Posted on: 15 June 2016, by: Pepperstone Support, category: Market Review
Another round of UK referendum polls leaning to Leave left risk appetite broadly, soft.
In the latest TNS poll, Brexit lead widened to 7% from 2% previously, with Leave at 47% ( 4ppts) and Remain at 40% (-1ppt). Similar to recent polls, the share of undecided voters has fallen, now 13% versus 16% previously.
Phone and online surveys reporting a six-point lead, according to a pair of Guardian/ICM polls. Leave now enjoys a 53%-47% advantage when “don’t knows” are excluded. YouGov / The Times EU referendum puts Remain at 39%, Leave at 46%, and Don't Knows at 11%.
Building on last Monday’s poll gains, the Leave camp now leads among those definite to vote on referendum day, according to the ORB’s latest poll for the Telegraph. Leave has increased its vote share by two points to attract 49% of definite voters compared to Remain’s stagnant 48%.
For the first time ever, the German 10y yield traded and closed in negative territory. GBPUSD has trailed down to early April levels near 1.4100, while EURGBP continued to consolidate, failing any topside momentum.
GBP ignored the slightly softer inflation in May, with CPI unchanged from the previous month at 0.3% YoY, vs 0.4% consensus forecast. MoM numbers were weaker than expectations, but only modestly.