TenkoFX - Analytics

    TenkoFX

    415.75 7.25/10
    68% of positive reviews
    Real

    Brexit: winners and losers - Nomura Ross J Burland

    Analysts at Nomura offered a winners and losers profile after a Brexit.Key Quotes:"Although Brexit is not our base case, JPY and CHF would face stronger appreciation pressures if this tail risk scenario materialises.""We would expect USD/JPY to test 100 and the responses Japanese policy makers would be important.""FX intervention above 100 may be difficult, but market concerns over the intervention would rise. Intervention risk would be higher under 100 as well and verbal intervention could stabilise USD/JPY at around 100-101.""The SNB would also consider FX intervention, as the Bank said it is ready to react as Brexit night unfolds.""EUR would likely depreciate against CHF to 1.05 or below, which would encourage SNB to intervene in FX markets.""NOK, SEK and EUR would be likely losers in the G10 FX space. Risk-off movements have been EUR positive until early this year, but the correlation has been weakening. EUR is likely losing its safe-haven status ahead of the European risk event.""As a result, expected negative risk off reactions to Brexit outcome would weaken EUR against USD. SEK and NOK would underperform to EUR.""Under the usual circumstance, negative risk-off movements would depreciate commodity currencies (AUD, NZD and CAD) more than EUR.""However, concerns over the negative impact on European economy and politics would hurt EUR, and it is less clear whether EUR appreciates against AUD.""We would expect NOK to underperform other commodity currencies under a Brexit scenario."Extra reading: Brexit trade: a look beyond sterling and get back to basics - FXStreet


    To leave a comment you must or Join us


    By visiting our website and services, you agree to the conditions of use of cookies. Learn more
    I agree