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    GBP: Brexit opinion polls to continue to be pivotal -  Danske Matías Salord

    Analysts from Danske Bank warned that the Brexit referendum is in less than two weeks and affirmed that the pound is likely to remain volatile and exposed to downside risks.Key Quotes:“With less than two weeks to referendum day, it is no longer possible to register as a voter (the deadline was extended to midnight on Thursday as the website crashed on Tuesday) and both camps have intensified their campaigns. Recently, TV channels have aired several EU programmes including debates among leading politicians, which could potentially affect the referendum outcome as recent opinion polls have shown there are still many undecided voters.”“We plan to monitor the coming opinion polls closely for any new trends. Until last week, most opinion polls had ‘remain’ ahead (although not by much or necessarily statistical Significantly) (…)  At this stage, we cannot say what the outcome will be. Betfair’s implied probability of a Brexit is currently 27.4%.”“GBP risk premiums in the FX option market increased further this week while EUR/GBP was little changed following the past week’s repricing of Brexit risks. As such, opinion polls are likely to continue to be pivotal for pricing of GBP assets in coming weeks. We expect volatility to remain high and see risks skewed towards a weaker GBP ahead of the referendum as Brexit uncertainties are likely to remain intact.”“We expect the Bank of England meeting to be a non-event as the central bank has repeatedly indicated it is side-lined until after the referendum".  


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