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    UK goes to polls to decide its fate in Europe - SocGen Sandeep Kanihama

    Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that the UK Polls open at 7:00 am and close at 10:00pm.Key Quotes“Two polls are expected to be released on Thursday evening after the polls close, with YouGov’s poll of a pre-selected group of people thought to be ‘representative’ of the electorate set to be announced on Sky New.The first results start to trickle through in the early morning on Friday, and attention will be paid especially to the more marginal constituencies. YouGov’s map shows what we might expect. Scotland and London are mostly pretty Europhile, and the East of England is more Euro sceptic than the West. I’m tempted to handicap results by where they are relative to theM1 motorwaySunderland will be among the early results, and ‘should’ show a small majority in favour of leaving the EU. A vote to remain would cause concern in the ‘Brexit’ camp. Soon after, Wandsworth in London is expected to show a sizeable majority in favour of staying and a close result would likewise, ring alarm bells for the ‘remain’ camp. Merthyr Tydfil at around 1:30 am will be the first really swing voting areas to announce.My personal focus will be on Broxtowe in Nottinghamshire. Almost equidistant between the Irish and North Seas, it’s about as far from Newcastle to the North as Southampton to the South. In other words, it’s in the middle of England even if it’s in the Southern part of the UK. The votes of these fine people will be released at around 4:00 am and unless the result really is as close as the opinion polls suggest, sometime thereafter the political analysts might feel able to speculate more confidently about the eventual outcome – though that will still take some time to become public (it will be announced by the chief counting officer, Jenny Watson, at Manchester Town Hall around breakfast time).”

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