The cost of oil futures rose modestly today, supported by optimistic report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), as well as the weakening of the US currency. However, analysts warn that the market is still a large surplus of oil.
Recall now the IEA raised its forecast for oil demand in the world in 2016 to 95.8 million barrels per day. The pace of oil demand growth this year will remain at 1.2 million b / d. At the same time the IEA believes that the freezing of the main producers of oil in the level of January will not give rapid effect to stabilize the market. "Factors that are supporting prices include possible actions for production stabilization of oil producers, reducing production in Iraq, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates, signs of declining production outside OPEC, maintaining expectations about the pace of global oil demand growth and weakening of the US dollar" - said the agency review.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs experts said that they had seen the signs began to restore the balance of supply and demand on the oil market. Against this background, the bank raised its forecast for oil prices in the II quarter of 2016 from US $ 20-40 per barrel to $ 25-45 per barrel. According to forecasts of Goldman Sachs analysts, the average price of oil in the 2 nd quarter could reach $ 35 per barrel. And in the 3rd and 4th quarters of the average price of "black gold" can reach a level of $ 40 per barrel. Interruptions in the supply of a number of countries, non-OPEC countries will help to reduce the excess supply of oil on the world market, says Goldman Sachs. Oil prices, which had previously reached 12-year lows, recover, according to the bank's analysts.
Another reason for price increases, according to traders, it is of interest to the oil market on the part of investment funds. "The funds have come to play on the increase, and the market seems to be going to stay above $ 40," - said the broker Liquidity Energy in New York, Pete Donovan.
Investors also await the publication of weekly data on the number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes, which will indicate the prospects for deals in the US energy market. For the week of 20 to 26 February rig count fell by eight to 392, dropping the eleventh week in a row. Now the figure is at its lowest level since December 4, 2009.
WTI for delivery in April rose to $38.59 a barrel. Brent for April rose to $40.42 a barrel.