Pepperstone - Analytics


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    The Daily Fix - 3/3/2016

    Posted on: 03 March 2016, by: Pepperstone Support, category: Market Review

    Capitulation is at risk of moving from one currency to another, and the 200d MA is coming up in more than one conversation:

    AUDUSD: Has taken out its 200d MA (0.7260), which was a massive resistance level and pretty good trend indicator.
    NZDUSD:Continues to find support at its 200d MA (0.6641); this also converges with its 55d (0.6635) and 100d (0.6644).
    EURGBP: Has a ways to go until its 200d MA (0.7303) but with a decisive break below levels tested on Wednesday near 0.7695

    Otherwise, G3 remained range-bound on realization of upcoming event risk: NFP, the ECB, BoJ and FOMC. Commodity FX and EM FX also continued to also watch oil prices, which is elaborated more on below. Big picture, WTI continues to test key resistance areas.

    In G10, both AUD and GBP were in focus in NY, with market volumes around 20% to 30% above normal. In contrast, JPY and EUR market volumes were around 30% to 40% lower than average.

    AUD was also the flow focus in early London with buyers of AUD seen via AUDUSD, EURAUD and AUDNZD most notably
    Investors continued to be little moved by US data or Fedspeak. Perhaps for now, only very strong data will move the needle as it challenges market pricing for the FOMC.
    ADP report rose by 214k, supporting Citi Economics’ forecast of 200k for Friday’s employment. USDJPY turned off the highs in the mid 114.00s after the data and never looked back. No testing 113.40/20.
    The Fed Beige Book included no groundbreaking revelations.

    Comparatively, release of the weekly DoE inventory report saw a clear reaction. Volumes in CAD, NOK, and RUB jumped on a massive build of 10.37mn barrels a day versus just 2.54mn expected. WTI dipped to 33.60 on this but recovered. Most likely, investors were considering storage capacity concerns into refinery maintenance season.

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