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    BOC's Poloz: Alberta wildfires will cut y/y Q2 GDP by about 1.0-1.25% Ivan Delgado

    BOC's Poloz is crossing the wiires, via Reuters, noting that growth forecast numbers will change in july's MPR, while adding that Alberta wildfires will cut annualized Q2 GDP growth by about 1.0-1.25 percentage points.Additional headlines- Q2 and Q3 growth set to be "very choppy"; Q2 growth likely to be flat or slightly negative, Q3 to show outsized recovery- That type of quarterly growth profile could yield average growth over Q2 and Q3 quite close to bank's April forecast- Confident we are making real progress"; global economy retains capacity to disappoint, but is gradually healing- Growth forecast numbers will change in July's MPR; but it seems core forecast narratives around US economy, Canada's exports remain intact- Extended period of oil prices at recent levels unlikely to lead to greater investment spending in Canadian oil patch- Highly uncertain what price level will rebalance oil market on sustained basis; oil prices will not be returning to old highs in foreseeable future- Adjustment to low oil prices will take "another couple of years" to sort itself out; non-resource economy moving unevenly toward full capacity- Q2 looking better for US; don't think recent jobs stumble represents significant downshift in growth- Balance of risks around US outlook now appears to be reasonably close to bank's April forecast- Export recovery very uneven, but several categories encouraging; many export sectors operating near capacity limits- Financial stability risks remain a concern, especially in housing sector, but should shrink as economy strengthens- Alberta wildfires will cut annualized q2 GDP growth by about 1.0-1.25 percentage points (in May bank forecast hit of around 1.25 percentage points)


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