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    WEEKLY WRAP: FOMC and Greece could make this a week to remember

    A second succesive week of gaps as markets awake to a 'no' vote from Greece. Fireworks can be exepcted in this week of politically driven sentiment as the standoff between Grrce and Troika continues. 

     







    US Dollar: Nonfarm data last Thursday was, well, not too bad, not too great. 
    NFP fell slightly short of the 231k consensus at 223k but not too bad as long as it remains above the 200k mark. Unemployment fell further to 5.3% whilst average hourly earnings (wage inflation) remained flat at 0%. When you consider that last month's 2.3% print was the highest since 2011 then to retain this level of momentum is in fact a good thing. JOLTS job openings, Yellen's favourite, will be in trader's radars but the highlight will almost certainly be the FOMC minutes. I retain the view that FED will keep rates on hold this year, which is even more likely with the current turmoil surrounding Grece and the Eurozone. 

    Long Bias:
    USDCAD

    Australian Dollar: The main focus this week is tomorrow’s Cash rate decision and RBA statement. Before the weekend the Aussie plummeted to 6-year low after poor retail sales, with uncertainty from Greece adding further pressure during the London session. The 'no' vote from Greece has since seen the Aussie gap down further to its lowest since May 2009, with an intraday low of 0.74613.

    Short Bias:
    AUDCAD

    British Pound: British Pound continues its ascent against Commodity Currencies, whilst the net positioning of large speculators on GBP futures reduces its short exposure. The FTSE100 has gapped down further to a 25-week low, fully embracing the risk-off environment from Greece, dragged down in particular by Industrial Metals, Aerospace & Defence and Technology. 

    Long Bias:
    GBPCAD
    GBPAUD
    GBPNZD

    Short Bias:
    FTSE100


    Canadian DollarCADJPY is resting precariously above 96.63 support but, judging from near-term bearish momentum, a downside break of this key level is likely as JPY benefits from safe haven flows. Brent and WTI also added to CAD demise as an increased rig count points to a rising oil supply, hence weaker prices. Monday is an important day for future monetary policy from Bank of Canada as we have Ivey Purchase Managers Index and Bank of Canada business outlook survey. Whlist BoC have retained a neutral stance regarding monetary policy (and for rates to remain on hold) recent data is adding further pressure to a dovish bias ahead. 

    Short Bias:
    CADJPY 

    Euro: With the 'no' vote firmly secured by the PM the attention will now shift back to the negotiation table. The Greek PM now things he has leverage for debt relief with a no vote, so in a stronger position to get better terms but early comments from Germany suggests the Troika will stand pat and try to force them to 'take or leave' the previous proposals. This is likely to keep volatility and uncertainly high on the Euro crosses, stocks and bond markets. However it is worth reiterating that a 'no' vote does not guarantee a Greek exit from the Eurozone, which could see Euro bounce higher if EMY remain intact. Timing this of course is near impossible as this is all about the politics between the two sides and is likely to drag on for many week's beyond this week. 

    New Zealand Dollar: The Kiwi Dollar was dealt a double blow last week from plumetting GDT prices and business confidence turning negative for the first time since 2011. GDT prices accelerated their decline with -5.9% vs -1.3% previously being it's lowest reading since April. This week is relatively quiet but NZIER busines confidence will gain extra attention following last week's negative outlook. 
    NZDAUD bounced off of the July'12 trendline but the bearish momentum seen since the 'near-parity' miss makes it likely we should break below this trendline in due course. 

    Short Bias:
    NZDJPY
    NZDAUD



     


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