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    Economic slowdown 'could persist for some time'

    A slowdown in the rate of global economic recovery may be a factor that market analysts will need to consider for the foreseeable future.

     

    The outlook for global economic recovery has clouded further today (15 October 2015), following the publication of a new poll.

     

    An examination of the forward-looking views of almost 300 economists was carried out by Reuters, with the results pointing towards the likelihood that a sustained period of deflation may now push back economic growth.

     

    HSBC economist James Pomeroy told Reuters: "As has become a familiar trend over the past two years, the latest revisions to our inflation forecasts for both 2015 and 2016 are downwards for the developed world."

     

    According to the respondents to this latest poll, the chances of the US Federal Reserve taking positive action to lift US interest rates will not improve until markets have returned to a stable pattern of growth, and this is a situation that has become increasingly unlikely in the foreseeable future.

     

    Overall, the poll determined that the economic positions of those nations that have demonstrated strong growth in recent quarters - particularly the US and the UK - could now come under threat from growing instability in Asia, and in China in particular.

     

    "Seven years into the US recovery, this is frustrating for the Federal Reserve, which is still itching to raise interest rates," Mr Pomeroy stated.

     

    "For now though, the US is once again feeling the brunt of the latest round of the deflationary 'pass the parcel', which has been plaguing the global economy since 2008."

     

    A growing sense of unease is now surrounding the global economic outlook and this is lending itself to increased caution within financial markets.

     

    The opening of the fourth quarter has so far proven far more positive for markets than the negativity and upheaval that typified much of the third three months of the year. However, with growing economic pressures now likely, it remains to be seen if this welcome upward trend can be maintained.


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