Posted on: 23 June 2016, by: Pepperstone Support, category: Market Review
It’s all about the Brexit vote today, with 2 polls coming in at rollover time confirming a swing back towards the Remain camp sparking a sharp rally in GBP pairs – seeing GBPUSD up another 150 pips.
The polls from YouGov and ComRes showed estimates of 51% remain to 49% leave and 48% remain to 42% leave, respectively. Along with the head to head battle, YouGov also posed the question of how risky or safe each option in the vote was. The majority of respondents said it was ‘safe’ to stay in the EU and ‘risky’ to leave the EU, which further buoyed sentiment.
This firming in the remain camp sets a bullish tone heading in to the vote, and Betfair has also increased the odds of remain to 78%.
As a reminder of the timing, polling begins at 9:00 MT4 server time today, with the last votes coming in at 00:00. There is a lock-out on hedge funds releasing exit-poll results until 00:00 on Friday morning, but after that information is free to divulge we may see hedge funds trying to sway sentiment in their favour after they have taken their positions in the markets. The count of votes will start once the polls close at 00:00 Friday, with the result expected to be fairly clear within about 6 hours of that time as the county by county votes are released.
There will be other news today, but the Brexit vote will be what everybody is focusing on. If you have positions open it might be worth checking your margin levels and position sizing as volatility is expected to be extreme today, especially on any early indication that a Brexit might occur.