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    EUR/USD Forecast: mute around the lows, as the FED looms

    The EUR/USD trades uneventfully around the 1.1220 level, as the financial world entered wait-and-see mode ahead of the result of the US Federal Reserve economic policy meeting. Asian and European equities are trading modestly higher after being under strong selling pressure ever since the week started, but this is just a pause. Speculative interest is waiting, just in case the FED actually raise rates, something hardly likely. An on-hold decision could trigger some temporal relief among stocks' traders, but it won't take long until they begin to worry again over the Brexit and global growth.

    In Europe, the release of the Trade Balance for April showed a surplus of €27.5bn, above market's expectations, but below previous €28.6bn. The pair has barely reacted to the news, as it's all about the FED today.
    The 4 hours chart for the EUR/USD pair shows that the risk remains towards the downside, given that the price is holding below all of its moving averages, whilst the technical indicators have lost upward strength within negative territory. This week low in the 1.1190 region is the immediate support, with a downward acceleration below the level, exposing the 1.1130/40 region, where it stands the daily ascendant trend line coming from November 2015. Should the price close the day below it on an extremely hawkish FED, the pair can extend its decline down to the 1.1000 figure during the following sessions.
    The immediate resistance comes at 1.1235, as in the daily chart, the 20 and the 100 DMAs converge around it. Above it, 1.1290 comes next, whilst beyond this last the rally can extend up to 1.1335.

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