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The Day Ahead - Monday 29th June 2015


For what feels like the 50th day in a row, Greece is the clear top story in the markets today.

 The final weekend before the Tuesday deadline did not see a deal come closer, but in fact there are many signs of it appearing further away. On Monday, Greek banks are going to remain closed and many people are queuing outside banks and ATMs trying to get their money.

A daily limit of EUR60 has been imposed per person at ATMs, and it is reported only 40% of ATMs still have cash available. Other capital controls including the banning of overseas transfers are also now in place.

PM Tsipras has announced that bank deposits of the Greek population are fully secured, but that hasn’t done enough to ease concerns, and people need money to live their daily lives. With banks looking like they may stay closed until 7th July, after the referendum, we can expect more queues outside ATMs as people try to get their EUR60 for the day.

The Euro opened starkly lower on Monday morning at 1.1005 compared to Friday’s close of 1.1162 against the US dollar.  Euro trade across the Asian session is likely to be light as traders will be reluctant to take larger positions until the next day of drama across the Eurozone.

Outside of the Euro crisis, we have a very quiet start to the week on the news front. There are no high impact news releases due but Japanese retail sales are to be released at 02:50 GMT 3. The forecast is 2.1% against a previous 4.9% figure.

Expect the vast majority of the market’s attention to linger over Greece for today and for the foreseeable future until we get an outcome, one way or another.

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