ThinkForex - Analytics


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    AUDUSD likely to remain above 72c for the foreseeable future

    Unless we see dovish minutes form RBA today (unlikely) and particularly strong US data (also unlikely) then Aussie is likely to remain in the choppy 0.72-0.738 range for a little longer.

    Price action below the 0.738 suggests a Double Top formation could be in the making. Of course this could easily morph into Triple Top, pennant, or nothing at all. So we require a clear break below 0.720 to confirm any topping pattern and assume we are back in line with the August '14 bearish trendline. 

    We could also take a break above 0.738 as a more bullish signal but this is not without its issues. If you take a look at the volatile sideways range around July-August this year you'll notice that we are trading within this area now. Even if we are to break above 0.738-40 I would not be convinced it was not a 'fake-out' unless we cleared the 0.745 highs. 

    To stand any chance of a break above 0.745 we would need to see a hawkish RBA minutes (not very likely), accompanied with particularly weak manufacturing data on Friday from US. What may also help the Greenback (and add pressure on AUD in the process) is we do finally get more details and confirmation of ECB modifying their QE plan. The meeting occurs on Thursday and manufacturing is on Friday, so until then we may have to be patient and accept that the 0.72-0.738 range is a likely place for Aussie to stay. 

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