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    USDCAD headed for 1.28 and 1.30 highs

    Weaker Oil Prices and a stronger USD have helped to support USDCAD in recent session, which now presents a more bullish technical outlook leading up to Trade Balance data and FOMC 

    Oil prices add to Canadian Dollar weakness
    Both WTI and Brent have fallen to 13 week lows and back within $50-$60 a barrel range since breaking out of their sideways ranges cared out over previous weeks. The oil slide, which began with reports of increased oil rigs last week (more supply) was dealt another blow by the Greek 'no' vote and by recent gyrations in the Chinese stock market, resulting in a risk-off environment. In turn this has added extra pressure to the Canadian Dollar, helping to support USDCAD in the process. 

    USDCAD appears posied to target the March '15 highs
    The potential swing low suggested by the Bullish Hammer two weeks ago maaged to hold above the 61.8% retracement, before gathering momentum and and braking above the 1.2562 high last week to confirm a bullish trend resumption. Assuming we have now seen the end of the correction from 1.283 highs at the 1.192 low, USDCAD should now break to new highs as it resumes the trend. 

    Over the medium term 1.30 is a logical target, but slightly above at 1.3062 is the 2008 highs where I would expect profit taking to see price edge lower. The last time we traded at these highs volatility was extremely high and was tuck in a sideways range; We have to be on the guard for this again being such a historic level.




    For now the near-term target is the 1.283 highs  
    - The break above 1.256 (last week's highs) may provide bullish opportunities upon any retracements.
    - The moving averages on W1, D1 and H4 are all in sequence and fanning out to show bullish momentum across multiple timeframes
    - H4 trades within the upper half of a bullish channel, so the inner trend line may also provide support for a shallow pullback.
    - However as price is just below a confluence of resistance (Monthly R1 and Weekly R1) then a retracement could be likely.


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