07.03.2016 16:42 Oil advanced
The cost of oil futures rose significantly, reaching a three-month high, helped by improving global economic outlook and expectations of the market recovery.
Support for oil also have signs of supply reduction. On Friday, Baker Hughes reported that the number of the US oil rigs last week dropped to 392 units, the lowest level since 2009. Reducing the number of units is marked now the eleventh week in a row. At the moment, the number of installations of all types decreased by 69% from its peak in October 1609, 2014. Reducing the number of rigs typically is "bovine" signal to the oil.
Prospects of demand in the world oil market are also improving. On Friday it became known that in February the growth of employment in the United States resumed - the number of jobs outside agriculture rose by 242 000, and the growth of the previous two months was revised upward to 30 000. "Employment growth raises hopes that the growth and, consequently, demand for oil in the country, will continue to grow, "says Michael Poulsen, an analyst at Global Risk Management.
Meanwhile, the Commission on Trade in commodity futures is the United States said that hedge funds and other speculators last week closed bets on falling oil prices, the fastest pace in 10 months amid falling fears that prices could fall to $ 20 a barrel. In the short positions in WTI crude oil decreased by 15% ended March 1 week - up to 150 thousand 718 futures and options.. Positions on the growth of oil prices fell by 753 contracts, resulting in net long positions increased by 24 thousand. 886 contracts.
But analysts warn that the world oil market remains a significant oversupply, prices may well fall back. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley said that most of the recent rally was due to a decrease of the US dollar. "Thus, prices could continue to rally on the news, and the fall of the dollar, but the upward movement should be limited against the backdrop of large global inventories and hedge positions vendors," analysts said. According to the "bullish scenario," Morgan Stanley, oil prices could recover to an average of $ 90 per barrel in 2020, but Brent is more likely to reach $ 80. Meanwhile, according to the "bearish scenario" of oil will reach $ 65 by 2020.
During this week, traders will focus on the volume of stocks at the warehouses of wholesale trade data in the US, which could again show a slowdown in US production amid concerns about the glut of domestic stocks. Investors will also pay attention to the events surrounding the possible deal between OPEC and its member getters.
WTI for delivery in April climbed to $37.18 a barrel. Brent for April advanced to $40.22 a barrel.