Monday saw the Aussie gap lower surrounding Greece, only this time is was a fresh 6-year low. On one hand this is a surprise as you would think the potential for GRExit has little impact on Australian investors. However the more likely cause is down to a stronger USD (from safe haven flows) and outflows of higher-risk currencies such as CAD, AUD and NZD.
Moving forward, the RBA will be happy with recent price developments and is yet another reason as to why they are unlikely to lower the cash rate today, or for the foreseeable future.
I have long thought RBA will wait for FED to raise rates to help lower the local exchange rate, whilst allowing weakening commodity prices and terms of trade to also do the dirty work. Their patience appears to have paid off at current levels and technically appears set for a run down towards 73c.
- The downside has begun to accelerate and resembles an impulsive wave structure (fancy name for a trend).
- We now trade within a potential bearish Wedge which suggests 73c could be achieved over the coming weeks.
- The pullback seen yesterday has tested and respected breakout to fresh 6-year lows so may act as an area to fade into.
- However rates on hold today with a carbon copy statement could send the Aussie higher, in which case I would then consider the 0.757-0.760 resistance for an eventual run towards 0.7425, 0.735 and 0.730.
AUDUSD technicals suggests a run towards 73c is on the cards
Technically and fundamentally the Australian Dollar appears set for a run down towards 76c, which is why I would welcome any rally towards 76c with open arms.