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    US: May CPI Preview - Nomura Dhwani Mehta

    Research analysts at Nomura published a preview on the US CPI report due to be reported in the NA session this Thursday.Key Quotes:“We expect headline CPI to increase by 0.239% m-o-m ( 1.036% y-o-y) in May. Incoming information on inflation implies another solid advance in headline CPI but at a slower pace than the 0.408% gain in the previous month.”“Crude oil prices rebounded further in May, pushing up retail gasoline prices.”“The increase on a seasonally adjusted basis should be more moderate in the CPI as an increase in gasoline prices is typical in May when the summer driving season begins. In addition, the recent weakness in consumer food prices, which was evident in the May PPI report, probably contributed to the expected deceleration in headline CPI inflation.”“Excluding food and energy, we forecast that core CPI inflation was essentially unchanged at 0.195% m-o-m ( 2.227% y-o-y) in May from 0.195% in the previous month.”“Core goods prices will likely show a moderate increase over the month after dropping in two consecutive months, as import prices of consumer goods were up in May.”“However, we think that inflation of core service prices decelerated slightly over the month. Our CPI NSA forecast is 240.269.”


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