- S&P and Nasdaq futures rise
- EU Stoxx dip slightly
- Weak PMIs, Spain election on Europe
- Markets priced for 25bp hikes by Fed and ECB
London, July 24 (Reuters) - European stocks slipped while U.S. stock futures rose, as weak EU business activity data and an inconclusive Spanish election result could not deter U.S. optimism that the end of central bank rate hikes is approaching.
German business activity contracted in July, increasing the likelihood of a recession in the second half of the year, the German Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed.
This together with news that no clear winner had emerged from Spain's snap election on Sunday piled onto a sombre mood that pulled European markets lower.
The euro slipped 0.25% against the dollar, government bond yields across the bloc edged lower while European stock markets dipped, with Spain's benchmark index down 0.65% in a clear underperformance.
Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures , rose 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, pointing to a positive open for Wall Street.
With the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan meeting this week, a note of caution underpinned the mood across global markets.
"The upcoming meetings of the FOMC (fed) and the ECB are anticipated to result in a 25 basis points increase in rates from both institutions, accompanied by hawkish forward guidance," said Bruno Schneller, a managing director at INVICO Asset Management.
"The decision for subsequent hikes in September hinges on both the direction of growth and forthcoming inflation data," Schneller said adding that a significant deceleration in U.S. economic GDP growth was likely and pointed to a pause in rate increases.
The contrarian dove, the Bank of Japan, meets on Friday and is thought likely to keep its super-loose policy intact.
Japan's Nikkei made a 1.2% gain, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.5%.
"The recent commodities rebound might make central bank decisions more difficult and possibly leave the door open to any commitments to end the rate hiking cycle," said Eddie Cheng, head of international multi-asset portfolio management at Allspring Global Investments.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 rose 0.5%, to $81.49 a barrel by 1130 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was at $77.51 a barrel, also up by 0.6%.
The benchmarks continued their fourth straight of week of gains last week, as supply is expected to tighten following OPEC+ cuts.
Agricultural commodity prices were also pushed higher last week by the war in Ukraine, after Russia withdrew from a U.N.-brokered safe sea corridor agreement for grain exports.
Rising commodity prices would add to concerns that some inflation would stay higher for longer, said Allspring's Cheng.
In China, the Politburo meeting this week could see more stimulus announced, though investors have so far been underwhelmed by Beijing's actions to shore up a sputtering post-pandemic recovery.
SPAIN UNDERPERFORMS
Spain faced political gridlock on Monday after the right-wing parties failed to clinch a decisive victory and no clear winner emerged in Sunday's national election, leaving Basque and Catalan small regional parties as potential kingmakers.
Investors reacted by pushing Spain's benchmark IBEX index down 0.65%.
"I don’t think it’s necessarily part of a darker outlook for Spain in the longer term, but just think at the moment, we're seeing that uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty," City Index strategist Fiona Cincotta said.
HOST OF EARNINGS
On top of central bank meetings and economic data, investors also braced for a slew of earnings from both sides of the Atlantic.
A who's who of major U.S. companies are reporting this week including Alphabet, Meta, Intel, Microsoft, GE, AT&T, Boeing, Exxon Mobil, McDonald's, Coca Cola, Ford and GM.
The results will have to be good to justify the S&P 500's earnings multiple of 20 and its gains of nearly 19% year-to-date.
"The performance of the current market can be attributed to the narrowest leadership seen in three decades," said INVICO Asset Management's Schneller, saying shares in just 31 companies accounted for the entire gain of the S&P 500 so far this year.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries were steady at around 3.79%, still below the recent spike high of 4.094%.
The U.S. dollar eased 0.56% to 141.05 yen , having jumped 1.3% on Friday following the report on the BOJ.
The euro was last down around 0.4% to $1.1082 while government bond yields across the euro area fell after the weak PMI data.
Reporting by Nell Mackenzie and Dhara Ranasinghe in London Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in SYDNEY and Amanda Cooper in London Editing by Peter Graff
Source: Reuters