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USD/JPY inter-market: Global uncertainty to continue driving Yen higher Haresh Menghani

The USD/JPY pair's post-Brexit bounce from 99.00 region to last week's high level of 103.40 level got sold into and the pair is now seen extending its slide further below 102.00 handle to currently trade around the mid-point of 101.00-102.00 handles. A fresh bout of global risk-aversion trade on Tuesday, as depicted by a sudden spurt in the Volatility Index (VIX), has been the key factor leading to the pair's latest leg of downslide. The global risk-off sentiment is further supported by slide in US 10-year treasury yields, which also seems to discount a negligible prospects of a further Fed rate-hike decision in 2016. According to CME Group's Fed Fund futures markets are now pricing-in less than 20% probability of next Fed rate-hike action, at-least until Feb. 2017.Going forward, investors will turn their focus toward some important fundamental triggers from the US that includes - FOMC meeting minutes of Wednesday and NFP data on Friday, which would determine the near-term direction for the US Dollar.Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen has been gaining traction on safe-haven flows amid global economic uncertainty led by the historic UK-EU referendum that voted for a 'Brexit'. Even from technical perspective last week's minor recovery within a narrow trading band, when taken into consideration with the pair's Brexit-led sharp slide, could be categorized as consolidation phase before the pair resumed its previous weakening trend. Hence, a follow through selling below post-Brexit lows support near 101.50-40 region now seems to pave way for a break below 101.00 level towards retesting the very important 100.00 psychological level.



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