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    Tracking US Q2 GDP on retail sales - Nomura Ross J Burland

    Analysts at Nomura reviewed the retail sales data in the US session overnight wgile tracking Q2 GDP.Key Quotes:"According to the US Census Bureau, retail sales increased by 0.5% m-o-m in May, modestly better than market expectations (Nomura: 0.3%, Consensus: 0.4%). Core retail sales, which excludes auto, gasoline, building material, and food services and drinking places sales, increased by 0.4% m-o-m in May (Nomura: 0.2%, Consensus: 0.3%) following an upwardly revised 1.0% m-o-m increase in April (previously reported as 0.9% m-o-m). The better-than-expected May core retail sales and the upward revision to the April number suggest better consumer activity in Q2 than we previously anticipated.Taking the new data into account, we revised up our Q2 GDP tracking estimate 0.2pp to 2.4% from 2.2%. Q1 GDP tracking was unchanged at 1.3% as the March revisions were modest. The details of the report showed mixed performance across sectors. Motor vehicles and parts sales increased modestly by 0.5% m-o-m, as the pace of vehicle sales in May was little changed from April. Building materials sales declined by 1.8% m-o-m, the third consecutive month of decline. We continue to see weakness in this category, as construction activity has ratcheted down in recent months.It appears that much of the demand was pulled forward into the warmer winter months and the sector is still working through some negative payback. On the other categories, electronics ( 0.3%), food and beverages (0.5%), health and personal care (0.6%), and clothing (0.8%) sales were all up modestly while sales of electronics (-0.1%) and miscellaneous items (-1.2%) were down over the month. General merchandise sales fell 0.3% in May with department store activity declining sharply by 1.2%, but some of the weakness was made up in the non-store retailers sector that posted a nice 1.3% increase. Last, eating and drinking places were up 0.8%, a solid performance and a positive sign that discretionary spending remains on an upward trend."


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