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    Oil intermarket: bearish DXY before the Fed and the case for a "crude" awakening Ross J Burland

    Oil is leading the way on the downside in a supply risk-off market in respect to inter-related markets; notably the S&P 500 that has closed negative overnight as volatility edges higher.Volatility has increased while markets are starting to come to terms with the fact that the US economy doesn't warrant a rate hike this summer. However, June is still a live meeting and the Fed's funds rate contract actually picked up after Yellen's bullish speech last week from 149.72 to 151.37 having previously dropped from 153.22 on 30th May. This sentiment is driving the DXY that is highly correlated to the Fed's fund rate contract at the moment. As the DXY starts to stabilize after falling from end of March highs of 95.89, basing at 93.59, at the same time it is capping US crude oil's advance at $51.67. However, as we approach the Fed this week and without any hawkish Fed officials schedule to speak prior to the event, risks are tilted to the downside for the greenback that has already started to come off marginally at the start of this week. This could all be a supportive factor for oil that has made recent lows of $48.16 and on a 4hr hourly basis, the lows remain above that level adding to the case of a consolidation period for the black gold, or perhaps even making a case for a "crude" awakening.

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