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    US data preview: negative outlooks - Nomura Ross J Burland

    Analysts at Nomura offered a preview of the US data coming up.Key Quotes:"Initial jobless claims: Initial jobless claims picked up in the week ending 11 June, to 277k, after steadying in the 260-270k range for several weeks. The increase in the claims data is somewhat noteworthy, given that employment growth slowed notably in May. Further increases in the claims data could be a signal that involuntary layoffs are on the rise and an early indication that US labor market conditions are beginning to deteriorate. We will keep a close eye on this weekly indicator to see whether jobless claims applications trend higher or return to a lower range. Consensus expects 270k in the week ending 18 June.New home sales: New home sales surged in April, increasing at a pace last seen in January 2008. We have been relatively optimistic about the housing sector, but the acceleration seen in April was well above our expectations. The NAHB housing market index remained steady at an elevated level in May, and mortgage applications continue to grow at a solid pace. However, given the high bar set in April, it appears that the new home market is bound for a pullback in May. To that end, we expect a 9.5% decline, to an annualized 560k (Consensus: -9.5% to an annualized 560k). Although this marks a slowdown on a month-over-month basis, this pace of sales would still be above levels seen earlier in the year. We note that the new home sales series tends to be volatile, so it wouldn't be surprising to see some downward revision to the prior months’ strong gains."

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