowing as expected, but warned it might hike again if needed to control inflation. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock struck a hawkish tone at the postmeeting press conference by saying that she personally thought it was quite possible that rates may need to go up again, keeping alive the risk of a fourth rate increase this year. Wrapping up the August policy meeting, the RBA said aggregate demand needed to stay subdued to reduce capacity pressures, and it would do what was necessary to bring inflation back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise. Markets had wagered on a steady outcome given inflation data had come in under forecasts in the second quarter, while the housing market had weakened more than policymakers had expected. Bullock said unlike in June, a rate hike was discussed this time amid the reescalation in the Middle East conflict, and the board was thinking hard about when it might be appropriate to raise rates. And we will go again if we need to. And I think personally that it is quite possible we might need to go, but we will wait and see what the data tells us, said... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/rba-holds-rates-warns-further-hike-quite-possible-1786452086.html Tue, 11 Aug 2026 10:30:13 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/crypto-bill-faces-long-odds-after-senate-punts-vote-to-sept-1786534211.html September 15 cloture vote will gauge whether backers can reach the 60vote threshold Critics seek stronger antimoney laundering rules and broader state enforcement powers Time running out for lawmakers to resolve differences in election year Reuters The chances that the U.S. crypto industry will win onceinageneration digital asset legislation are dimming, despite Senate Republicans promising to advance the bill when lawmakers return to Capitol Hill next month. In a blow for the crypto industry, the Senate left Washington on Saturday for the fiveweek August recess without a muchanticipated vote on the Clarity Act, which would create a regulatory framework for digital assets. The deeppocketed industry has spent hundreds of millions of dollars campaigning to advance the bill which they say will put crypto companies on a solid legal footing, although Democrats, some Republicans and other critics say it lacks tough money laundering and ethics safeguards. With the bill facing continued opposition from key Democrats needed to clinch 60 votes, and the Senate logjammed with other business, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a Republican, on Saturday pushed a procedural vote that could kickstart the process of advancing the bill to the Senate floor to September. But many analysts and lobbyists are skeptical that it has a future. That39;s because the November elections, in which the House of Representatives and roughly a third of the Senate are up for reelection, will... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/crypto-bill-faces-long-odds-after-senate-punts-vote-to-sept-1786534211.html Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:30:25 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-s-central-bank-holds-rates-awaits-inflation-signal-1785925449.html Policy panel votes unanimously to leave repo rate steady at 5.25 RBI cuts current financial year average inflation forecast to 5 from 5.1 RBI raises GDP growth estimate to 6.7 from 6.6 for the year Central bank chief says to ensure exchange rate is not out of sync with fundamentals MUMBAI, Aug 5 Reuters The Reserve Bank of India left its benchmark repo rate INREPOECI unchanged at 5.25 on Wednesday, as policymakers await clearer evidence on whether rising oil prices are fuelling broader inflationary pressures in Asia39;s thirdlargest economy. The decision to hold rates sets India apart from a growing band of regional peers including Indonesia, the Philippines and others that have responded to the inflationary fallout from higher energy prices and wardriven currency volatility by tightening policy. Instead, the RBI announced a series of steps at the previous meeting to boost capital inflows and support the rupee. The central bank39;s sixmember rate panel, which includes three external members, voted unanimously to keep rates on hold. The ratesetting panel also retained the policy stance at neutral. An overwhelming majority of 68 out of 72 economists polled by Reuters had forecast that the RBI would stand pat on its benchmark interest rates. Headline inflation has moved above target mainly because of higher fuel prices, while broader price pressures remain in check, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said while announcing the policy. Signalling no rush to act until there... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-s-central-bank-holds-rates-awaits-inflation-signal-1785925449.html Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:30:49 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-sets-red-lines-ahead-of-eu-and-us-trade-talks-1785760913.html China39;s Politburo flags policy continuity Commerce Ministry paper dismisses socalled overcapacity Party journal defends weak consumption rate Analysts say Beijing posturing ahead of US, EU trade talks China growing in confidence it can handle Western pressure SINGAPOREBEIJING, Aug 3 Reuters China is energetically defending its economic policy mix that favours advanced industries over consumption, adopting a posture analysts see as demonstrating increasing confidence ahead of looming trade talks with Europe and the United States. President Xi Jinping and U.S. counterpart Donald Trump plan more facetoface meetings this year, while Brussels has set an October deadline for Beijing to settle disputes as worries grow over China39;s trilliondollarplus trade surplus. Western countries frame China39;s policies as mercantilist and opposing global trade rules, saying its priority for producers over households pushes cheaper goods into global markets, hollowing out industry in nations seeking more balanced growth. But a meeting of top Communist Party leaders signalled policy continuity on Thursday, calling for targeted support rather than the consumerfocused stimulus and structural changes long urged by China39;s trading partners and many economists. Days earlier, the commerce ministry accused the West of protectionism in a position paper on socalled industrial overcapacity that rejected the notion as rooted in logical flaws and ulterior motives. The ruling Communist... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-sets-red-lines-ahead-of-eu-and-us-trade-talks-1785760913.html Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:50:59 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boj-holds-rates-signals-hawkish-pivot-as-fx-props-yen-1785484068.html BOJ keeps interest rates steady at 1 BOJ warns of underlying inflation overshoot for first time BOJ highlights inflationary pressure from global AI demand Japan intervened to boost weak yen in NY market, source says TOKYO, July 31 Reuters The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Friday but warned for the first time that underlying inflation could exceed its target, signalling further rate hikes in the wake of the government39;s yenbuying intervention. The central bank also highlighted inflationary pressures from robust global AIdemand and said concern over the economic hit from the Middle East conflict was receding, underscoring its focus on inflation risks that could warrant higher rates. There is a risk underlying inflation could deviate above our 2 target as medium and longterm inflation expectations continue to rise, and firms become more active toward raising prices and wages, the BOJ said in a quarterly outlook report. We must pay due attention to keep such a risk from materialising and exert an adverse impact on the economy. That language was stronger than that used in the previous outlook report released in April, in which the BOJ said underlying inflation was approaching 2 and required the central bank to be vigilant to upside price risks. Given that underlying inflation is approaching our 2 target, we must scrutinise upside price risks more than ever, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told a news briefing. We will debate our policy from our next... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boj-holds-rates-signals-hawkish-pivot-as-fx-props-yen-1785484068.html Fri, 31 Jul 2026 10:30:25 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/indonesia-central-bank-governor-steps-down-unexpectedly-1785145230.html Destry Damayanti, BI39;s senior deputy governor, will serve as interim governor Analysts said Warjiyo39;s exit could unsettle markets over BI independence Warjiyo began his second fiveyear term as governor in 2023 Rupiah weakens, stocks choppy after the announcement JAKARTA, July 27 Reuters Indonesia39;s central bank governor, Perry Warjiyo, stepped down on Monday, a surprise move that analysts said could rattle investors worried about the central bank39;s independence, prompting the government to call for calm from market participants. Destry Damayanti, a senior deputy governor at Bank Indonesia, was appointed as interim governor after President Prabowo Subianto accepted Warjiyo39;s resignation, State Secretariat Minister Prasetyo Hadi told reporters in a press conference, ahead of the opening of financial markets in Jakarta. Destry, who pledged continuity at the central bank, said Warjiyo submitted his resignation on Saturday due to personal reasons. BI has been under pressure to support Prabowo39;s biggrowth agenda, while the rupiah slid to a historic low in June amid concern over Indonesia39;s fiscal management and central bank independence. Indonesia39;s parliament last month passed sweeping legislation that reinforces BI39;s role in supporting growth, while empowering lawmakers to make binding recommendations for independent financial regulators and the central bank. The rupiah weakened as much as 0.36 to 18,000 to the dollar following the announcement,... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/indonesia-central-bank-governor-steps-down-unexpectedly-1785145230.html Mon, 27 Jul 2026 10:10:10 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-blacklists-14-eu-entities-over-russia-sanctions-1784888768.html BEIJING, July 24 Reuters China is banning the export of dualuse items to 14 additional European Union entities with immediate effect, the Commerce Ministry said on Friday, adding that the measure was in response to the EU39;s latest sanctions against Russia. The EU adopted on Thursday its 21st package of sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine, and the Commerce Ministry said 14 Chinese mainland and Hong Kong enterprises had been put under sanction. The European entities banned by China from receiving dualuse items include German automotive and arms manufacturer Rheinmetall AG and Polish electronics company Vigo Photonics S.A., the ministry said in a statement. It said foreign organisations and individuals were also prohibited from transferring or supplying dualuse items originating in China to the entities, while Chinese exporters may apply for permission in exceptional cases. Dualuse items are goods, software or technologies that have both civilian and military applications, including certain rare earth elements that are essential for making drones and chips. Beijing39;s export control list has most frequently targeted U.S. and Japanese entities. In April, it placed seven European entities on the list over arms sales to Taiwan in a rare case of Europetargeted sanctions linked to the Taiwan issue. The EU said in a statement on Thursday that it had added 51 new entities including some based in China to the list of those subject to tighter export curbs on... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-blacklists-14-eu-entities-over-russia-sanctions-1784888768.html Fri, 24 Jul 2026 01:10:29 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/south-africa-central-bank-surprises-with-rate-hold-1784832474.html PRETORIA, July 23 Reuters South Africa39;s central bank surprised investors and economists by keeping its main lending rate unchanged on Thursday, saying its policy was restrictive enough to return inflation to its target within two years. Analysts said the bank39;s tone was much less hawkish than expected, after data showed this week that inflation had surged to its highest in two years last month. The rand currency plunged after the rate decision was announced, trading down over 2 against the dollar on the day at one point. The South African Reserve Bank39;s policy rate stays at 7. Four Monetary Policy Committee members supported the decision to keep it at that level, while two favoured an increase of 25 basis points. TIGHT ENOUGH At 5 year on year in June, inflation is currently 2 percentage points above the bank39;s 3 target. But Governor Lesetja Kganyago said it would be back within the bank39;s 1percentagepoint tolerance band next year and bang on target in 2028. He said for now the level of the policy rate was tight enough. We are in a difficult bind. The worst position for a central banker is to have rising inflation and weak demand, Kganyago said. The central bank revised down its inflation forecast for this year to 4.0 from 4.4 previously and revised up its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.4 from 1.2. ECONOMISTS DIVERGE ON INTEREST RATE PATH Sixteen out of 25 economists polled by Reuters had predicted a rate hike on Thursday, with nine expecting... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/south-africa-central-bank-surprises-with-rate-hold-1784832474.html Thu, 23 Jul 2026 07:50:09 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-keeps-rates-on-hold-leaves-room-for-more-hikes-1784832050.html FRANKFURT, July 23 Reuters The European Central Bank kept borrowing costs on hold on Thursday but left room for more tightening in the coming months as a widening conflict in the Middle East pushed up energy prices again. The ECB kept its benchmark deposit rate at 2.25 but said it was closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock, as well as its indirect and secondround effects. The outlook for energy prices, while highly volatile, currently stands close to the baseline of the June Eurosystem staff projections and well above the levels recorded prior to the conflict in the Middle East, the ECB said in a press release. Uncertainty remains high and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out. Financial markets are pricing in roughly two more hikes by the end of the year, starting at the ECB39;s next meeting on September 910. The ECB raised rates for the first time in nearly three years in June but a string of benign data on prices, wages, economic activity and inflation expectations since then has made a quick followup step less urgent and policymakers have called for patience. Thursday39;s decision leaves the rates at which banks can borrow from the ECB for a day and a week at 2.65 and 2.40, respectively. Reporting by Francesco Canepa; Editing by Catherine Evans Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-keeps-rates-on-hold-leaves-room-for-more-hikes-1784832050.html Thu, 23 Jul 2026 03:21:30 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bank-indonesia-holds-rates-offers-inflow-incentives-1784724858.html 7day reverse repurchase rate unchanged at 5.75 New incentives cut FX hedging costs with the central bank Rupiah firmed slightly after decision, near 18,000 per dollar JAKARTA, July 22 Reuters Indonesia39;s central bank kept policy rates unchanged on Wednesday, defying market expectations of another rate hike following backtoback increases aimed at supporting the rupiah currency, but it offered new incentives to attract foreign capital inflow. Bank Indonesia left the 7day reverse repurchase rate unchanged at 5.75. Twenty of 33 economists polled by Reuters had expected another 25basispoint hike, while the rest had predicted no change. It also kept its two other policy rates unchanged. BI has raised rates by a total of 100 basis points since May in a bid to attract foreign inflows to shore up the rupiah, which has come under pressure amid concerns about Indonesia39;s fiscal health, the independence of its central bank and controversial commodity export policies. The rupiah strengthened a touch to 17,875 per dollar as of 0855 GMT, versus 17,898 before BI39;s press conference. Since falling to an alltime low of 18,190 a dollar on June 8, the rupiah has recovered but continued to trade near the 18,000 mark. Instead of another hike, BI offered incentives including reducing the cost of FX hedging transactions with the central bank and encouraging the use of currencies other than the U.S. dollar to aid the rupiah, Governor Perry Warjiyo said during the online press... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bank-indonesia-holds-rates-offers-inflow-incentives-1784724858.html Wed, 22 Jul 2026 12:30:31 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ib-keeps-rates-unchanged-defying-hike-expectations-1784725158.html JAKARTA, July 22 Reuters Indonesia39;s central bank kept policy rates unchanged on Wednesday, defying market expectations of another rate hike following backtoback increases aimed at shoring up the rupiah currency. Bank Indonesia left the 7day reverse repurchase rate unchanged at 5.75. Twenty of 33 economists polled by Reuters had expected another 25 basis point hike, while the rest had correctly predicted no change. It also kept the overnight deposit facility and lending facility rates unchanged at 4.75 and 6.50, respectively. BI has raised rates by a total of 100 basis points since May in a bid to attract foreign inflows to shore up the rupiah, which has come under pressure amid concerns about Indonesia39;s fiscal health, the independence of its central bank and controversial commodity export policies. Reporting by Gayatri Suroyo, Stefanno Sulaiman, Fransiska Nangoy; Editing by David Stanway Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ib-keeps-rates-unchanged-defying-hike-expectations-1784725158.html Wed, 22 Jul 2026 10:40:56 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-hits-20b-of-canadian-goods-with-new-50-tariffs-1784607443.html Trump bases Canada action on first known use of Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act Canadian products targeted by U.S. include wine, hockey sticks, cement, dairy, swimming pools and wigs The new tariffs due to take effect on August 19 July 20 Reuters President Donald Trump unveiled 50 tariffs on a wide range of imports from Canada on Monday in response to what the U.S. administration called its discriminatory treatment of Americanmade cars, alcohol and dairy goods, threatening a new front in a global trade war. In slapping import taxes on goods ranging from wine to cement and ice hockey gear, Trump invoked Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, which permits a president to impose punitive tariffs of up to 50 against trading partners deemed to have discriminated against U.S. goods. That marked the law39;s first known usage in nearly a century of existence. The new tariffs, set to take effect in 30 days, would also apply to dairy products, swimming pools, furniture, fishing rods, seeds, clothing and wigs, among other items. The U.S. Trade Representative39;s office said that the tariffs would apply to nearly 20 billion of imports from Canada. That39;s about 5.2 of the 382 billion worth of goods that the U.S. imported from Canada in 2025, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. While the Administration continues to secure fair and reciprocal trade deals with our trading partners, Canada, unlike other partners and allies, continues to retaliate against the United States... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-hits-20b-of-canadian-goods-with-new-50-tariffs-1784607443.html Tue, 21 Jul 2026 07:30:41 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/markets-price-two-ecb-rate-hikes-by-2027-on-inflation-1784568918.html July 20 Reuters Swings in oil prices fueled a moderately volatile session for European government bonds on Monday, and inflationsensitive markets fully priced two additional ECB rate hikes by early 2027. Bond prices ended little changed but earlier rose solidly, the latest instance of traders focusing on the risk that rising energy costs could rekindle inflation and strengthen the case for further European Central Bank tightening. As Monday39;s European session wrapped up, oil prices were steady, pulling back from earlier highs as price pressure from hopes of renewed U.S.Iran negotiations was countered by Yemen39;s Houthis declaring a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. Likewise German twoyear government bond yields, sensitive to expectations for policy rates, reversed earlier gains and were down one basis point bp at 2.77 after reaching 2.8174, their highest level since July 2024. Investors widely expect the ECB to hold rates steady while avoiding commitments on the future course of interest rates, and analysts said trading was relatively muted. Despite the resurfacing tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices, these remain somewhat below the June baseline assumptions and signs of secondround effects remain limited, said Giada Giani, an economist at Citi. Money markets indicated the ECB deposit rate at 2.66 in December and 2.73 in February 2027 , up from the current 2.25. They also fully priced a rate hike in September. Analysts flagged that the tight... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/markets-price-two-ecb-rate-hikes-by-2027-on-inflation-1784568918.html Mon, 20 Jul 2026 06:30:35 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-imposes-25-tariffs-on-brazil-expands-exemptions-1784214089.html Dozens of countries could be hit by new US trade strategy Brazil tariffs take effect on July 22, USTR says Exemptions include beef, coffee, rare earths, energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts July 15 Reuters The U.S. has announced 25 duties on many imports from Brazil, while unveiling a broaderthanexpected list of exemptions, reviving a trade war that could embroil dozens of countries around the world as the Trump administration reworks its tariffs policy, one of its signature diplomatic tools. The latenight announcement by the office of the U.S. Trade Representative made Brazil the first country targeted under the Trump administration39;s new tariff strategy, which relies on Section 301 of U.S. trade law, a provision that authorizes investigations into alleged unfair trade practices, to justify new levies on dozens of countries. The new tariffs, which are expected to take effect on July 22, could eventually ensnare countries from India and China to the EU, Japan and South Korea as President Donald Trump seeks a trade reset after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a previous round of global levies. Wednesday39;s announcement by the USTR office follows months of fruitless negotiations and over 30 meetings between U.S. and Brazilian officials after the Trump administration proposed new tariffs on many imports from Brazil in June, saying its practices were unfair on a range of issues from digital trade to illegal deforestation. Extensive negotiations with... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-imposes-25-tariffs-on-brazil-expands-exemptions-1784214089.html Thu, 16 Jul 2026 03:50:14 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bok-hikes-rates-for-first-time-in-3-1-2-years-signals-more-1784211151.html Korean economy has grown faster than expected due to AI boom BOK expects GDP to 39;considerably exceed39; previous outlook Analysts expect at least one more rate hike this year SEOUL, July 16 Reuters South Korea39;s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in threeandahalf years on Thursday and flagged more to come, as brisk growth in Asia39;s fourthlargest economy fanned inflation risks. The sevenmember monetary policy board at the Bank of Korea voted to raise the sevenday repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 to stabilise a slumping won and counter persistent inflationary pressure. In a statement, the bank also said the economic growth rate for South Korea is expected to considerably exceed the bank39;s May forecast of 2.6, while inflation will remain high for a considerable time. With developments across all three areas growth, inflation, and financial stability supporting the need for an interest rate hike, it was judged appropriate to raise rates at this meeting, Governor Shin Hyun Song said in a news conference in Seoul. Unlike major countries with weak economic recoveries, demandside inflationary pressures are expected to gradually increase as the impact of the semiconductor boom spills over into domestic demand. The dollarwon rate remained muted on the widely expected decision. The benchmark KOSPI was off 6.2 as of 0318 GMT, mostly due to renewed selling in chipmakers39; stocks. The threeyear government bond yield edged... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bok-hikes-rates-for-first-time-in-3-1-2-years-signals-more-1784211151.html Thu, 16 Jul 2026 10:30:07 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korea-to-raise-rates-for-1st-time-in-over-3-yrs-on-july-16-1784014359.html BOK expected to hike base rate to 2.75 on July 16 BENGALURU, July 14 Reuters South Korea39;s central bank is expected to raise interest rates on Thursday for the first time in more than three years and deliver another increase by the end of the year, according to a Reuters poll of economists, as inflation remains well above its 2 target. Consumer inflation accelerated to a 212year high of 3.2 in June, remaining above the Bank of Korea39;s 2 target for a fourth consecutive month. It is expected to average around 3 through the second half of the year, paving the way for the start of a tightening cycle. Stronger economic growth, rising house prices and elevated household debt have given policymakers room to tighten. The economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly six years in the first quarter and BOK Governor Shin Hyunsong said it was necessary to raise interest rates as inflation was expected to exceed the BOK39;s target for a considerable period of time amid high oil prices triggered by the U.S.Israeli war on Iran. All but one of 37 economists in the July 7 to 13 Reuters poll expected the BOK to raise its base rate to 2.75 on July 16. It was relatively well broadcasted at the last meeting, when the BOK raised both its growth and inflation forecasts, said Bum Ki Son, an economist at Barclays. The governor made it clear that the bank39;s mandates were, on a rare occasion, not conflicting but pointing in the same direction for a hike. We think this meeting is likely to... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korea-to-raise-rates-for-1st-time-in-over-3-yrs-on-july-16-1784014359.html Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:30:49 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-needs-vast-fiscal-tightening-to-avert-debt-spiral-obr-1783443924.html MANCHESTER, England, July 7 Reuters Britain will need extra tax rises or spending cuts equivalent to the entire education budget early next decade to prevent government debt spiralling higher from current levels, the Office for Budget Responsibility said on Tuesday. The independent budget watchdog39;s annual look at the longterm sustainability of the public finances showed government debt was likely to move onto an unsustainable and everrising path in virtually all of its scenarios. As in past years, the OBR cited an aging population and rapidly increasing spending on healthcare as key reasons why the public finances look to be on an unsustainable footing. The findings underline the constraints facing the primeministerinwaiting Andy Burnham, who has sought to reassure investors by pledging to stick with the government39;s existing fiscal rules. The OBR39;s assessment shows the Labour government39;s existing plans, even if delivered in full, would not be enough to stop debt climbing over the longer term leaving little room for higher public spending associated with Burnham39;s platform. OBR SEES HIGH COST OF INACTION To keep public debt at its current level of around 95 of economic output in the long run, the OBR said the government would need to permanently improve the primary balance the gap between revenues and expenditure excluding debt interest by 3.8 of economic output in the 203132 financial year. This represents a oneyear adjustment that would be around... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-needs-vast-fiscal-tightening-to-avert-debt-spiral-obr-1783443924.html Tue, 07 Jul 2026 04:30:44 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/japan-denies-pressuring-boj-to-keep-interest-rates-low-1783407999.html TOKYO, July 7 Reuters Japan39;s government on Tuesday pushed back against market views it was watering down its commitment to fiscal reform and pressuring the central bank to keep rates low, as concerns over its expansionary policy push bond yields to multidecade highs. In a draft economic blueprint released last month, the government called on the Bank of Japan to align monetary policy with government efforts to boost growth and removed language pledging to improve Japan39;s fiscal health. The yield on the 10year Japanese government bond JGB rose to a 30year high of 2.83 on Monday as the draft stoked fears the administration39;s big spending plans and preference for low rates could worsen Japan39;s finances and delay BOJ rate hikes. Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi, who oversees the compilation of the blueprint, said market perception that the blueprint intended to keep BOJ rate hikes in check was a misunderstanding. There is no change to the government39;s stance that specific monetary policy means fall under the jurisdiction of the BOJ, Kiuchi told a press conference on Tuesday. He also said the government had no intention of resorting to reckless spending, adding that the draft blueprint39;s language did not signal a retreat from fiscal discipline. Kiuchi said he had no plans for now to tweak the language on fiscal and monetary policy. The draft blueprint is expected to be finalised at a cabinet meeting later this month. In the draft of Prime Minister Sanae... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/japan-denies-pressuring-boj-to-keep-interest-rates-low-1783407999.html Tue, 07 Jul 2026 09:30:03 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-keeps-benchmark-lprs-unchanged-for-13th-month-1782120887.html SHANGHAI, June 22 Reuters China left benchmark lending rates unchanged for the 13th consecutive month in June on Monday, in line with market expectations. WHY IT39;S IMPORTANT The steady loan prime rates LPRs signal authorities are in no rush to ease policy, even as broader economic divergence persists and policymakers show little concern about slowing credit growth. BY THE NUMBERS The oneyear loan prime rate LPR was kept at 3.00, while the fiveyear LPR was unchanged at 3.50. In a Reuters survey of 30 market participants conducted last week, all participants predicted no change to either of the two rates. CONTEXT Recent economic data showed that a twospeed growth pattern in the world39;s secondlargest economy, with factories buoyed by surprisingly resilient exports but domestic demand worsening amid a yearslong property downturn. Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People39;s Bank of China PBOC, told the annual Lujiazui Forum last week that loan growth has slowed in recent years, even as bond and equity financing has steadily gained traction, describing the shift as evidence of profound economic restructuring and new growth engines. China39;s new bank lending rose less than expected in May after contracting the previous month, as a prolonged property downturn continued to weigh on household borrowing. KEY QUOTES Jing Sima, chief strategist at BCA Research We do not expect outright policyrate cuts in the second half ... The persistent issue facing the aggregate... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-keeps-benchmark-lprs-unchanged-for-13th-month-1782120887.html Mon, 22 Jun 2026 07:40:57 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/russia-trims-rate-by-25-bps-to-14-25-amid-budget-risks-1781879937.html Cut is below market, analysts39; expectations Central bank cites fall in fuel output, budget deficit as risks Nabiullina reappears after threeweek sick leave Strikes on refineries add to economic woes MOSCOW, June 19 Reuters The Russian central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 14.25 on Friday, a smaller move than the 50 bps that analysts had expected, citing risks stemming from soft budget policy and a decline in fuel production. Its decision comes as Ukraine steps up drone attacks on Russia39;s refineries, energy and transport infrastructure, pushing gasoline prices higher and disrupting fuel supplies in some regions. Proinflationary risks have increased due to a temporary decline in motor fuel production, the bank said the first highprofile official confirmation of the scale of the impact of the attacks on the economy. Governor Elvira Nabiullina ended her threeweek absence from public view, which had stirred speculation that she might leave her job, saying at a news conference after the decision that she had the flu and had lost her voice for some time. Russia39;s statistical agency said average petrol prices in Russia rose by 1 in the week to June 15, just before this week39;s attack on Moscow39;s oil refinery. Petrol prices are up 6.6 so far this year, compared with an inflation rate of 5.3. Some independent petrolstation chains, which do not have their own refining capacity, hiked prices by up to 20 following this week39;s... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/russia-trims-rate-by-25-bps-to-14-25-amid-budget-risks-1781879937.html Fri, 19 Jun 2026 05:10:41 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-agency-removes-chinese-toy-drones-from-import-ban-list-1781623489.html WASHINGTON, June 16 Reuters The U.S. Federal Communications Commission said on Tuesday it will allow new models of Chinese toy drones to be imported into the United States. In December, the FCC said it was barring imports of all new models of foreignmade drones and critical components including from China39;s DJI and Autel, saying they pose unacceptable risks to U.S. national security. The FCC has since allowed for the import of some new models of drones. The FCC said it was acting on a Pentagon determination that national security risks are not posed by unsophisticated, lowrisk toys and lack the organic capabilities and features in range, endurance, sensing, payload, connectivity, and data collection and storage found in traditional drones. Reporting by David Shepardson, Editing by Franklin Paul Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-agency-removes-chinese-toy-drones-from-import-ban-list-1781623489.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 06:20:47 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bank-of-japan-raises-interest-rates-to-31-year-high-1781599843.html BOJ raises policy rate to 1 from 0.75 in widely expected move Governor Ueda skips meeting, vote, for medical treatment Dovish newcomer Asada dissents to ratehike decision BOJ decides to pause bond buying taper from April 2027 onward TOKYO, June 16 Reuters The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 31year high on Tuesday, marking another landmark step in normalising monetary policy as it focused on taming price pressures from the energy shock caused by the Iran war. The hike was the first since December and aligns the BOJ with other central banks shifting towards tighter policy to combat inflation, including the European Central Bank. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida acknowledged the recent U.S.Iranian peace deal, which he described as a welcome move, but noted persistent inflationary risks. Compared with the previous meeting, the risk of a sharp deterioration in the economy has diminished. On the other hand, price rises are broadening and there is a risk underlying inflation may deviate from our target, Uchida said in a news conference he held on behalf of Governor Kazuo Ueda, who missed the meeting for medical treatment. In a widely expected move, the BOJ decided to raise its shortterm policy rate to 1 from 0.75, taking borrowing costs to levels unseen since 1995. In a statement announcing the decision, the BOJ said the risk of Japan39;s economy deteriorating sharply from the Middle East conflict has diminished due to progress made in procuring alternative... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bank-of-japan-raises-interest-rates-to-31-year-high-1781599843.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 10:40:43 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/rba-warns-rate-hikes-might-not-be-over-after-holding-fire-1781598992.html SYDNEY, June 16 Reuters Australia39;s central bank held its cash rate steady at 4.35 on Tuesday, saying the economy was slowing in the face of tighter financial conditions but warned it might yet hike again if needed to control inflation. Wrapping up its June policy meeting after pausing for the first time this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA said inflation was still too high and it would do whatever necessary to bring it down including increasing the cash rate target further if required. Markets had wagered on a steady outcome following a run of softer domestic data on inflation, consumer demand and employment, while a peace deal in the Middle East to reopen the Strait of Hormuz had pulled down oil prices and lessened inflation risks. Resolution of the conflict in the Middle East is at an early stage, and there are plausible scenarios where inflation is higher and activity lower than envisaged under the May baseline forecasts, said the board in a statement. Global oil supply issues will take some time to resolve, maintaining upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation. The unanimous decision was largely as expected. The Australian dollar held onto earlier losses and was down 0.3 at 0.7050, while threeyear government bond yields edged up 2 basis points to 4.457. Swaps imply around a 30 chance of a move in August, and just a total tightening of 16 basis points for the year, equivalent to less than one rate hike. Todays decision reflects a... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/rba-warns-rate-hikes-might-not-be-over-after-holding-fire-1781598992.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 09:30:59 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bank-of-england-to-keep-rates-on-hold-after-ecb-hike-1781517084.html BoE looks set to keep rates on hold at 3.75 on Thursday Governor Bailey sees policy as tighter than before Iran war UK economy shrank in April but inflation set to climb Other officials may join chief economist in voting for hike now LONDON, June 15 Reuters The Bank of England looks set to keep interest rates at 3.75 on Thursday as Governor Andrew Bailey judges the central bank can take its time to assess if higher energy prices from the Iran war will generate lasting inflation pressure. Unlike the European Central Bank, which raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years last week, Bailey views the BoE as effectively having done the same already by halting its previous plans to cut rates this year. We have already tightened policy considerably in response to the shock relative to what had been expected by markets. And that is already affecting the economy, Bailey told fellow central bankers at a conference in Reykjavik last month. UK ECONOMY SHRANK IN APRIL Official data last week showed Britain39;s economy shrank 0.1 in April after expanding by 0.3 in the first quarter of the year, while the Confederation of British Industry predicted unemployment would hit an 11year high of 5.5. Against this backdrop, the rise in inflation to just over 3.5 later this year that the Bank of England sees as possible may squeeze households and boost inflation worries but poses less risk of inciting a spiral of rising wages and prices. This is a kind of... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bank-of-england-to-keep-rates-on-hold-after-ecb-hike-1781517084.html Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:20:04 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/hugo-boss-shares-jump-after-frasers-2-3-bln-takeover-bid-1781166000.html June 11 Reuters Shares in Hugo Boss rose about 7 on Thursday after Britains Frasers Group launched a 2.3 billion takeover offer for the German fashion brand. Frasers, already the largest shareholder of Hugo Boss with a stake of just over 26, is offering 38 per share in cash for the remaining shares, a 4.3 premium to Wednesdays close. Hugo Boss said late on Wednesday the approach was not coordinated with the company and that its board would review the offer, which values the stake not yet owned by Frasers at about 1.98 billion 2.3 billion. The deal would bring Hugo Boss into the retail empire controlled by British billionaire Mike Ashley, whose Frasers Group owns Sports Direct and House of Fraser and holds stakes in Asos, Debenhams and Currys. J.P. Morgan said the bid likely sets a nearterm floor for the shares but flagged limited scope for further upside, adding it did not expect a rival bidder to emerge. Hugo Boss, whose shares are about half their level of three years ago, has been struggling with weaker sales and is pursuing a turnaround strategy focused on store revamps, a streamlined product range and expanding women39;s wear. By 0713 GMT, Hugo Boss shares were up 6.2 at 38.7, above Frasers39; offer price, taking their yeartodate gains to 7.2. Frasers shares fell 2.5. 1 0.8664 euros Reporting by Ozan Ergenay and Danilo Masoni, editing by Milla NissiPrussak Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/hugo-boss-shares-jump-after-frasers-2-3-bln-takeover-bid-1781166000.html Thu, 11 Jun 2026 10:40:27 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-eyes-10-12-5-tariffs-on-60-states-for-forced-labor-1780476548.html June 2 Reuters The Trump administration on Tuesday proposed imposing additional duties of 10 or 12.5 on imports from 60 economies after determining their failures to curb trade in goods made with forced labor are unreasonable and restrict U.S. commerce. The proposal from the U.S. Trade Representative39;s office is the latest finding from a Section 301 unfair trade practices investigation to be released as the Trump administration seeks to rebuild its emergency tariffs, which were struck down by a U.S. Supreme Court decision in February. The USTR said it determined that it would impose 10 duties related to the forced labor investigation on imports from Canada, Ecuador, the European Union, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan and Britain. The trade agency said it would impose additional duties of 12.5 on the remaining 45 countries that it investigated. The failure of our most important trading partners to address the importation of goods made with forced labor is unacceptable, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement. This creates a dynamic where American workers are forced to compete globally on an unlevel playing field. The USTR said it also was proposing a textile mechanism that would allow for a certain volume of apparel and textile imports to enter the U.S. at a reduced tariff rate, though the duties and volumes were not disclosed. The announcement comes ahead of... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-eyes-10-12-5-tariffs-on-60-states-for-forced-labor-1780476548.html Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:50:14 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-june-hike-nearly-sealed-july-fully-open-sources-say-1779297575.html FRANKFURT, May 20 Reuters The case for a European Central Bank rate hike in June is nearly sealed but the bank is likely to be noncommittal about any further move, looking to temper bets for a quick followup step in July, four sources told Reuters. The ECB kept rates unchanged in April but it debated a hike and signalled that a move on June 11 was likely given persistently high energy costs. The inflation outlook is now moving towards the banks adverse scenario and no peace in Iran is in sight, so the bank must act at its next meeting, because price growth is already at 3, well above the 2 target, and the bank also needed to preserve credibility after signalling the move, the sources said. Even if a peace agreement was reached before the meeting, there would be no assurances that it holds and energy prices would remain high for some time because it takes time for the market to normalise, they added. An ECB spokesperson declined to comment. The sources said no decision has actually been made yet. A followup hike is not urgent, however, as price pressures are far more benign than in 2022, when the last major inflation shock hit, and secondround effects from the price spike are not yet visible, the sources added. Expensive energy and a soft labour market will also weigh on growth and ultimately dampen price pressures in the medium term, the time horizon most relevant for policymakers. These factors suggest that the bank may be able to skip July and wait for fresh... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-june-hike-nearly-sealed-july-fully-open-sources-say-1779297575.html Wed, 20 May 2026 05:50:22 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/indonesia-hikes-rates-sharply-to-defend-battered-rupiah-1779269316.html Bank Indonesia raises key rate by biggerthanexpected 50 bps BI says raised rates to support rupiah, which has fallen to record lows BI maintains its inflation and growth outlooks JAKARTA, May 20 Reuters Indonesia39;s central bank raised its policy interest rates by a largerthanexpected 50 basis points at a policy review on Wednesday, as it works to support the rupiah currency which has fallen to a series of record lows in recent days. Raising rates for the first time in two years, Bank Indonesia BI lifted its benchmark 7day reverse repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 5.25, double the size of hike expected by economists in a Reuters poll. It also raised the overnight deposit facility and lending facility rates by the same amount, to 4.25 and 6.00, respectively. The increase is a further step to strengthen the stabilisation of the rupiah exchange rate amid global volatility due to the Middle East war, as well as a preemptive measure to keep inflation within the target range in 2026 and 2027, Governor Perry Warjiyo said in an online press conference. The rupiah has repeatedly hit new record lows against the dollar recently with investor concerns about the economic fallout from the Iran war compounding unease over Jakarta39;s spending plans, the independence of its central bank and transparency in the capital markets. We think the bold 50 basis point hike by BI not only shows the shift of priority to FX stability but also displays BI39;s maintained credibility... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/indonesia-hikes-rates-sharply-to-defend-battered-rupiah-1779269316.html Wed, 20 May 2026 11:40:55 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/rba-saw-space-to-assess-impact-of-gulf-conflict-after-may-rate-hike-1779207864.html SYDNEY, May 19 Reuters Australia39;s central bank judged interest rates to be restrictive after three hikes this year, giving it space to watch how the Iran war plays out even though inflation is set to trend higher and economic growth to slow. Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia39;s May board meeting released on Tuesday showed the policy board discussed two cases of either holding the interest rates steady or raising by 25 basis points to 4.35, so fully reversing the amount of policy easing made in 2025. Eight of the nine members judged the case for a hike was a stronger one, given risks to inflation had risen as the Middle East conflict dragged on and they were not confident that a cash rate at 4.1 was high enough to mitigate the risks. Members judged that, while it was still uncertain, financial conditions would probably be somewhat restrictrive after this decision, said the board, adding that this would give it space to see how businesses and households respond to the Middle East conflict. Members agreed to closely monitor economic data and evolving risks for future decisions, but noted monetary policy could not alter the nearterm trajectory of inflation and output growth would be likely lower than potential growth for some time. One member that voted against the hike judged the risk of a prolonged conflict would weigh more heavily on demand and there was not enough evidence as yet to be concerned about longerterm inflation expectations becoming less... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/rba-saw-space-to-assess-impact-of-gulf-conflict-after-may-rate-hike-1779207864.html Tue, 19 May 2026 07:50:46 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-uae-deepen-defence-and-energy-ties-during-modi-visit-1778855428.html India, UAE deepen ties on areas including defence and energy Accords follow UAE39;s OPEC exit and turmoil amid Iran war Indian PM Modi visits UAE on Friday as part of fivenation tour Stronger UAEIndia ties come amid stronger SaudiPakistani links NEW DELHIDUBAI, May 15 Reuters India and the United Arab Emirates agreed the framework for a strategic defence partnership on Friday, the Indian foreign ministry said, as they seek to deepen ties amid the Iran war. The two countries also signed pacts on strategic petroleum reserves and supply of liquefied petroleum gas during a visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the UAE, it added. The two sides have agreed on deepening defence industrial collaboration and cooperation on innovation and advanced technology, training, exercises, maritime security, cyber defence, secure communications and information exchange, the ministry said in a statement. Ahead of the visit, Indian sources told Reuters that Modi was likely to discuss longterm energy supply deals and also seek support to expand New Delhi39;s strategic oil reserves. The UAE39;s decision last month to leave OPEC is expected to boost its output and help importers such as India. The Iran war has roiled global energy markets with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting transportation and business across the region as Iranian strikes hit Gulf states, including the UAE, before a fragile ceasefire last month. The oil pact announced on Friday includes a potential... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-uae-deepen-defence-and-energy-ties-during-modi-visit-1778855428.html Fri, 15 May 2026 04:50:45 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/peru-s-central-bank-holds-benchmark-interest-rate-at-4-25-1778859294.html Peru39;s central bank held its benchmark interest rate for the eighth straight time on Thursday, keeping it at 4.25, in line with analysts39; expectations, after inflation in April remained outside the bank39;s target range. Peru39;s inflation has risen recently after a series of energy shocks sent prices soaring in March, with the monthly inflation rate jumping to an over threedecade high. Inflation eased in April, but the annual rate still climbed to 4.01 well above the central bank39;s target range of 13. The central bank39;s board said in a statement on Thursday that since most of the recent inflation has been associated with temporary supplyside factors, it sees inflation falling to around 2 in 2027 as these supply shocks dissipate. Global risk remains elevated due to the conflict in the Middle East, reflected in greater financial market volatility and high international oil prices. Despite this, global economic growth prospects for this year remain positive, and the terms of trade remain favorable for the Peruvian economy, the central bank added. Peruvians will head back to the polls next month to choose a new president in a runoff election. Conservative Keiko Fujimori and leftist Roberto Sanchez are leading the vote count in the final stretch of Peru39;s first round vote, held last month. The final two candidates facing off in June39;s runoff are expected to be announced in coming days. Reporting by Marco Aquino and Brendan O39;Boyle; Editing by Daina Beth... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/peru-s-central-bank-holds-benchmark-interest-rate-at-4-25-1778859294.html Fri, 15 May 2026 07:30:47 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-officials-back-rate-hike-as-inflation-may-linger-1777626989.html ECB faces risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched Rate hike may be necessary as soon as June, says Nagel Markets now see three rate hikes FRANKFURT, May 1 Reuters The European Central Bank may need to tighten policy, perhaps as soon as June, policymakers said on Friday, warning that the inflation outlook is deteriorating and the risk is rising that high price growth gets entrenched. The ECB left interest rates unchanged on Thursday but debated hiking rates and signalled, in both on and offrecord comments, that higher rates would remain on the agenda as it fears an energyinduced inflation spike could persist beyond a oneoff impact. From todays perspective, the situation is evolving less favourably than in the earlier baseline scenario, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said. This makes it all the more appropriate for the Governing Council to respond in June if the outlook does not improve markedly. The ECB outlined a baseline, an adverse and a severe scenario for growth and inflation in March and even its most benign outlook assumed some policy tightening. Estonian central bank chief Madis Muller also warned on Friday that the ECB39;s 2 deposit rate may need to rise. We did not yet consider it necessary to raise interest rates this week, but it is increasingly likely that we will have to do so in the future, he said in a blog post. There are already signs that rising energy prices are being passed on to other products and services. The ECB can not lower... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-officials-back-rate-hike-as-inflation-may-linger-1777626989.html Fri, 01 May 2026 11:50:19 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/chile-s-central-bank-holds-rate-amid-mideast-war-risk-1777470070.html SANTIAGO, Reuters Chile39;s central bank on Tuesday held its benchmark interest rate at 4.5 in a unanimous decision, in line with expectations and marking its third consecutive decision to maintain the rate. In a statement, Chile39;s central bank said the prolongation of the war in the Middle East was worsening forecasts for global inflation and economic activity, and increasing risks that oil prices will remain high. Tuesday39;s decision follows two consecutive holds in January and March. Although oil price futures continue to point to a decline, the prolongation of the conflict has increased the risks that prices will remain high, the bank said, noting prices have settled above those envisioned in last month39;s monetary policy report. It also said the course of the war so far has been more adverse than the baseline scenario of last month39;s report, noting that the macroeconomic outlook remains subject to a higherthanusual degree of uncertainty. The central bank also pointed to higher copper prices. Chile is the world39;s top producer of the red metal, considered an economic bellwether due to its uses across many sectors. For March, Chile recorded inflation up 2.8 from a year earlier, pushed up by higher transport costs and amid a steep hike in fuel prices conducted by the new government of President Jose Antonio Kast. The measure, which seeks to bring domestic prices in line with surging international rates, hit Kast39;s popularity early in his term and... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/chile-s-central-bank-holds-rate-amid-mideast-war-risk-1777470070.html Wed, 29 Apr 2026 07:40:04 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bok-minutes-cautious-on-rates-amid-war-uncertainty-1777396484.html SEOUL, April 28 Reuters South Korea39;s monetary policy board said a cautious, waitandsee approach is appropriate for now as heightened uncertainty from the Iran war warrants more monitoring of its impact on growth and inflation, minutes from central bank39;s previous meeting showed on Tuesday. While the focus has been on financial stability until the beginning of the year, I believe we should shift our focus to alleviating inflationary pressure for the time being, one member said. The Bank of Korea39;s monetary policy board voted on April 10 to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50, a move anticipated by all 31 economists polled by Reuters. The hold reflects the bind the BOK finds itself in, with the economy caught between growth headwinds and an inflationary energy shock that could emerge to complicate any policy tightening ahead. Among 30 analysts polled, 26 expected no change to the benchmark rate through the end of this year. Three forecast the policy rate to rise to 2.75 by yearend, while one expected it to reach 3. Reporting by Cynthia Kim; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Jacqueline Wong Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bok-minutes-cautious-on-rates-amid-war-uncertainty-1777396484.html Tue, 28 Apr 2026 01:10:45 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boc-to-hold-rates-at-2-25-as-oil-shock-seen-short-lived-1777301081.html Economists say oil shock impact on inflation is temporary, no immediate rate hike needed Money markets expect possible rate hike later in year, diverging from economists39; forecasts BoC to update economic forecasts, focus on wage growth and fiscal policy response OTTAWA, April 27 Reuters The Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates on hold at 2.25 on Wednesday as the oil price shock from the Iran war is a temporary blip unlikely to have a lasting impact on inflation expectations, economists said. Central banks act if inflation expectations signal sustained price pressures. Economists say the rise in gasoline prices as a result of the Iran war may lift April inflation but higher prices are unlikely to last long enough to warrant action. Canada39;s annual inflation rate rose to 2.4 in March as higher crude oil costs drove up gasoline prices. While inflation rose to its highest since December, it remains around the midpoint of the BoC39;s 1 to 3 target range. At the same time, the economy, while avoiding a recession many feared from U.S. tariffs, has been weak. Governor Tiff Macklem said earlier this month he was not concerned about the nearterm spike in inflation expectations due to the war. Economists said that a policy move would be needed only if inflation, driven by higher gasoline costs, remained elevated. What the bank is looking for is whether these expectations of inflation become ingrained among consumers and among businesses, and right now, we are not... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boc-to-hold-rates-at-2-25-as-oil-shock-seen-short-lived-1777301081.html Mon, 27 Apr 2026 04:40:21 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boe-to-keep-rates-on-hold-while-it-gauges-impact-of-iran-war-1777277672.html oE expected to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday MPC seen voting 81 for no change, Reuters poll shows Governor Bailey has warned against bets on rate hikes BoE chief economist has challenged 39;wait and see39; plan Rate decision to be followed by press conference LONDON, April 27 Reuters The Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold this week and try to look ahead to the damage building up for Britain39;s economy from the Iran war, while investors will be watching for any signs it is moving towards raising rates. The BoE kept borrowing costs on hold in March as it waited to see the extent of the inflationary and growth hits from the conflict. With uncertainty still high, another nochange decision is expected on Thursday. But investors say rate hikes are likely later this year. On Friday, they fully priced a quarterpoint increase in July, another in September and a small chance of a third by yearend, despite Governor Andrew Bailey warning that such moves would be premature. Those bets will intensify on Thursday this week if some Monetary Policy Committee members decide the risks of another bout of high inflation with memories still fresh of how it surpassed 11 in 2022 merit a rate hike now. Economists polled by Reuters last week mostly expected an 81 vote by the MPC to keep Bank Rate at 3.75 this week after March39;s 90 vote. Unlike financial markets, they mostly do not foresee rate hikes this year. But some analysts said as many as three... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boe-to-keep-rates-on-hold-while-it-gauges-impact-of-iran-war-1777277672.html Mon, 27 Apr 2026 08:50:34 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/singapore-tightens-monetary-policy-iran-war-fuels-inflation-risks-1776162353.html MAS increases slightly the rate of appreciation of the SNEER policy band Warns of inflation, growth risks from Iran war Singapore Q1 flash GDP lower than expected, contracts 0.3 qq 2026 core and headline inflation outlooks revised higher Economists see possible further tightening if inflation persists SINGAPORE, April 14 Reuters Singapore39;s central bank tightened its monetary policy settings on Tuesday, flagging the risk that an Iran warfuelled energy shock could push up core inflation even as mounting pressure on growth was underscored by a firstquarter economic contraction. The Middle East conflict has upended global growth and inflation trajectories, throwing interestrate expectations into disarray. As a small tradedependent hub, Singapore is especially vulnerable to supplychain disruptions and volatile energy prices. The Monetary Authority of Singapore MAS said it would increase slightly the rate of appreciation of the SNEER policy band, in line with what most analysts polled by Reuters had expected. MAS said there would be no change to its width and the level at which it is centred. There are considerable risks around the outlook for inflation and growth, MAS said, adding that the Middle East situation is evolving and remains highly uncertain. GDP growth in the Singapore economy will slow over the course of this year, while the output gap should average around 0, the central bank said. Of the 13 analysts polled by Reuters ahead of the review, 11... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/singapore-tightens-monetary-policy-iran-war-fuels-inflation-risks-1776162353.html Tue, 14 Apr 2026 08:00:07 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korea-holds-rates-steady-as-iran-war-fans-inflation-growth-risks-1775816342.html BOK holds policy interest rate at 2.50 as expected BOK flags lower GDP expansion, higher price pressure for 2026 Governor Rhee to be replaced by incoming chief Shin Hyunsong SEOUL, April 10 Reuters South Korea39;s central bank kept its policy interest rate steady on Friday and warned of a highly uncertain path ahead as a broadening conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail growth and worsen inflation. The Bank of Korea flagged both the risk of a resurgent inflationary spiral fueled by crude prices and slower growth after the board voted to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50. All 31 economists polled by Reuters expected policy rates to remain on hold. If we look at the impact of supplyside shocks, it is much bigger for Asia especially Korea, Japan, and Taiwan and these shocks could widen, Governor Rhee Changyong said at a news conference in Seoul, his last before his term ends on April 20. Although we are responding to price risks by capping fuel prices, that is not a permanent measure, so inflation risks are growing should the Middle East situation drag on. In a statement, the BOK warned growth will likely fall short of its 2.0 February forecast, while headline inflation could exceed considerably the projected 2.2 for this year as rising oil prices and a weaker won drive up import costs. South Korea39;s policysensitive threeyear treasury bond futures erased early gains to fall as much as 0.14 points to 104.24 during the press conference.... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korea-holds-rates-steady-as-iran-war-fans-inflation-growth-risks-1775816342.html Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:30:02 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-cbank-holds-rates-as-mideast-crisis-clouds-growth-stokes-inflation-risks-1775634456.html RBI holds rates; monetary policy stance retained at neutral Rate panel to wait and watch for impact of Middle East crisis GDP growth seen at 6.9 in 202627; CPI inflation forecast at 4.6 To judiciously contain excessive volatility in rupee, central bank says MUMBAI, April 8 Reuters The Reserve Bank of India kept its key policy rate unchanged on Wednesday while warning of lower growth and higher inflation as the Middle East crisis reverses a Goldilocks phase for the South Asian economy. Overnight, the U.S and Iran announced a twoweek ceasefire in hostilities after more than a month of fighting, which pushed oil prices sharply higher and disrupted the supply of gas to economies the world over. India, which imports 90 of its oil supplies, is seen as among the most vulnerable if disruptions caused by the war stretch out. Reflecting that nervousness, the Indian rupee fell to a record low as foreign investors pulled nearly 19 billion between March and April so far. The central bank39;s rate panel, however, thought it is prudent to wait and watch the changing circumstances and the evolving growthinflation outlook, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said while announcing the policy decision. The RBI39;s sixmember monetary policy committee voted to keep the repo rate steady at 5.25. All six members of the rate panel, which includes three central bank officials and three external appointees, voted to hold rates. The MPC also decided to continue with its neutral stance.... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-cbank-holds-rates-as-mideast-crisis-clouds-growth-stokes-inflation-risks-1775634456.html Wed, 08 Apr 2026 10:00:19 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-to-maintain-appropriately-loose-monetary-policy-1774960808.html BEIJING, March 31 Reuters China39;s central bank pledged on Tuesday to maintain appropriately loose monetary policy, while noting growing impacts from changes in the external environment. China39;s economy is broadly stable but still faces challenges such as strong supply, weak demand and external shocks, the People39;s Bank of China said in the readout of its firstquarter monetary policy committee meeting. The central bank reiterated pledges for keeping liquidity ample, guiding a recovery in prices and keeping the yuan exchange rate basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels. Reporting by Beijing Newsroom; Editing by Bernadette Baum Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-to-maintain-appropriately-loose-monetary-policy-1774960808.html Tue, 31 Mar 2026 01:30:08 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-fixed-30-yr-mortgage-rate-hits-3-month-high-amid-iran-war-1773951790.html WASHINGTON, March 19 Reuters The average rate on the popular U.S. 30year fixedrate mortgage surged to a threemonth high this week as war in the Middle East stoked inflation fears, dealing a blow to the Trump administration39;s efforts to make housing more affordable. The 30year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.22, highest since early December, up from 6.11 last week, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac said on Thursday. Rising mortgage rates, if sustained, could hamper home sales during the typically busy spring season. The benchmark rate fell to 5.98 on the eve of the U.S.Israeli war with Iran after President Donald Trump ordered Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to expand purchases of mortgagebacked securities. It reversed course as the conflict drove up oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. Mortgage rates track the benchmark 10year Treasury yield. Housing affordability has become an increasingly potent political issue ahead of the November midterm elections. Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; editing by David Gaffen Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-fixed-30-yr-mortgage-rate-hits-3-month-high-amid-iran-war-1773951790.html Thu, 19 Mar 2026 06:40:17 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/swiss-national-bank-holds-rates-amid-iran-war-watches-franc-strength-1773922906.html Swiss franc this month hit highest vs euro since 2015 SNB zero rate is lowest among major central banks Swiss annual inflation running at only 0.1 2026 inflation forecast raised to 0.5 from 0.3 ZURICH, March 19 Reuters The Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate on hold on Thursday in the face of uncertainty over the Iran war, and signalled its increased readiness to intervene in currency markets to curb a recent surge in the Swiss franc fuelled by a flight to safety amid the global turmoil. The SNB maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0, the lowest among major central banks, as expected by a wide majority of analysts polled by Reuters. The decision came on a busy day for central banks, after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept rates unchanged, highlighting unusually high uncertainty as policymakers take stock of the impact of the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran. READY TO INTERVENE TO COUNTER FRANC39;S RISE Given the conflict in the Middle East, the SNB39;s willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased, said SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel, reiterating the message the central bank sent to markets earlier this month. We thereby counter a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability in Switzerland, he said. The franc weakened briefly after the decision, but soon recovered to trade a touch higher against the euro and dollar . It wasn39;t a surprise the SNB didn39;t change its... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/swiss-national-bank-holds-rates-amid-iran-war-watches-franc-strength-1773922906.html Thu, 19 Mar 2026 01:40:56 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/snb-monetary-policy-assessment-of-march-19-2026-1773923314.html ZURICH, March 19 Reuters The Swiss National Bank made the following statement after its policy review on Thursday The Swiss National Bank is leaving the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0. Banks sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold. The discount for sight deposits above this threshold still stands at 0.25 percentage points. Given the conflict in the Middle East, the SNBs willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased. The SNB thereby counters a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability in Switzerland. The conditional inflation forecast for the coming quarters is higher than in December due to the rise in energy prices. Mediumterm inflationary pressure, however, has remained virtually unchanged since the last monetary policy assessment. The monetary policy helps to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability and supports economic development. The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust its monetary policy if necessary, in order to ensure price stability over the medium term. As expected, inflation has risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, from 0.0 in November to 0.1 in February. This increase was driven in particular by higher goods inflation. With the rise in energy prices due to the escalation in the Middle East, inflation is likely to increase more strongly in the coming... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/snb-monetary-policy-assessment-of-march-19-2026-1773923314.html Thu, 19 Mar 2026 12:30:42 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boe-to-sit-tight-middle-east-conflict-turns-up-inflation-heat-1773925955.html BoE set to keep Bank Rate at 3.75 A cut had been expected before Middle East war Lack of clarity likely to make BoE guidance vague Announcement due at 1200 GMT, no press conference LONDON, March 19 Reuters The Bank of England on Thursday looks set to delay an interest rate cut that seemed a sure bet before the war in the Middle East, and it will probably sound vague about its next steps while it waits to see the extent of the inflationary shock. The BoE has cut borrowing costs more slowly than the European Central Bank since 2024 because of its worries about Britain39;s stubbornly stronger price pressures. Just when it looked like British inflation was going to drop to the BoE39;s target of 2 and stay there, the jump in oil and gas prices threatens to push it back up to 3 or higher. INVESTORS RETHINK THE OUTLOOK That is still a far cry from the peak of 11.1 in 2022 after Russia39;s fullscale invasion of Ukraine caused a much bigger spike in energy prices. But investors have ditched bets that the BoE would cut rates twice this year. On Wednesday, they were pricing the chance of a hike by November as a strong probability. Most economists think a pause in the BoE39;s run of rate cuts is more likely than a full Uturn by the Monetary Policy Committee given the fragile state of the UK economy. We see a high hurdle for hikes, James Moberly, senior UK economist at Goldman Sachs, said. Unlike in 2022, the starting point for monetary policy is restrictive and the MPC... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boe-to-sit-tight-middle-east-conflict-turns-up-inflation-heat-1773925955.html Thu, 19 Mar 2026 07:40:14 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/fed-likely-to-hold-rates-steady-iran-war-shocks-policy-debate-1773824116.html Fed faces inflation, growth dilemma amid Iran conflict US gasoline prices up more than 25 since war began Fed policymakers39; projections could lean towards stagflation WASHINGTON, March 18 Reuters Federal Reserve officials, convening in a wartime setting that began less than three weeks ago, are expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, but more significantly to outline in a new policy statement and projections how they feel President Donald Trump39;s decision to launch an openended conflict with Iran has recast the outlook for the U.S. economy, inflation and monetary policy. There are no sure bets, and without a clear stopping point to the U.S.Israeli bombing campaign, economists say the domestic and global impacts hinge on how long the war continues, on the structure of whatever Iranian government emerges at the end of it, and whether oil prices rise further beyond 100 a barrel or recede soon to their prewar levels below 80. The average price of gasoline in the U.S. was 3.79 per gallon as of Tuesday, more than 25 higher than before the war, according to data from motorist advocacy group AAA. A variety of other prices could rise in turn Airlines have begun warning of rising travel costs as the price of jet fuel surges, and a White House official said the U.S. was seeking other sources of agricultural fertilizers. As consumers cope with higher oilrelated prices, they may cancel purchases or try to scale back spending altogether, while U.S. trading... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/fed-likely-to-hold-rates-steady-iran-war-shocks-policy-debate-1773824116.html Wed, 18 Mar 2026 08:00:47 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/morocco-cb-expects-stable-inflation-as-holds-benchmark-rate-at-2-25-1773765277.html RABAT, March 17 Reuters Morocco39;s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25 on Tuesday, saying inflation would remain moderate this year despite heightened global economic uncertainties around conflict in the Gulf. The impact of war in the Middle East would remain relatively contained in the baseline scenario of a shortlived conflict, the central bank said. However, the repercussions could become more significant if it were to drag on or escalate, particularly through externalaccount pressures and higher energy prices, it added. Inflation is expected to remain stable at 0.8 in 2026, before picking up to 1.4 next year, the central bank said in a statement after its quarterly meeting. The central bank revised upwards its growth forecast in 2026 to 5.6, from 4.8 last year thanks to an improvement in farming output after abundant rainfall ended a sevenyear drought. The cereals harvest is seen growing to 8.2 million metric tons this year, the central bank said. Growth would slow to 3.5 next year, assuming an average harvest, it said. Morocco39;s current account deficit is expected to expand to 3.1 of GDP in 2026, from 2.3 last year, due to a surge in energy imports. Phosphate and fertiliser sales, remittances from Moroccans abroad, tourism and foreign direct investment would rise in 2026, it said. Morocco39;s foreign exchange reserves are seen growing to 482 billion dirhams 51.5 billion by 2027, enough to cover 5.5 months of import needs, the... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/morocco-cb-expects-stable-inflation-as-holds-benchmark-rate-at-2-25-1773765277.html Tue, 17 Mar 2026 04:30:35 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/indonesia-holds-rates-steady-signals-iran-war-limits-room-for-cuts-1773758762.html BI cites impact of Iran war reduces possibility of future rate cuts BI tightens currency transaction rules to support rupiah BI expects stable rupiah, maintains GDP growth forecast at 4.95.7 JAKARTA, March 17 Reuters Indonesia39;s central bank kept its key interest rates unchanged on Tuesday and signalled little room for rate cuts ahead given the impact of the war in the Middle East. Bank Indonesia held the benchmark 7day reverse repurchase rate at 4.75, as had been forecast by 24 of 26 economists polled by Reuters, and also held its overnight deposit and lending facility rates at 3.75 and 5.50, respectively. The impact of this Middle East war is indeed why we no longer convey the possibility of an interest rate cut in this statement, BI governor Perry Warjiyo said in an online press conference. We are likely to maintain the BI rate for now to strengthen FX intervention. BI also said some rules on currency transactions would be tightened from next month to support the rupiah . The currency has traded at record lows near 17,000 per dollar this month after a spike in crude prices caused by the war stoked inflation fears globally. It was unchanged at 16,980 per dollar after the BI announcement on interest rates. The currency was already under pressure amid investor concerns over fiscal management, central bank independence and governance of the country39;s stock market. The onhold decision underscores the central bank39;s focus on financial market stability, in... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/indonesia-holds-rates-steady-signals-iran-war-limits-room-for-cuts-1773758762.html Tue, 17 Mar 2026 01:30:42 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/hawkish-boj-board-member-calls-for-focus-on-inflation-overshoot-risk-1772101331.html BOJ must raise rates in gradual manner, Takata says Hard to predetermine desirable pace, degree of rate hikes BOJ must 39;take time and be prudent39; in bond taper KYOTO, Japan, Feb 26 Reuters The Bank of Japan must focus on the risk of an inflation overshoot in guiding monetary policy, hawkish board member Hajime Takata said on Thursday, calling for gradual interest rate hikes. Takata, who proposed unsuccessfully to raise interest rates in January, repeated his view that Japan has already achieved the central bank39;s 2 inflation target with the economy having fully emerged from prolonged stagnation. The massive fiscal and monetary stimulus deployed across the world, coupled with the investment boom in artificial intelligence AI, could push up global growth and add to already growing inflationary pressure in Japan, he said. Medium and longterm inflation expectations are heightening, and price increases now have a greater tendency to generate secondround effects, Takata said in a speech to business leaders in Kyoto, western Japan. Corporate behaviour remains positive even after the BOJ39;s decision to hike rates in December, as deeply negative real borrowing costs spark lending across a wide range of sectors, Takata said. It is necessary to conduct further rate hikes in a gradual manner, with an eye on overseas developments and domestic financial conditions, he said. Such an approach would be better than raising rates based on a presumed neutral rate of... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/hawkish-boj-board-member-calls-for-focus-on-inflation-overshoot-risk-1772101331.html Thu, 26 Feb 2026 09:30:53 +0200