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    USD/JPY points to 112.00 in 3-month – Danske Bank Pablo Piovano

    Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Morten Helt expects the pair to tick higher to the 112.00 area in a 3-month horizon.Key Quotes“In our previous forecast we anticipated a bounce in USD/JPY driven by an announcement of coordinated fiscal and monetary easing package. This did not materialise and we have consequently revised our USD/JPY forecast lower for the coming 12M”.“In our main scenario, we expect the UK to remain in the EU and expect USD/JPY to bounce on this outcome. We target 108 in 1M (112). On a 3M horizon we look for further support to the cross stemming from relative rates (BoJ rate cut in July and Fed hike in September). We target 112 in 3M (115)”.“On a 6-12M horizon, we expect USD/JPY to stabilise as further portfolio outflows out of Japan (driven by negative interest rates in Japan) will help to underpin USD/JPY and thereby counter the underlying support for JPY stemming from fundamental flows and valuations”.“In this respect, we also note that the combination of fiscal stimulus (less domestic savings) and a higher oil price is likely to weigh on Japan’s current account balance in coming years. We target USD/JPY at 112 in 6-12M”.


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