The euro has appreciated considerably against the dollar, recouping almost all of the previously lost positions today. Experts point out that the reason for the growth of the EUR / USD has been a new wave of US currency sales. Investors also drew attention to the statements of representatives of the ECB. As it became known, a spokesman for the ECB Liikanen expects to maintain low interest rates for a long time. "The ECB Actions speak about a serious attitude to fulfill its obligations in the long term, the ECB will continue to take action until inflation reaches or at least closer to the target level in the medium term.", - Said the politician.
Meanwhile, Vice-President of the ECB Vitor Constancio said that "while there are limits to unconventional measures of the central bank to abandon the monetary policy is really dangerous when the fiscal and structural reforms can not contribute to the stimulation of growth." In addition, Constancio said if the ECB did not take measures to stimulate earlier, inflation in the euro zone would be one-third per cent negative in 2015 and would remain significantly negative in the course of this year. Constancio also said that two-thirds of growth in the euro-zone economy, which has been registered in the past two years, have been associated with the monetary policy of the Central Bank.
Meanwhile, people familiar with the matter, said that the Bundesbank was opposed yesterday's stimulus package the ECB measures. Bundesbank President Weidmann was particularly against the decision to increase the size of the bond purchase program. However, Weidmann could not vote at a meeting on Thursday because of the ECB's system of rotation. He was willing to discuss a more standard tools, such as changing rates and long-term loans, but probably would prefer not to do anything at all. Some of the 25 members of the Governing Council of the ECB were concerned that after several years of easy money policy, a fresh stimulus measures become less effective. 19 members of the ECB Governing Council voted last stimulus measures, 2 council members voted against (the head of the Central Bank of the Netherlands, and a member of the ECB executive board Lautenshleger Sabina), and four members were not allowed to vote.
The pound rose almost 150 pips against the dollar, reaching a peak on 16 February that was mainly due to the widespread weakening of the US currency. In focus were also statistics on Britain, which, however, did not prevent the pound to go up. Office for National Statistics reported that the volume of construction fell by 0.2 percent in January from December, as expected by economists. In general, the new work fell by 0.8 per cent, while repairs and maintenance increased by 0.8 percent. On an annual basis, construction output fell by 0.8 percent in January, but slower than the expected decline of 1.7 percent. There was a reduction of both new work and repair and maintenance, 0.4 percent and 1.4 percent respectively.
Meanwhile, the results of a quarterly survey by the Bank of England showed that British inflation expectations for the year ahead fell in February to its lowest level in more than 16 years. According to the new forecast, inflation in the next 12 months will be 1.8 percent, compared with 2 per cent, expected in November. This is the lowest inflation expectations since November 1999. Inflation expectations for two years ahead decreased to 2.1 percent from 2.3 percent. After five years, the inflation rate is projected to be 2.9 percent. Last result coincided with the November estimates.
Also today, the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) has lowered its forecast for economic growth in the United Kingdom, referring to the "global headwinds and uncertainty." Now BCC experts expect that the economy will grow by 2.2% this year, compared with a previous estimate of . 2.5% of BCC also cut its growth forecast for 2017 - to 2.3% from 2.5% in addition, the BCC said that the forecast economic expansion of 2.4% in 2018. Analysts.. It noted that the revised estimates was associated with weaker growth in most areas of the economy, reflecting the global slowdown.
The Canadian dollar rose significantly against the US dollar, supported by the growth of quotations of oil on the background of the report of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Recall now the IEA raised its forecast for oil demand in the world in 2016 to 95.8 million barrels per day. The pace of oil demand growth this year will remain at 1.2 million b / d. At the same time the IEA believes that the freezing of the main producers of oil in the level of January will not give rapid effect to stabilize the market. "Factors that are supporting prices include possible actions for production stabilization of oil producers, reducing production in Iraq, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates, signs of declining production outside OPEC, maintaining expectations about the pace of global oil demand growth and weakening of the US dollar" - said the agency review. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs experts said that they had seen the signs began to restore the balance of supply and demand on the oil market. Against this background, the bank raised its forecast for oil prices in the II quarter of 2016 from US $ 20-40 per barrel to $ 25-45 per barrel. According to forecasts of Goldman Sachs analysts, the average price of oil in the 2 nd quarter could reach $ 35 per barrel. And in the 3rd and 4th quarters of the average cost