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EUR/USD inter-markets: the pair might be done with its near-term technical bounce Haresh Menghani

Following the Brexit led sharp fall to over 3-month low levels, a slight improvement in global risk sentiment assisted the EUR/USD pair to recover and move back around 200-day SMA near 1.1100 region. The prevalent risk-on sentiment is depicted by a slide in the Volatility Index (VIX) over the past couple of days and is reaffirmed by a sharp rebound in equity markets across the globe. Adding to this, fading expectations of an imminent Fed rate-hike, as depicted by CME Group's Fed Fund futures, has led to a near-term corrective move for the US Dollar and is seen assisting the pair to continue with its post-Brexit rebound. The current Fed fund futures are now pricing-in a negligible probability of a rate-hike, at-least till the FOMC meeting in November.Further recovery, however, seems unlikely in the backdrop of uncertainty around the economic and political implication of last week's historic UK-EU referendum. Moreover, markets also suspect that other Euro-zone member countries might also come-up with similar referendums that raise questions over the existence of the European Union. Market concerns are reflected by a tepid bounce in German Bunds and US 10-year treasury yields, which remain within striking distance of recent lows when the so-called Brexit triggered turmoil in global financial markets.Summing it all, the EUR/USD pair might be done with its post-Brexit technical bounce, primarily led by short-covering, and could resume its near-term weakening trend.



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