Posted on: 10 June 2016, by: Pepperstone Support, category: Market Review
US 10y yield have breached key support at 1.68/1.70%, in a pattern seen similar to than in the second half of 2012.
USDJPY remains well supported by the 200w MA at 105.98. If this level does go, and we then see a move below 105.00. MoF may have to ‘discover an excuse’ to intervene in the market after recent declarations before the G7 by Japanese officials about 500 pip one way moves being “disorderly” went unheeded.
Gold has been very bid but stopped short of $1290 highs seen this time in May. WTI has fallen back below $50.92, which should be watched on a weekly closing basis.
EURUSD looks to post a bearish key day reversal below 1.1355. The key day opens the pair up to re-test very big support at 1.1098-99 (recent low, channel base and 200d MA) and then 1.0825 again.
The biggest elephant in the room: UK referendum uncertainty is also weighing on the market. Betfair odds lean to Stay but GBP is not consoled by this given various open questions: if a Leave swing could remerge in the opinion polls; how will voter turnout shape out; how with ‘don’t know’ respondents vote; and generally, what left field developments could emerge ahead of the big vote.
Both GBPUSD and EURUSD traded heavy on Thursday. Now 1.1315 and 1.4468.
CAD didn’t budge on local data either (but it likely will on Friday’s employment report).