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    NZD/USD: awaiting catlyst in the Fed, breaking key 50 4hr sma Ross J Burland

    NZD/USD dropped below the 200 sma overnight in a continuation of the bearish reversal of late May's rally, but has based in early Asia at 0.6977.NZD/USD has fallout off its perch on the 0.71 handle and has now succumbed to further downside pressures, losing the 070 handle and trading below the 200 sma on the 1hr sticks that is currently at 0.6997. The current theme is risk-off while volatility has picked up due to the pending EU referendum and concerns mounting over a Brexit, while at the same time exposing commodities to the downside where the kiwi has been caught up within. Oil, for instance, lost the $48 handle in recent trade in a continuation of the downside since losing the $50 handle as the US dollar picks up a bid. We now await the GDT data to follow the shift ahead and the Fed as the next major catalysts for the pair. While the Fed is not expected to act, markets will monitor the rhetoric, looking for indication of whether the Fed are able to hike at all this summer and before the elections later in the year. NZD/USD levelsNZD/USD remains in a daily bullish trend having recovered from 0.6674 lows, but has penetrated the April and May highs to the downside exposing the mid-way point of the 0.69 handle. The 50 sma on the 4hr sticks is located at 0.7005 and this was taken out in recent trade. however, the key level to watch on the downside is located with the 200 sma on the same time frame and within the vicinity of early June highs of 0.6830.

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