TenkoFX - Analytics


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    EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1182

    Risk aversion returned to markets with a vengeance, with attention flipping to Brexit risks, and fueled by BOJ's decision to maintain its economic policy on-hold. The EU inflation data for May came in a mostly as expected, although the monthly reading ticked up to 0.4% from previous 0.0%, also beating expectations of a 0.3% advance. The EUR/USD pair plummeted to 1.1162 ahead of the release of US data, as dollar benefited from the risk environment, in spite of FED's soft tone.
    In the US, macroeconomic data was generally disappointing, with unemployment claims up to 277K in the week ending June 10, and inflation coming in below expectations: on a month to month comparison, it rose 0.2% against expectations of 0.3%, whilst the year-on-year figure resulted at 1.0% against expectations of an unchanged reading of 1.1%. Core figures were a bit more encouraging, matching expectations. Finally, the Philly FED manufacturing index printed 4.7, much better than the previous -1.8 or the 0.0 expected.

    The EUR/SD pair is bouncing modestly from the mentioned low, but remains below the 1.1200 level, with the advancing looking so far corrective, as in the 1 hour chart, the technical indicators have barely bounced from oversold territory, but the price remains well below its 20 and 100 SMAs, both in the 1.1245 region. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators hold within bearish territory, with limited downward strength, but the price is also developing below all of its moving averages, supporting some further declines, particularly on a break below 1.1145, where a daily ascendant trend line coming from November 2015 offers an immediate support.
    Support levels: 1.1145 1.1110 1.1080
    Resistance levels: 1.1200 1.1245 1.1290

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