https://www.gurutrade.com/news/politics/rss/ An overview of the major political events and their influence on the global economy. Sun, 03 May 2026 05:14:13 +0300 50 en https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-officials-back-rate-hike-as-inflation-may-linger-1777626989.html ECB faces risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched Rate hike may be necessary as soon as June, says Nagel Markets now see three rate hikes FRANKFURT, May 1 Reuters The European Central Bank may need to tighten policy, perhaps as soon as June, policymakers said on Friday, warning that the inflation outlook is deteriorating and the risk is rising that high price growth gets entrenched. The ECB left interest rates unchanged on Thursday but debated hiking rates and signalled, in both on and offrecord comments, that higher rates would remain on the agenda as it fears an energyinduced inflation spike could persist beyond a oneoff impact. From todays perspective, the situation is evolving less favourably than in the earlier baseline scenario, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said. This makes it all the more appropriate for the Governing Council to respond in June if the outlook does not improve markedly. The ECB outlined a baseline, an adverse and a severe scenario for growth and inflation in March and even its most benign outlook assumed some policy tightening. Estonian central bank chief Madis Muller also warned on Friday that the ECB39;s 2 deposit rate may need to rise. We did not yet consider it necessary to raise interest rates this week, but it is increasingly likely that we will have to do so in the future, he said in a blog post. There are already signs that rising energy prices are being passed on to other products and services. The ECB can not lower... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-officials-back-rate-hike-as-inflation-may-linger-1777626989.html Fri, 01 May 2026 11:50:19 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/chile-s-central-bank-holds-rate-amid-mideast-war-risk-1777470070.html SANTIAGO, Reuters Chile39;s central bank on Tuesday held its benchmark interest rate at 4.5 in a unanimous decision, in line with expectations and marking its third consecutive decision to maintain the rate. In a statement, Chile39;s central bank said the prolongation of the war in the Middle East was worsening forecasts for global inflation and economic activity, and increasing risks that oil prices will remain high. Tuesday39;s decision follows two consecutive holds in January and March. Although oil price futures continue to point to a decline, the prolongation of the conflict has increased the risks that prices will remain high, the bank said, noting prices have settled above those envisioned in last month39;s monetary policy report. It also said the course of the war so far has been more adverse than the baseline scenario of last month39;s report, noting that the macroeconomic outlook remains subject to a higherthanusual degree of uncertainty. The central bank also pointed to higher copper prices. Chile is the world39;s top producer of the red metal, considered an economic bellwether due to its uses across many sectors. For March, Chile recorded inflation up 2.8 from a year earlier, pushed up by higher transport costs and amid a steep hike in fuel prices conducted by the new government of President Jose Antonio Kast. The measure, which seeks to bring domestic prices in line with surging international rates, hit Kast39;s popularity early in his term and... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/chile-s-central-bank-holds-rate-amid-mideast-war-risk-1777470070.html Wed, 29 Apr 2026 07:40:04 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bok-minutes-cautious-on-rates-amid-war-uncertainty-1777396484.html SEOUL, April 28 Reuters South Korea39;s monetary policy board said a cautious, waitandsee approach is appropriate for now as heightened uncertainty from the Iran war warrants more monitoring of its impact on growth and inflation, minutes from central bank39;s previous meeting showed on Tuesday. While the focus has been on financial stability until the beginning of the year, I believe we should shift our focus to alleviating inflationary pressure for the time being, one member said. The Bank of Korea39;s monetary policy board voted on April 10 to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50, a move anticipated by all 31 economists polled by Reuters. The hold reflects the bind the BOK finds itself in, with the economy caught between growth headwinds and an inflationary energy shock that could emerge to complicate any policy tightening ahead. Among 30 analysts polled, 26 expected no change to the benchmark rate through the end of this year. Three forecast the policy rate to rise to 2.75 by yearend, while one expected it to reach 3. Reporting by Cynthia Kim; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Jacqueline Wong Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bok-minutes-cautious-on-rates-amid-war-uncertainty-1777396484.html Tue, 28 Apr 2026 01:10:45 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boc-to-hold-rates-at-2-25-as-oil-shock-seen-short-lived-1777301081.html Economists say oil shock impact on inflation is temporary, no immediate rate hike needed Money markets expect possible rate hike later in year, diverging from economists39; forecasts BoC to update economic forecasts, focus on wage growth and fiscal policy response OTTAWA, April 27 Reuters The Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates on hold at 2.25 on Wednesday as the oil price shock from the Iran war is a temporary blip unlikely to have a lasting impact on inflation expectations, economists said. Central banks act if inflation expectations signal sustained price pressures. Economists say the rise in gasoline prices as a result of the Iran war may lift April inflation but higher prices are unlikely to last long enough to warrant action. Canada39;s annual inflation rate rose to 2.4 in March as higher crude oil costs drove up gasoline prices. While inflation rose to its highest since December, it remains around the midpoint of the BoC39;s 1 to 3 target range. At the same time, the economy, while avoiding a recession many feared from U.S. tariffs, has been weak. Governor Tiff Macklem said earlier this month he was not concerned about the nearterm spike in inflation expectations due to the war. Economists said that a policy move would be needed only if inflation, driven by higher gasoline costs, remained elevated. What the bank is looking for is whether these expectations of inflation become ingrained among consumers and among businesses, and right now, we are not... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boc-to-hold-rates-at-2-25-as-oil-shock-seen-short-lived-1777301081.html Mon, 27 Apr 2026 04:40:21 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boe-to-keep-rates-on-hold-while-it-gauges-impact-of-iran-war-1777277672.html oE expected to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday MPC seen voting 81 for no change, Reuters poll shows Governor Bailey has warned against bets on rate hikes BoE chief economist has challenged 39;wait and see39; plan Rate decision to be followed by press conference LONDON, April 27 Reuters The Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold this week and try to look ahead to the damage building up for Britain39;s economy from the Iran war, while investors will be watching for any signs it is moving towards raising rates. The BoE kept borrowing costs on hold in March as it waited to see the extent of the inflationary and growth hits from the conflict. With uncertainty still high, another nochange decision is expected on Thursday. But investors say rate hikes are likely later this year. On Friday, they fully priced a quarterpoint increase in July, another in September and a small chance of a third by yearend, despite Governor Andrew Bailey warning that such moves would be premature. Those bets will intensify on Thursday this week if some Monetary Policy Committee members decide the risks of another bout of high inflation with memories still fresh of how it surpassed 11 in 2022 merit a rate hike now. Economists polled by Reuters last week mostly expected an 81 vote by the MPC to keep Bank Rate at 3.75 this week after March39;s 90 vote. Unlike financial markets, they mostly do not foresee rate hikes this year. But some analysts said as many as three... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boe-to-keep-rates-on-hold-while-it-gauges-impact-of-iran-war-1777277672.html Mon, 27 Apr 2026 08:50:34 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/singapore-tightens-monetary-policy-iran-war-fuels-inflation-risks-1776162353.html MAS increases slightly the rate of appreciation of the SNEER policy band Warns of inflation, growth risks from Iran war Singapore Q1 flash GDP lower than expected, contracts 0.3 qq 2026 core and headline inflation outlooks revised higher Economists see possible further tightening if inflation persists SINGAPORE, April 14 Reuters Singapore39;s central bank tightened its monetary policy settings on Tuesday, flagging the risk that an Iran warfuelled energy shock could push up core inflation even as mounting pressure on growth was underscored by a firstquarter economic contraction. The Middle East conflict has upended global growth and inflation trajectories, throwing interestrate expectations into disarray. As a small tradedependent hub, Singapore is especially vulnerable to supplychain disruptions and volatile energy prices. The Monetary Authority of Singapore MAS said it would increase slightly the rate of appreciation of the SNEER policy band, in line with what most analysts polled by Reuters had expected. MAS said there would be no change to its width and the level at which it is centred. There are considerable risks around the outlook for inflation and growth, MAS said, adding that the Middle East situation is evolving and remains highly uncertain. GDP growth in the Singapore economy will slow over the course of this year, while the output gap should average around 0, the central bank said. Of the 13 analysts polled by Reuters ahead of the review, 11... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/singapore-tightens-monetary-policy-iran-war-fuels-inflation-risks-1776162353.html Tue, 14 Apr 2026 08:00:07 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korea-holds-rates-steady-as-iran-war-fans-inflation-growth-risks-1775816342.html BOK holds policy interest rate at 2.50 as expected BOK flags lower GDP expansion, higher price pressure for 2026 Governor Rhee to be replaced by incoming chief Shin Hyunsong SEOUL, April 10 Reuters South Korea39;s central bank kept its policy interest rate steady on Friday and warned of a highly uncertain path ahead as a broadening conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail growth and worsen inflation. The Bank of Korea flagged both the risk of a resurgent inflationary spiral fueled by crude prices and slower growth after the board voted to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50. All 31 economists polled by Reuters expected policy rates to remain on hold. If we look at the impact of supplyside shocks, it is much bigger for Asia especially Korea, Japan, and Taiwan and these shocks could widen, Governor Rhee Changyong said at a news conference in Seoul, his last before his term ends on April 20. Although we are responding to price risks by capping fuel prices, that is not a permanent measure, so inflation risks are growing should the Middle East situation drag on. In a statement, the BOK warned growth will likely fall short of its 2.0 February forecast, while headline inflation could exceed considerably the projected 2.2 for this year as rising oil prices and a weaker won drive up import costs. South Korea39;s policysensitive threeyear treasury bond futures erased early gains to fall as much as 0.14 points to 104.24 during the press conference.... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korea-holds-rates-steady-as-iran-war-fans-inflation-growth-risks-1775816342.html Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:30:02 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-cbank-holds-rates-as-mideast-crisis-clouds-growth-stokes-inflation-risks-1775634456.html RBI holds rates; monetary policy stance retained at neutral Rate panel to wait and watch for impact of Middle East crisis GDP growth seen at 6.9 in 202627; CPI inflation forecast at 4.6 To judiciously contain excessive volatility in rupee, central bank says MUMBAI, April 8 Reuters The Reserve Bank of India kept its key policy rate unchanged on Wednesday while warning of lower growth and higher inflation as the Middle East crisis reverses a Goldilocks phase for the South Asian economy. Overnight, the U.S and Iran announced a twoweek ceasefire in hostilities after more than a month of fighting, which pushed oil prices sharply higher and disrupted the supply of gas to economies the world over. India, which imports 90 of its oil supplies, is seen as among the most vulnerable if disruptions caused by the war stretch out. Reflecting that nervousness, the Indian rupee fell to a record low as foreign investors pulled nearly 19 billion between March and April so far. The central bank39;s rate panel, however, thought it is prudent to wait and watch the changing circumstances and the evolving growthinflation outlook, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said while announcing the policy decision. The RBI39;s sixmember monetary policy committee voted to keep the repo rate steady at 5.25. All six members of the rate panel, which includes three central bank officials and three external appointees, voted to hold rates. The MPC also decided to continue with its neutral stance.... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/india-cbank-holds-rates-as-mideast-crisis-clouds-growth-stokes-inflation-risks-1775634456.html Wed, 08 Apr 2026 10:00:19 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-to-maintain-appropriately-loose-monetary-policy-1774960808.html BEIJING, March 31 Reuters China39;s central bank pledged on Tuesday to maintain appropriately loose monetary policy, while noting growing impacts from changes in the external environment. China39;s economy is broadly stable but still faces challenges such as strong supply, weak demand and external shocks, the People39;s Bank of China said in the readout of its firstquarter monetary policy committee meeting. The central bank reiterated pledges for keeping liquidity ample, guiding a recovery in prices and keeping the yuan exchange rate basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels. Reporting by Beijing Newsroom; Editing by Bernadette Baum Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-to-maintain-appropriately-loose-monetary-policy-1774960808.html Tue, 31 Mar 2026 01:30:08 +0300 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-fixed-30-yr-mortgage-rate-hits-3-month-high-amid-iran-war-1773951790.html WASHINGTON, March 19 Reuters The average rate on the popular U.S. 30year fixedrate mortgage surged to a threemonth high this week as war in the Middle East stoked inflation fears, dealing a blow to the Trump administration39;s efforts to make housing more affordable. The 30year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.22, highest since early December, up from 6.11 last week, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac said on Thursday. Rising mortgage rates, if sustained, could hamper home sales during the typically busy spring season. The benchmark rate fell to 5.98 on the eve of the U.S.Israeli war with Iran after President Donald Trump ordered Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to expand purchases of mortgagebacked securities. It reversed course as the conflict drove up oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. Mortgage rates track the benchmark 10year Treasury yield. Housing affordability has become an increasingly potent political issue ahead of the November midterm elections. Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; editing by David Gaffen Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-fixed-30-yr-mortgage-rate-hits-3-month-high-amid-iran-war-1773951790.html Thu, 19 Mar 2026 06:40:17 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/swiss-national-bank-holds-rates-amid-iran-war-watches-franc-strength-1773922906.html Swiss franc this month hit highest vs euro since 2015 SNB zero rate is lowest among major central banks Swiss annual inflation running at only 0.1 2026 inflation forecast raised to 0.5 from 0.3 ZURICH, March 19 Reuters The Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate on hold on Thursday in the face of uncertainty over the Iran war, and signalled its increased readiness to intervene in currency markets to curb a recent surge in the Swiss franc fuelled by a flight to safety amid the global turmoil. The SNB maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0, the lowest among major central banks, as expected by a wide majority of analysts polled by Reuters. The decision came on a busy day for central banks, after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept rates unchanged, highlighting unusually high uncertainty as policymakers take stock of the impact of the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran. READY TO INTERVENE TO COUNTER FRANC39;S RISE Given the conflict in the Middle East, the SNB39;s willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased, said SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel, reiterating the message the central bank sent to markets earlier this month. We thereby counter a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability in Switzerland, he said. The franc weakened briefly after the decision, but soon recovered to trade a touch higher against the euro and dollar . It wasn39;t a surprise the SNB didn39;t change its... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/swiss-national-bank-holds-rates-amid-iran-war-watches-franc-strength-1773922906.html Thu, 19 Mar 2026 01:40:56 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/snb-monetary-policy-assessment-of-march-19-2026-1773923314.html ZURICH, March 19 Reuters The Swiss National Bank made the following statement after its policy review on Thursday The Swiss National Bank is leaving the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0. Banks sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold. The discount for sight deposits above this threshold still stands at 0.25 percentage points. Given the conflict in the Middle East, the SNBs willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased. The SNB thereby counters a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability in Switzerland. The conditional inflation forecast for the coming quarters is higher than in December due to the rise in energy prices. Mediumterm inflationary pressure, however, has remained virtually unchanged since the last monetary policy assessment. The monetary policy helps to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability and supports economic development. The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust its monetary policy if necessary, in order to ensure price stability over the medium term. As expected, inflation has risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, from 0.0 in November to 0.1 in February. This increase was driven in particular by higher goods inflation. With the rise in energy prices due to the escalation in the Middle East, inflation is likely to increase more strongly in the coming... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/snb-monetary-policy-assessment-of-march-19-2026-1773923314.html Thu, 19 Mar 2026 12:30:42 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boe-to-sit-tight-middle-east-conflict-turns-up-inflation-heat-1773925955.html BoE set to keep Bank Rate at 3.75 A cut had been expected before Middle East war Lack of clarity likely to make BoE guidance vague Announcement due at 1200 GMT, no press conference LONDON, March 19 Reuters The Bank of England on Thursday looks set to delay an interest rate cut that seemed a sure bet before the war in the Middle East, and it will probably sound vague about its next steps while it waits to see the extent of the inflationary shock. The BoE has cut borrowing costs more slowly than the European Central Bank since 2024 because of its worries about Britain39;s stubbornly stronger price pressures. Just when it looked like British inflation was going to drop to the BoE39;s target of 2 and stay there, the jump in oil and gas prices threatens to push it back up to 3 or higher. INVESTORS RETHINK THE OUTLOOK That is still a far cry from the peak of 11.1 in 2022 after Russia39;s fullscale invasion of Ukraine caused a much bigger spike in energy prices. But investors have ditched bets that the BoE would cut rates twice this year. On Wednesday, they were pricing the chance of a hike by November as a strong probability. Most economists think a pause in the BoE39;s run of rate cuts is more likely than a full Uturn by the Monetary Policy Committee given the fragile state of the UK economy. We see a high hurdle for hikes, James Moberly, senior UK economist at Goldman Sachs, said. Unlike in 2022, the starting point for monetary policy is restrictive and the MPC... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boe-to-sit-tight-middle-east-conflict-turns-up-inflation-heat-1773925955.html Thu, 19 Mar 2026 07:40:14 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/fed-likely-to-hold-rates-steady-iran-war-shocks-policy-debate-1773824116.html Fed faces inflation, growth dilemma amid Iran conflict US gasoline prices up more than 25 since war began Fed policymakers39; projections could lean towards stagflation WASHINGTON, March 18 Reuters Federal Reserve officials, convening in a wartime setting that began less than three weeks ago, are expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, but more significantly to outline in a new policy statement and projections how they feel President Donald Trump39;s decision to launch an openended conflict with Iran has recast the outlook for the U.S. economy, inflation and monetary policy. There are no sure bets, and without a clear stopping point to the U.S.Israeli bombing campaign, economists say the domestic and global impacts hinge on how long the war continues, on the structure of whatever Iranian government emerges at the end of it, and whether oil prices rise further beyond 100 a barrel or recede soon to their prewar levels below 80. The average price of gasoline in the U.S. was 3.79 per gallon as of Tuesday, more than 25 higher than before the war, according to data from motorist advocacy group AAA. A variety of other prices could rise in turn Airlines have begun warning of rising travel costs as the price of jet fuel surges, and a White House official said the U.S. was seeking other sources of agricultural fertilizers. As consumers cope with higher oilrelated prices, they may cancel purchases or try to scale back spending altogether, while U.S. trading... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/fed-likely-to-hold-rates-steady-iran-war-shocks-policy-debate-1773824116.html Wed, 18 Mar 2026 08:00:47 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/morocco-cb-expects-stable-inflation-as-holds-benchmark-rate-at-2-25-1773765277.html RABAT, March 17 Reuters Morocco39;s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25 on Tuesday, saying inflation would remain moderate this year despite heightened global economic uncertainties around conflict in the Gulf. The impact of war in the Middle East would remain relatively contained in the baseline scenario of a shortlived conflict, the central bank said. However, the repercussions could become more significant if it were to drag on or escalate, particularly through externalaccount pressures and higher energy prices, it added. Inflation is expected to remain stable at 0.8 in 2026, before picking up to 1.4 next year, the central bank said in a statement after its quarterly meeting. The central bank revised upwards its growth forecast in 2026 to 5.6, from 4.8 last year thanks to an improvement in farming output after abundant rainfall ended a sevenyear drought. The cereals harvest is seen growing to 8.2 million metric tons this year, the central bank said. Growth would slow to 3.5 next year, assuming an average harvest, it said. Morocco39;s current account deficit is expected to expand to 3.1 of GDP in 2026, from 2.3 last year, due to a surge in energy imports. Phosphate and fertiliser sales, remittances from Moroccans abroad, tourism and foreign direct investment would rise in 2026, it said. Morocco39;s foreign exchange reserves are seen growing to 482 billion dirhams 51.5 billion by 2027, enough to cover 5.5 months of import needs, the... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/morocco-cb-expects-stable-inflation-as-holds-benchmark-rate-at-2-25-1773765277.html Tue, 17 Mar 2026 04:30:35 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/indonesia-holds-rates-steady-signals-iran-war-limits-room-for-cuts-1773758762.html BI cites impact of Iran war reduces possibility of future rate cuts BI tightens currency transaction rules to support rupiah BI expects stable rupiah, maintains GDP growth forecast at 4.95.7 JAKARTA, March 17 Reuters Indonesia39;s central bank kept its key interest rates unchanged on Tuesday and signalled little room for rate cuts ahead given the impact of the war in the Middle East. Bank Indonesia held the benchmark 7day reverse repurchase rate at 4.75, as had been forecast by 24 of 26 economists polled by Reuters, and also held its overnight deposit and lending facility rates at 3.75 and 5.50, respectively. The impact of this Middle East war is indeed why we no longer convey the possibility of an interest rate cut in this statement, BI governor Perry Warjiyo said in an online press conference. We are likely to maintain the BI rate for now to strengthen FX intervention. BI also said some rules on currency transactions would be tightened from next month to support the rupiah . The currency has traded at record lows near 17,000 per dollar this month after a spike in crude prices caused by the war stoked inflation fears globally. It was unchanged at 16,980 per dollar after the BI announcement on interest rates. The currency was already under pressure amid investor concerns over fiscal management, central bank independence and governance of the country39;s stock market. The onhold decision underscores the central bank39;s focus on financial market stability, in... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/indonesia-holds-rates-steady-signals-iran-war-limits-room-for-cuts-1773758762.html Tue, 17 Mar 2026 01:30:42 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/hawkish-boj-board-member-calls-for-focus-on-inflation-overshoot-risk-1772101331.html BOJ must raise rates in gradual manner, Takata says Hard to predetermine desirable pace, degree of rate hikes BOJ must 39;take time and be prudent39; in bond taper KYOTO, Japan, Feb 26 Reuters The Bank of Japan must focus on the risk of an inflation overshoot in guiding monetary policy, hawkish board member Hajime Takata said on Thursday, calling for gradual interest rate hikes. Takata, who proposed unsuccessfully to raise interest rates in January, repeated his view that Japan has already achieved the central bank39;s 2 inflation target with the economy having fully emerged from prolonged stagnation. The massive fiscal and monetary stimulus deployed across the world, coupled with the investment boom in artificial intelligence AI, could push up global growth and add to already growing inflationary pressure in Japan, he said. Medium and longterm inflation expectations are heightening, and price increases now have a greater tendency to generate secondround effects, Takata said in a speech to business leaders in Kyoto, western Japan. Corporate behaviour remains positive even after the BOJ39;s decision to hike rates in December, as deeply negative real borrowing costs spark lending across a wide range of sectors, Takata said. It is necessary to conduct further rate hikes in a gradual manner, with an eye on overseas developments and domestic financial conditions, he said. Such an approach would be better than raising rates based on a presumed neutral rate of... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/hawkish-boj-board-member-calls-for-focus-on-inflation-overshoot-risk-1772101331.html Thu, 26 Feb 2026 09:30:53 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korea-cb-holds-rates-adopts-dot-plot-path-signalling-extended-pause-1772097846.html BOK keeps policy rate unchanged at 2.50 as expected BOK adopted Fed style dot plot charting rate path Dot plot signals rates on pause for next six months BOK raised South Korea39;s GDP forecast to 2.0 in 2026 SEOUL, Feb 26 Reuters South Korea39;s central bank stood pat on interest rates on Thursday and signalled policy would stay unchanged for the next six months as a chip boom in exports and steady inflation allow policymakers more time to assess financial stability risks. The won strengthened to the highest level against the dollar since October last year after the bank raised this year39;s growth forecast and introduced a new forwardguidance path on policy that reinforced market bets for a pause in rates until at least August this year. They are conditional views made at this point in time, and the interpretation is that there is only a small possibility of an increase or decrease for at least six months, Governor Rhee Changyong said in a press conference after the Bank of Korea voted to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50, as polled by Reuters. The central bank introduced the Federal Reserve39;s dot plot style chart for the first time on Thursday that shows where the policy interest rate would be in the next six months. Of the 21 dots, 16 were at 2.50. It also raised this year39;s GDP growth forecast to 2.0 from 1.8 previously, citing strongerthanexpected chip exports. Todays meeting provided no compelling evidence to alter our base case... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korea-cb-holds-rates-adopts-dot-plot-path-signalling-extended-pause-1772097846.html Thu, 26 Feb 2026 07:40:34 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/thai-cenbank-chief-aims-for-2026-growth-of-2-7-from-policy-mix-investments-1771949988.html BANGKOK, Feb 24 Reuters Thailand39;s central bank chief said on Tuesday that fiscal and monetary policy should be deployed in tandem to lift economic growth toward 2.7 this year, up from about 1.9 currently seen. Thailand39;s overall economic stability remained solid but growth was still too low, underscoring the need for a broader policy mix and additional investment to strengthen expansion, Governor Vitai Ratanakorn told a business seminar. He said government agencies were working to address structural issues that were holding back growth, adding shortterm stimulus measures would be necessary while longerrunning reforms take effect. The central bank had earlier forecast 2026 growth of 1.5 but Vitai said current expectations were an expansion of about 1.9. Vitai also said the Bank of Thailand plans steps to improve financing conditions for smaller firms, including measures to help small businesses access credit. It would introduce measures related to fees charged by financial institutions and would roll out rules on cash withdrawals and deposits next month, he added. The central bank will review policy rates on Wednesday, where it is expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.25 according to a Reuters poll. Reporting by Kitiphong Thaichareon, Orathai Sriring and Chayut Setboonsarng; Editing by Martin Petty Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/thai-cenbank-chief-aims-for-2026-growth-of-2-7-from-policy-mix-investments-1771949988.html Tue, 24 Feb 2026 12:00:39 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bank-indonesia-holds-rates-steady-focus-remains-on-undervalued-rupiah-1771519549.html Rupiah undervalued due to global factors, governor says Benchmark rate kept at 4.75, as expected BI to resume rate cutting cycle, governor says Cenbank, govt preparing growth narrative for investors, rating agencies, deputy gov says Rupiah has been trading near record low JAKARTA, Feb 19 Reuters Indonesia39;s central bank held rates unchanged for a fifth straight policy review on Thursday, as expected, with its focus remaining on the rupiah after turmoil in the country39;s financial markets amid weakening investor confidence. The rupiah slumped to a record low against the dollar last month as concerns mounted over central bank independence. The currency has remained close to that trough, putting it among the worstperforming emerging Asian currencies so far this year. Bank Indonesia BI considers the rupiah to be undervalued compared to Indonesia39;s economic fundamentals, Governor Perry Warjiyo said in an online press conference, adding the bank would step up currency intervention in markets on and offshore. Warjiyo blamed global market uncertainty for the weakness. Of course, if we look at exchange rate movements, there are two main factors ..., namely fundamental factors such as inflation indicators, economic growth, yields, and other indicators, all of which show that the rupiah should be more stable and tend to strengthen, Warjiyo said. The question, of course, is about technical factors, risk premium factors, especially those occurring globally, which do... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bank-indonesia-holds-rates-steady-focus-remains-on-undervalued-rupiah-1771519549.html Thu, 19 Feb 2026 11:50:48 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/hawkish-boj-policymaker-signals-rate-hike-chance-this-spring-1770996000.html Japan 39;very close39; to durably hitting price goal, Tamura says Interest rates still 39;considerably distant39; from neutral Prolonged easing causing problems such as excessive yen fall Remarks heighten chance of ratehike proposal in March or April TOKYO, Feb 13 Reuters Japan is very close to durably achieving the central bank39;s 2 inflation target, hawkish board member Naoki Tamura said on Friday, signaling the chance of an interest rate hike in coming months. Tamura also said current interest rates remain considerably distant from levels deemed neutral for the economy, suggesting that several more rate hikes could be foreseen before monetary policy begins to constrain growth. The underlying inflation rate has been gradually increasing and is very close to becoming embedded at 2, Tamura said in a speech. It39;s quite possible that by this spring, our 2 inflation target can be judged to have been achieved, he said, underscoring his preference for a nearterm interest rate hike. The remarks heighten the chance that Tamura will join another hawkish board member Hajime Takata, who unsuccessfully pushed for a rate hike in January, in calling for an increase in the BOJ39;s policy rate at upcoming meetings in March or April. The BOJ raised its policy rate to a 30year high of 0.75 in January. The central bank has signaled its readiness to keep pushing up borrowing costs if the underlying inflation rate, or price growth driven by domestic demand, makes progress in... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/hawkish-boj-policymaker-signals-rate-hike-chance-this-spring-1770996000.html Fri, 13 Feb 2026 08:20:07 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-keeps-rates-steady-shrugs-off-inflation-dip-1770322046.html FRANKFURT, Feb 5 Reuters The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged as expected on Thursday, shrugging off a dip in inflation while continuing to warn about an uncertain geopolitical environment. The ECB left the rate it pays on bank deposits at 2, where it has been since June, and reaffirmed that it expects inflation to stabilise at its goal, which is also 2. The ECB39;s updated assessment reconfirms that inflation should stabilise at its 2 target in the medium term, the euro zone39;s central bank said in a press release. The ECB said the economy remained resilient in a challenging global environment, highlighting low unemployment, solid private sector balance sheets and the gradual rollout of public spending on defence and infrastructure. But it repeated its longstanding warning about an uncertain outlook, owing particularly to ongoing global trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Price growth in the 21 countries that share the euro slipped to 1.7 last month, its lowest level since September 2024, and is expected to stay slightly below the ECB39;s target for at least a year. The euro zone economy has nevertheless been picking up pace, with consumption and investments kicking into higher gear in the last three months of 2025. But last week39;s tumble in the U.S. dollar, volatility in commodity markets, the Trump administration39;s war of words over Greenland and its pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates, are all reminders that... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-keeps-rates-steady-shrugs-off-inflation-dip-1770322046.html Thu, 05 Feb 2026 03:20:59 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boe-holds-rates-at-3-75-in-surprisingly-close-vote-1770320212.html LONDON, Feb 5 Reuters The Bank of England left interest rates on hold at 3.75 in a surprisingly close 54 split vote, with Governor Andrew Bailey and external policymaker Catherine Mann saying they could join those pushing to cut borrowing costs at some point. Below are key excerpts from the individual comments from members of the Monetary Policy Committee in minutes for this month39;s decision. VOTED TO MAINTAIN BANK RATE AT 3.75 GOVERNOR ANDREW BAILEY Overall the risks from inflation persistence appear to have continued to reduce. I therefore see scope for some further easing of policy. This does not mean I expect to cut Bank Rate at any particular meeting. I will go into the coming meetings asking whether a cut is justified. DEPUTY GOVERNOR CLARE LOMBARDELLI Overall the data continue broadly to show strength in wages and underlying inflation, weak activity and softening employment. I am more concerned about the costs of cutting rates too quickly than too slowly, including the risks to credibility from any potential policy reversal that is not in response to a new shock. CHIEF ECONOMIST HUW PILL I remain concerned that inflationary pressures stemming from an overly rapid withdrawal of policy restriction over the past two years still need to be contained and eliminated. In that light, I continue to favour a cautious withdrawal of policy restriction, guided by longerterm trends rather than shortterm news. EXTERNAL MPC MEMBER MEGAN GREENE I continue to... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boe-holds-rates-at-3-75-in-surprisingly-close-vote-1770320212.html Thu, 05 Feb 2026 02:10:18 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/australia-reverses-course-with-rate-hike-markets-bet-on-more-1770109289.html Rates raised by 25 bps, first hike in two years RBA warns that inflation likely to stay above target for some time Markets ramp up bets for followup hike in May Australian dollar rallies, bond yields jump SYDNEY, Feb 3 Reuters Australia39;s central bank was forced to reverse course and raise interest rates on Tuesday as it struggles to bring inflation under control in a supplyconstrained economy, leaving markets wagering further hikes would be needed this year. The Reserve Bank of Australia now joins the Bank of Japan as the only other developedworld central bank tightening policy at the moment. Markets are still priced for rate cuts in the U.S., UK and Canada, while the European Central Bank is widely expected to be on an extended pause. Wrapping up the February policy meeting, the RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85 in a unanimous decision, delivering the first hike in two years and coming just six months after its last cut in August. The central bank added it was uncertain whether financial conditions were restrictive. However, Governor Michele Bullock would not be drawn on the prospects of more rate rises even though the RBA39;s new economic forecasts were based on more policy tightening to bring inflation back to the target band of 2 to 3. I don39;t know if it39;s in a tightening cycle. Certainly it is an adjustment, and the board would be actively monitoring data, said Bullock at a postdecision briefing. We are in a position where we... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/australia-reverses-course-with-rate-hike-markets-bet-on-more-1770109289.html Tue, 03 Feb 2026 07:40:12 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boc-holds-rates-says-threat-to-fed-independence-adds-to-uncertainty-1769627470.html Bank of Canada cites trade uncertainty as big risk this year Maintained its forecast for modest growth in 2026 and 2027 Governor says inflation to hover around 2 for next two years Macklem says Jerome Powell doing a good job leading the Fed OTTAWA, Jan 28 Reuters The Bank of Canada on Wednesday held its policy rate at 2.25, as widely expected, and Governor Tiff Macklem said a high level of trade uncertainty made it difficult to predict when and how rates might next change. Macklem said the threat of the U.S. Federal Reserve losing its independence contributed to uncertainty. U.S. President Donald Trump39;s administration opened a criminal investigation of U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell and Trump has demanded he cut rates. In a quarterly monetary policy report, Canada39;s central bank maintained its forecast for modest growth in 2026 and 2027 and said inflation would hover around the 2 target. Wednesday39;s decision was the second rate hold in a row. Businesses will take time to adjust to the effect of U.S. tariffs, it said, noting that hiring intentions remain soft. While Council judges the current policy rate is appropriate based on our outlook, the consensus was that elevated uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the timing or direction of the next change in the policy rate, Macklem said in his opening remarks after the rate announcement. Economists and markets are divided on where monetary policy is headed this year. Many economists expect there... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boc-holds-rates-says-threat-to-fed-independence-adds-to-uncertainty-1769627470.html Wed, 28 Jan 2026 07:00:45 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/weak-yen-labour-crunch-key-to-boj-rate-hike-timing-minutes-show-1769603293.html Inflation becoming more entrenched, some members say BOJ must take into account yen impact on underlying inflation One member blamed weak yen, yield rise to toolow policy rate BOJ raised rates in December, agreed on need for more hikes TOKYO, Jan 28 Reuters The Bank of Japan considered mounting inflationary pressures stemming from a weak yen and labour shortages, among other factors, as key influences for the timing of additional interest rate hikes, minutes from a December meeting showed on Wednesday. The discussions reflected the board39;s readiness to continue raising stilllow borrowing costs even after its decision in December to raise the policy rate to a 30year high of 0.75. The ninemember board agreed that subsequent rate hikes would depend on economic conditions and inflation forecasts materialising, the minutes showed. While some members preferred treading cautiously on future rate hikes, others said inflation was becoming more entrenched and persistent as companies pass on wage increases alongside raw material costs, according to the minutes. A weak yen adds to inflationary pressure by pushing up import costs at a time when more businesses were actively raising wages and prices, some members said. Although addressing currency market moves is not itself the purpose of monetary policy, the BOJ should give consideration to the impact of the yen39;s slide on inflation rates, and in some cases, underlying inflation, in deciding whether to raise the policy... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/weak-yen-labour-crunch-key-to-boj-rate-hike-timing-minutes-show-1769603293.html Wed, 28 Jan 2026 08:00:49 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boc-to-keep-rates-on-hold-on-wednesday-future-monetary-policy-to-depend-on-us-trade-negotiations-1769427078.html BoC had indicated in October rates are at about the right level Economists say upcoming USMCA renegotiation major uncertainty A Reuters poll shows majority expect rates on hold through 2026 OTTAWA, Jan 26 Reuters The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep its policy interest rate on hold at 2.25 on Wednesday but economists and money markets are divided over where Canada39;s monetary policy cycle is headed for the rest of the year due to economic uncertainty. From December, money markets have started betting on odds of a rate hike late this year after a long pause for most of the year. But some economists differ given the uncertainty around the upcoming renegotiations of the United StatesMexicoCanada USMCA free trade pact. The central bank had indicated in October after cutting rates by 25 basis points that the benchmark rate was about the right level as inflation continued to be within its target range. It had also admitted that it did not have the tools to tackle the structural impacts to the economy unleashed by the U.S. tariffs and the related uncertainty. A Reuters poll of economists showed on Friday that nearly 75 of the 35 economists polled forecast the central bank will keep rates steady through 2026, a larger majority than the just over 60 who expected that outcome in December. Money markets are pricing policy to remain on hold or tilt slightly toward easing through mid2026, before turning to modest tightening expectations in the final quarter of 2026.... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boc-to-keep-rates-on-hold-on-wednesday-future-monetary-policy-to-depend-on-us-trade-negotiations-1769427078.html Mon, 26 Jan 2026 01:10:52 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-rate-check-masks-stiff-hurdle-to-coordinated-yen-intervention-1769424270.html U.S. rate check signals Tokyo, Washington action possible but not imminent Threshold high for direct solo, joint intervention, analysts say U.S. has own reasons to avoid joint action Japan would need to sell US Treasuries to intervene TOKYO, Jan 26 Reuters The unusual rate check by the New York Federal Reserve that triggered a spike in the stubbornly weak yen has lowered the threshold for intervention, but coordinated JapanU.S. selling of dollars still looks highly unlikely at this stage. The Fed39;s action late on Friday was the strongest signal to date that Japanese and U.S. authorities were working closely together to stem the currency39;s decline, keeping markets on high alert for intervention. Yet, direct coordinated intervention may not happen as quickly as markets may be expecting, analysts say, partly due to domestic considerations in the U.S. suggesting Washington39;s support for Japan39;s concerns over an excessively weak yen is likely to extend only to rate checks for now. Past coordinated intervention came in very rare circumstances such as during a financial crisis or a big natural disaster, said Junya Tanase, chief Japan currency strategist at JP Morgan. We think the distance between joint rate checks to coordinated intervention is quite big. For now, fears of intervention alone have pushed the yen off 18month lows, offering some relief to Japanese policymakers fretting about the inflationary impact of the currency39;s declines. To be sure, the... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-rate-check-masks-stiff-hurdle-to-coordinated-yen-intervention-1769424270.html Mon, 26 Jan 2026 10:40:55 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/eu-to-suspend-93b-euro-retaliatory-trade-package-against-us-for-6-mths-1769254766.html BRUSSELS, Jan 23 Reuters The European Commission said on Friday it would propose suspending for another six months an EU package of retaliatory trade measures against the U.S. worth 93 billion euros 109.19 billion that would otherwise kick in on February 7. The package, prepared in the first half of last year when the European Union was negotiating a trade deal with the United States, was put on hold for six months when Brussels and Washington agreed on a joint statement on trade in August 2025. U.S. President Donald Trump39;s threat last week to impose new tariffs on eight European countries over Washington39;s push to acquire Greenland had made the retaliatory package a handy tool for the EU to use had Trump followed through on his threat. With the removal of the tariff threat by the U.S. we can now return to the important business of implementing the joint EUUS statement, Commission spokesman Olof Gill said. The Commission will soon make a proposal to roll over our suspended countermeasures, which are set to expire on February 7, Gill said, adding the measures would be suspended for a further six months. Just to make absolutely clear the measures would remain suspended, but if we need them at any point in the future, they can be unsuspended, Gill said. 1 0.8517 euros Reporting by Jan Strupczewski Editing by Gareth Jones Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/eu-to-suspend-93b-euro-retaliatory-trade-package-against-us-for-6-mths-1769254766.html Fri, 23 Jan 2026 03:20:48 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boj-stands-pat-primes-market-for-more-hikes-with-hawkish-inflation-signals-1769162345.html BOJ keeps key policy rate steady at 0.75 as widely expected Board revises up growth forecasts for fiscal 2025, 2026 Board sees risks to growth, inflation roughly balanced Hawkish member Takata proposes rate hike, turned down by board TOKYO, Jan 23 Reuters The Bank of Japan retained its hawkish inflation forecasts on Friday after keeping policy steady, signalling its conviction that a moderate economic recovery justifies raising stilllow borrowing costs further in a politically charged atmosphere. In a sign of its caution over the inflationary effects of a weak yen, the central bank said the currency39;s moves could prod firms to pass on rising import costs and push up underlying consumer prices a key gauge determining its ratehike timing. Board member Hajime Takata also proposed raising rates for the second straight meeting, which found no other voices in support but highlighted the hawkish momentum within the central bank. We will continue to raise interest rates if our economic and price forecasts materialise. As for our ratehike path and pace, that will depend on economic, price and financial developments at the time, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told a press conference. We will carefully look at available data at each policy meeting, and update our view on economic and price developments, risks and the likelihood of achieving our forecasts, he said. At a twoday meeting that ended on Friday, the BOJ maintained its key policy rate at 0.75 in a widely expected... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boj-stands-pat-primes-market-for-more-hikes-with-hawkish-inflation-signals-1769162345.html Fri, 23 Jan 2026 09:30:12 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/indonesia-cenbank-keeps-rates-unchanged-amid-rupiah-weakness-1768995376.html JAKARTA, Jan 21 Reuters Indonesia39;s central bank held its key policy rates steady on Wednesday, as expected, saying the level was supportive of economic expansion while remaining consistent with its goal to anchor the rupiah, which hit a record low a day earlier. Bank Indonesia BI kept the benchmark 7day reverse repurchase rate at 4.75, where it has been since September, as unanimously anticipated by 26 economists surveyed by Reuters. The bank also left unchanged its overnight deposit facility and lending facility rates at 3.75 and 5.50, respectively. BI cut interest rates by a total of 150 basis points between September 2024 to September 2025. Reporting by Gayatri Suroyo, Stefanno Sulaiman and Fransiska Nangoy; Editing by David Stanway Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/indonesia-cenbank-keeps-rates-unchanged-amid-rupiah-weakness-1768995376.html Wed, 21 Jan 2026 09:40:39 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/london-stocks-dip-oil-drags-defence-index-hits-record-high-1767882625.html FTSE 100 down 0.3, FTSE 250 down 0.4 Defence stocks hit record high amid geopolitical tensions House prices rise 0.3 annually, slowest since March 2024 Jan 8 Reuters London39;s FTSE 100 edged lower on Thursday, pressured by weakness in oil stocks, even as defence shares surged to a record high on rising military budgets and geopolitical tensions. The bluechip FTSE 100 slipped 0.3 by 1040 GMT and the domestically focused midcap index was 0.4 lower. Shell dropped 2.6 after the oil major narrowed its projected range for fourthquarter liquefied natural gas production, as it warned of a loss in its chemicals business. Rival BP was down 0.6. Oversupply concerns, with forecasts of a large surplus in early 2026 have stirred concern for the energy sector, even as oil prices inched higher on the day. Defence stocks, on the other hand, rose to a record high, joining a rally in shares of European and U.S. peers, after President Donald Trump called for higher U.S. defence spending. BAE systems gained 6.1, while Chemring and Avon Technologies were up about 1 each. U.S. strikes on Venezuela have charged up geopolitical concerns, lifting defence shares earlier this week. Meanwhile, British house prices rose by a slowerthanexpected 0.3 in the 12 months to December, the weakest annual increase since March 2024, as economic and tax uncertainty overshadowed the market at the end of the year, mortgage lender Halifax said. Among individual stocks, Associated British foods slumped... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/london-stocks-dip-oil-drags-defence-index-hits-record-high-1767882625.html Thu, 08 Jan 2026 01:10:30 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bank-of-japan-chief-vows-to-keep-raising-interest-rates-1767613055.html TOKYO, Jan 5 Reuters Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with its forecasts. Japan39;s economy sustained a moderate recovery last year despite the hit to corporate profits from higher U.S. tariffs, Ueda said in a speech delivered to the country39;s banking sector lobby. Wages and prices are highly likely to rise together moderately, Ueda said, adding that adjusting the degree of monetary support will help the economy achieve sustained growth. The BOJ raised its policy rate to a 30year high of 0.75 from 0.5 last month, taking another landmark step in ending decades of huge monetary support and nearzero borrowing costs. Despite the move, Japan39;s real borrowing costs remain deeply negative with consumer inflation exceeding the BOJ39;s 2 target for nearly four years. Markets are focusing on the BOJ39;s quarterly outlook report due at its policy meeting on January 2223, for clues on how the board views the inflationary impact from recent yen falls. The yen39;s weakness has pushed up import costs and broader inflation, prompting some board members to call for further, steady rate hikes. The dollar rose 0.2 to 157.08 yen on Monday after reaching 157.255 for the first time since December 22. Market expectations of further BOJ rate hikes have pushed up yields with those on the benchmark 10year Japanese government bond JGB briefly hitting a 27year high of... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bank-of-japan-chief-vows-to-keep-raising-interest-rates-1767613055.html Mon, 05 Jan 2026 09:10:29 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boj-debated-need-to-keep-raising-rates-oct-meeting-minutes-show-1766571539.html TOKYO, Dec 24 Reuters Bank of Japan policymakers debated the need to continue raising interest rates to levels deemed neutral to the economy with some arguing doing so would help achieve longterm, stable growth, minutes of their October meeting showed on Wednesday. A few in the ninemember board also said recent yen declines could lead to an overshoot in inflation by pushing up import costs, the minutes showed. Some members said given the neutral interest rate was higher than the current policy interest rate, adjusting the degree of monetary accommodation in accordance with improvement in economic activity and prices would help achieve economic and price stability in the long run, the minutes showed. At the October 2930 meeting, the BOJ kept interest rates steady at 0.5 but Governor Kazuo Ueda sent a strong signal on the chance of a nearterm rate hike. Hawkish members Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura dissented, and proposed unsuccessfully to hike rates to 0.75. At the subsequent meeting in December, the central bank raised rates to 0.75, a level unseen in 30 years. The October minutes showed many members already seeing conditions ripe for a rate hike, but wanting a bit more clarity on whether companies would keep hiking pay next year amid lingering uncertainty over the impact of higher U.S. tariffs. One member also pointed to uncertainty over the policy direction of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi39;s new administration as a reason to stand pat, the minutes showed.... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boj-debated-need-to-keep-raising-rates-oct-meeting-minutes-show-1766571539.html Wed, 24 Dec 2025 07:30:12 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/lng-tanker-kunpeng-loads-cargo-from-russian-plant-under-sanctions-1766416736.html SINGAPORE, Dec 22 Reuters A liquefied natural gas tanker has loaded a cargo from Russia39;s Portovaya LNG plant that is under Western sanctions over Moscow39;s war in Ukraine, shiptracking data showed. The Kunpeng arrived at the Portovaya LNG terminal, was unloaded on December 18 and departed with a cargo on December 21, according to shiptracking data from analytics firm Kpler. LSEG data also shows the tanker arriving and leaving the terminal on the same dates. This is the first time that the Kunpeng, which is not under sanctions, has picked up an LNG cargo from a designated project. Until last year, the Kunpeng mostly delivered LNG to South Korea from Qatar and Australia, Kpler data showed. Shipping database Equasis lists the tanker39;s registered owner and its ship or commercial manager as Reveka Marine Ltd, with a registered address in the Marshall Islands. Reuters could not find contact information for Reveka Marine Ltd. Washington placed sanctions on two Russian LNG terminals, including Portovaya, at the start of this year. Its annual export volumes were already low at less than 2 million metric tons per year, shipping mostly to Europe and Turkey and the number of loadings decreased following the sanctions. It nevertheless shipped five cargoes domestically to Kaliningrad, Russia. One cargo, however, was delivered to a tanker in Southeast Asian waters in October, making it the first known shiptoship transfer of Russian LNG subject to sanctions. Another LNG... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/lng-tanker-kunpeng-loads-cargo-from-russian-plant-under-sanctions-1766416736.html Mon, 22 Dec 2025 12:50:58 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-set-to-keep-rates-steady-for-7th-mth-despite-slowing-economy-1766148564.html SHANGHAI, Dec 19 Reuters China is expected to leave benchmark lending rates unchanged for a seventh consecutive month in December, a Reuters survey showed, despite a depressed economy and deepening woes in the property sector. Analysts say China39;s central bank is not in a hurry to loosen monetary policy as the economy is on track to meet this year39;s growth target and banks are grappling with recordlow margins, but fresh interest rate cuts are likely in early 2026. All 25 respondents in a Reuters survey this week said they expected the oneyear and fiveyear loan prime rates LPRs to remain steady on Monday at 3.0 and 3.5, respectively. The consensus comes after the People39;s Bank of China this month kept its sevenday reverse repo rate unchanged at 1.4. The key policy rate underpins LPRs. China39;s economy stalled in November, with factory output and retail sales growth slowing as a lingering property crisis hit consumer and business sentiment. Although China39;s trade surplus topped 1 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, exporters face a challenging 2026 amid heightened trade tensions. A bank trader in Shanghai said further cuts in lending rates would squeeze banks39; net interest margins, which are already at a record low of 1.42. A cut in LPR now would mean a reduction in mortgage rates at the start of next year, which would make life more difficult for banks, said the banker, who declined to be named. Moreover, policymakers are in no hurry to cut rates... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-set-to-keep-rates-steady-for-7th-mth-despite-slowing-economy-1766148564.html Fri, 19 Dec 2025 10:40:19 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-keeps-rates-steady-nudges-up-growth-forecast-1766095732.html FRANKFURT, Dec 18 Reuters The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged as expected on Thursday and raised some of its growth and inflation projections, likely solidifying investor bets that no further rate cuts are coming. The ECB has been on hold since pausing a yearlong ratecutting spree in June and the euro zone39;s unexpected resilience to global trade strife has gradually taken pressure off the bank to provide more support. While the bank kept an option to cut on the table, markets see that as a formality and investors are starting to price in a hike for 2027, even as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England continue to lower borrowing costs. Economic growth is expected to be stronger than in the September projections, driven especially by domestic demand, the ECB said in a statement. The Governing Council is not precommitting to a particular rate path. Supporting the hold narrative, the ECB predicted that inflation would stay around its 2 target for years to come, even if price growth could dip temporarily next year. The ECB now sees inflation at 1.9 in 2026, above its previous projection for 1.7 while 2027 inflation is projected at 1.8, below the 1.9 seen in September. The bank39;s initial projection for 2028 put price growth at 2.0 at the end of the projection. Forecasts for growth, now clearly on a higher path than earlier projected, were also lifted, to 1.4 this year, above the 1.2 projected three months ago. Growth is then seen... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/ecb-keeps-rates-steady-nudges-up-growth-forecast-1766095732.html Thu, 18 Dec 2025 03:20:45 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bank-of-england-cuts-rates-in-tight-vote-sterling-rises-1766088206.html LONDON, Dec 18 Reuters The Bank of England cut interest rates on Thursday after a narrow vote by policymakers, but it signalled that the already gradual pace of lowering borrowing costs might slow further. The pound jumped as much as 0.16 to a session high of 1.34 immediately after the decision, while twoyear gilt yields , the most sensitive to shifts in expectations for British monetary policy, rose by as much as 5.4 basis points to a session high of 3.771. UK retreated from the day39;s highs, leaving both the bluechip FTSE 100 and the midcap FTSE 250 flat. COMMENTS GEORGE VESSEY, LEAD FX MACRO STRATEGIST, CONVERA, LONDON We had warned that the bigger risk was not the cut itself, but that a narrow split would disappoint doves and leave scope for sterling to strengthen. With pessimism already embedded in GBP, stretched short positioning and sterlings stillattractive carry profile, the setup was ripe for markets to be caught off guard and todays postdecision rally in the pound reflects exactly that dynamic. Bottom line The cut was no surprise, but markets latched onto signs of a resilient hawkish contingent on the MPC, which has kept GBP buoyant, highlighting that the bigger story lies in positioning and market expectations rather than the headline decision. KENNETH BROUX, HEAD OF CORPORATE RESEARCH, FX AND RATES, SOCIETE GENERALE, LONDON There was a bit of speculation that it could be a bigger majority for a cut after the CPI late yesterday, which was below... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bank-of-england-cuts-rates-in-tight-vote-sterling-rises-1766088206.html Thu, 18 Dec 2025 02:50:15 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boe-cuts-rates-after-tight-vote-but-signals-caution-over-further-moves-1766096288.html BoE cuts benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 Central bank says future decisions will be closer calls BoE39;s Bailey expects inflation back near 2 by May 2026 Sterling rises, gilt yields increase after BoE decision Economists see limited rate cuts in 2026 as economy weakens LONDON, Dec 18 Reuters The Bank of England cut interest rates on Thursday after a narrow vote by policymakers but it signalled that the already gradual pace of lowering borrowing costs might slow further. After a big drop in inflation and a new forecast from BoE staff that the economy is stagnating, five Monetary Policy Committee members voted to lower the BoE39;s benchmark rate for the sixth time since August 2024 to 3.75 from 4. The four other members supported no change as they worried about the potential for inflation still the highest among the Group of Seven economies to remain too high. Analysts polled by Reuters last week had mostly expected a 54 vote for a rate reduction as Britain39;s economy struggles to grow and inflation falls. Governor Andrew Bailey changed his view and voted for a cut as he sees inflation returning close to the BoE39;s 2 target as soon as April or May next year, about a year earlier than forecast by the central bank just last month. But he cautioned that inflation still posed some risks. The calls will become closer, and I would expect the pace of cuts, therefore, to ease off at some point, he told broadcasters. But I39;m not going to judge exactly... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boe-cuts-rates-after-tight-vote-but-signals-caution-over-further-moves-1766096288.html Thu, 18 Dec 2025 11:50:46 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-confirms-tariff-elements-of-trade-deal-with-switzerland-1766055650.html WASHINGTON, Dec 17 Reuters The U.S. Trade Representative on Wednesday announced the implementation of tariffrelated elements in a trade agreement framework reached with Switzerland and Liechtenstein in November. The tariff rates announced on November 14 will be retroactive to that date, according to a post in the Federal Register. The notice amends the U.S. tariff schedule to apply either the mostfavorednation tariff rate or a 15 rate, whichever is higher, to goods from the two countries. It also adjusts tariffs on certain products including some agricultural goods, unavailable natural resources, aircraft and aircraft parts, and generic pharmaceuticals and their ingredients and chemical precursors, the notice said. The United States agreed to these modifications with the expectation that the trade agreement will be finalized by March 31. If that does not occur, the U.S. will review and consider the tariff rate modifications, the notice said. The framework trade agreement announced by the United States and Switzerland last month included Washington slashing its tariffs on imported Swiss products to 15 from 39 and a pledge by Swiss companies to invest 200 billion in the U.S. by the end of 2028. Reporting by Susan Heavey and Doina Chiacu; Editing by Andrew Heavens, Aidan Lewis Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-confirms-tariff-elements-of-trade-deal-with-switzerland-1766055650.html Wed, 17 Dec 2025 04:40:35 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bi-keeps-rates-steady-focuses-on-rupiah-stability-1766135544.html Benchmark rate kept at 4.75, where it has been since September BI has cut rates by 150 bps since 2024 Warjiyo says there remains room for further rate cuts JAKARTA, Dec 17 Reuters Indonesia39;s central bank held its policy rates unchanged for a third straight meeting on Wednesday, maintaining its focus on supporting the rupiah currency while it makes efforts to strengthen the impact of its earlier easings. Bank Indonesia kept the benchmark 7day reverse repurchase rate at 4.75, as expected by 18 of 31 economists polled by Reuters. The rest had predicted BI would resume its ratecut cycle. The bank also left unchanged its other main policy rates. BI had slashed its main rates by a total of 150 bps between September 2024 and September 2025 as it looked to stimulate growth in Southeast Asia39;s biggest economy. Central bank Governor Perry Warjiyo said the decision was in line with efforts to maintain the stability of the rupiah as global market uncertainties remained high. The central bank has room for further policy easing given the low inflation outlook in 2026 and the need to boost economic growth, he said. We will evaluate the magnitude of the easing and its timing from month to month through assessments of inflation, economic growth, exchange rate stability, and other monetary conditions, he said. Warjiyo said BI will also continue to expand liquidity in the financial markets, aiming to keep the base money supply growth in the double digits. BI has forecast... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bi-keeps-rates-steady-focuses-on-rupiah-stability-1766135544.html Wed, 17 Dec 2025 01:30:55 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/indonesia-expects-to-wrap-up-u-s-tariff-talks-by-year-end-1765560378.html JAKARTA, Dec 12 Reuters Indonesia expects to complete tariff talks with the United States by the end of the year, its chief negotiator said on Friday, with a delegation set to visit Washington next week to resume them. Talks had appeared at risk of collapse this week after the United States accused Jakarta of backtracking on prior commitments, although Indonesia said their dynamics were normal and it was just a matter of harmonising the language. The timeline for conclusion of talks followed a video call on Thursday between senior economic minister Airlangga Hartarto and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on the tariffs. We agree to complete what has been agreed upon in the leaders39; declaration on July 22, Airlangga told an economic forum, adding that a nondisclosure pact kept him from giving details. Asked if the United States had sought inclusion of a requirement for Indonesia to inform it of future trade deals with other countries, Airlangga said, It is an agreement that is not with Indonesia. It was not immediately clear if Indonesia was open to such a clause, however. Such a provision in the U.S. deal struck with Malaysia allows the United States to end the pact and restore the tariff President Donald Trump announced in April, if new deals endanger key U.S. interests and talks fail to resolve its concerns. Cambodia also has a similar clause in its U.S. deal agreed in October, with some difference in the wording. A U.S. tariff deal is key to ensure... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/indonesia-expects-to-wrap-up-u-s-tariff-talks-by-year-end-1765560378.html Fri, 12 Dec 2025 08:20:36 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/hong-kong-cuts-interest-rate-major-banks-keep-lending-rates-steady-1765449997.html HONG KONG, Dec 11 Reuters Hong Kong39;s defacto central bank lowered on Thursday its base interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0, in line with a cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, but major lenders declined to pass on the reduction to customers. Hong Kong39;s monetary policy moves in lockstep with the United States as the city39;s currency is pegged to the greenback in a tight range of 7.757.85 per dollar. It was the third easing by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority HKMA this year and followed a similar cut late in October. After the cut announced on Thursday, HSBC and Bank of China Hong Kong said they would maintain their best lending rates in Hong Kong at 5. Standard Chartered Bank said it would keep its Hong Kong dollar best lending rate unchanged at 5.25. All three lenders kept their savings rates unchanged. The banks did not provide reasons, but HKMA CEO Eddie Yue told reporters that lenders would take into consideration factors including interbank rates and the cost of capital when making decisions on interest rates. Many banks had mentioned in their rate cut last time that the current savings rates are getting close to zero, Yue said. The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point in a widely expected move, but indicated it would likely pause its easing cycle at the next policy meeting in January. An interest rate cut always has a positive impact on the economy and housing market, Yue said. However, the pace of... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/hong-kong-cuts-interest-rate-major-banks-keep-lending-rates-steady-1765449997.html Thu, 11 Dec 2025 09:10:31 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korea-plans-to-relax-rules-on-banking-and-commerce-to-spur-investment-1765450850.html SEOUL, Dec 11 Reuters South Korea plans to relax rules on the separation of banking and commerce in a bid to spur investment, Finance Minister Koo Yuncheol said on Thursday, even as civic groups raise concerns that the move could only benefit big familyrun conglomerates. We won39;t interfere with the idea that currently bans industrial powers from controlling banking. But instead, the idea is to ease financial regulations to allow largescale investments, Koo said, answering questions from President Lee Jae Myung during a televised policy meeting. Under the revised rules, holding companies may be allowed to have some control over financial units to allow financing in leadingedge technology. Koo also said the ministry planned to create a new sovereign wealth fund to better manage state revenue, but did not elaborate on the plan. Reporting by Heejin Kim, Cynthia Kim Editing by Ed Davies Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-korea-plans-to-relax-rules-on-banking-and-commerce-to-spur-investment-1765450850.html Thu, 11 Dec 2025 07:40:58 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boc-holds-rates-says-economy-looks-better-than-expected-despite-tariffs-1765387427.html The Bank of Canada holds rates steady at 2.25 as expected Macklem says economy was proving more resilient to tariffs Macklem reiterates policy rate at about the right level U.S. Federal Reserve likely to announce rate cut on Wednesday OTTAWA, Dec 10 Reuters The Bank of Canada held its key policy rate steady at 2.25 on Wednesday as widely expected, and Governor Tiff Macklem said the economy was proving resilient overall to the effect of U.S. trade measures. Despite tariffs between 25 and 50 on some critical sectors such as cars, lumber, aluminum and steel, Canada39;s economy has shown signs of strength. Third quarter annualized GDP grew by 2.6, much more than expected, while employment data showed the economy added 181,000 new jobs between September and November. It39;s been a difficult year for Canadians and Canadian businesses. But as the year is closing, it39;s looking better than it looked in the spring, in the summer, Macklem said during a press conference after the rates decision. Macklem said the impact of tariffs has not totally spilled over into the broader economy. Uncertainty remains high and if the outlook changes, the bank is ready to respond, Macklem said, reiterating comments he made when the bank cut rates in October to their current level. Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2 while helping the economy, said Macklem. The U.S. Federal Reserve will also announce a rate decision on... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/boc-holds-rates-says-economy-looks-better-than-expected-despite-tariffs-1765387427.html Wed, 10 Dec 2025 06:40:32 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-trade-with-china-probably-needs-to-be-smaller-ustr-s-greer-1764930623.html WASHINGTON, Reuters U.S. trade with China needs to be balanced and probably needs to be smaller, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Thursday, adding that he viewed a 25 drop in goods trade with China as heading in the right direction. The landing zone with China is our trade with them needs to be more balanced. It needs to probably be smaller so we39;re not so dependent on each other, and it needs to be in areas of nonsensitive goods, he told the American Growth Summit, a policy conference in Washington. Greer said U.S. President Donald Trump39;s policies were helping to achieve more balanced trade with China and the situation was better overall than at the start of Trump39;s second term in January. I don39;t think anyone wants to have a fullon economic conflict with China, and we39;re not having that, he said. He said the United States had many levers in its relationship with China, ranging from software to semiconductors, and that many allies were interested in taking coordinated action. But the decision right now is we want to have stability in this relationship, he said, adding that the United States also needed to boost its industrial production of strategic goods, including critical minerals. Ties with China were now stable, but Washington was monitoring the situation on a daily basis, he said. Greer39;s comments came a day after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China was poised to complete its commitments under a U.S.China trade... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/us-trade-with-china-probably-needs-to-be-smaller-ustr-s-greer-1764930623.html Fri, 05 Dec 2025 07:30:39 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-s-starmer-says-he-is-proud-of-budget-and-public-was-not-misled-1764599166.html Starmer expresses pride in last week39;s budget PM defends his finance minister, Rachel Reeves PM says his government did not mislead the public LONDON, Dec 1 Reuters British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday he was proud of last week39;s budget, defending not only what he described as the fair choices in it but also his finance minister, accused of misleading the public before the release of her fiscal plans. At a press conference at a neighbourhood centre in London, Starmer sought to convince the public that the budget which ducked an increase in income tax but raised taxes in other areas would help tackle child poverty, protect public services and offer a larger fiscal buffer to secure stability. But while he tried to move the focus onto future welfare reform and cutting business regulation, he was repeatedly questioned on whether finance minister Rachel Reeves had misled the public by presenting a fiscal black hole as being larger than that suggested by independent forecasts. I am proud ... I am proud that our public finances and our public services are moving in the right direction because we confronted reality, we took control of our future and Britain is now back on track, Starmer said to applause. REEVES STILL THE FOCUS OVER ALLEGATIONS SHE MISLED PUBLIC He said voters would start to feel the benefits of his Labour government39;s approach in the year ahead and see a country that no longer feels the burden of decline. But it was the position... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/uk-s-starmer-says-he-is-proud-of-budget-and-public-was-not-misled-1764599166.html Mon, 01 Dec 2025 04:00:54 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-african-key-rate-lowered-at-1st-decision-under-new-inflation-target-1763660455.html PRETORIA, Nov 20 Reuters South Africa39;s central bank cut its main lending rate by 25 basis points to 6.75 on Thursday at the first meeting since its inflation target was lowered, easing concerns that the new target would prevent it from cutting rates. The decision by members of the bank39;s Monetary Policy Committee was unanimous. Members agreed there was scope now to make the policy stance less restrictive, in the context of an improved inflation outlook, Governor Lesetja Kganyago told a news conference. The bank made small downward revisions to its inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Economists polled by Reuters had been divided on what Thursday39;s policy decision would be. Some thought the committee would take a cautious stance given its new 3 inflation target, while others thought there was room for a rate cut with inflation only slightly above target and within a 1percentagepoint tolerance band set by the finance minister. There has been a long list of positive developments since the last monetary policy meeting in September. South Africa was removed from a grey list of countries subject to increased monitoring for illicit money flows, its sovereign credit rating was upgraded by SP Global and its midyear budget review was wellreceived by investors. Government borrowing costs have fallen and the rand hit its best level since 2023 against the dollar. We remain on track to deliver 3 inflation over the medium term, Kganyago said. The tolerance band ...... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/s-african-key-rate-lowered-at-1st-decision-under-new-inflation-target-1763660455.html Thu, 20 Nov 2025 04:10:39 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-to-tighten-oversight-on-new-cars-exported-as-used-vehicles-1763121935.html BEIJING, Nov 14 Reuters China will strengthen oversight of usedcar exports and strictly control the export of new cars under the guise of used vehicles, according to a notice issued by the country39;s commerce ministry on Friday. From the start of next year, vehicles that apply to be exported less than 180 days after they were registered will be required to submit information needed for aftersales maintenance services, the Ministry of Commerce said. Used car exporters will also be more closely scrutinised by local commerce authorities for dishonest behaviour or for failures to provide quality assurance obligations, it said. Reuters reported in June that China39;s auto industry has inflated car sales for years through a grey market that registers new cars right off the assembly line and then ships them overseas as used vehicles. These socalled zeromileage cars have never been driven but were being exported as used to markets like Russia, Central Asia and the Middle East, and the practice was actively encouraged by regional Chinese governments. In June, the chairman of Chinese automaker Changan called for a crackdown on exports of zeromileage used cars, saying the practice could enormously damage Chinese brands39; image abroad. Reporting by Beijing Newsroom; Editing by Jan Harvey Source Reuters https://www.gurutrade.com/news/china-to-tighten-oversight-on-new-cars-exported-as-used-vehicles-1763121935.html Fri, 14 Nov 2025 12:30:50 +0200 https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bank-of-england-softens-stablecoin-stance-with-new-proposals-1762856294.html BoE proposes up to 60 of stablecoin assets may be invested in shortterm government debt Crypto industry had criticised bank for tougher stance than other countries Central bank sticks with caps on stablecoin holdings LONDON, Nov 10 Reuters The Bank of England on Monday proposed that issuers of widely used stablecoins be allowed to invest up to 60 of the assets backing them in government debt, part of a raft of new rules that suggest a softening in its approach to the sector. In its latest proposal for rules expected next year, the central bank however stuck to plans to cap the amount of stablecoins that individuals and businesses can hold, a move that sets it apart from European Union and U.S. regulators. Stablecoins are digital tokens designed to keep a constant value that are often pegged to fiat currency and backed by traditional assets such as government debt. The sector is booming, aided by the U.S. agreeing federal rules earlier this year. The crypto industry had sharply criticised a 2023 BoE proposal to force issuers to hold all of their assets in non interestbearing accounts with the central bank. The move, it said, would effectively preclude widespread UK adoption of stablecoins, which typically generate profits by investing assets. The BoE has now instead suggested 40 of the assets would need to be held with it. 39;WE39;VE LISTENED CAREFULLY TO FEEDBACK39; Today39;s proposals mark a pivotal step towards implementing the UK39;s stablecoin regime next... https://www.gurutrade.com/news/bank-of-england-softens-stablecoin-stance-with-new-proposals-1762856294.html Mon, 10 Nov 2025 07:00:45 +0200