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    AUD stares into the abyss

    AUDUSD can be one of many proxies for risk today (or lack of). So whether you want to trade NZD, AUD crosses or indices, the binary outcome could be the same if we see strong or weak numbers from China today in either direction.




    The Australian Dollar remains in an undeniably bearish trend, having printed fresh multi-year lows last week and making little effort to climb back up. However it is common for markets to behave in a shell-shocked state following a turbulent Friday (or two weeks, to be precise) so I doubt many were expecting a sympathy rally yesterday.

    This issue is also exacerbated when we all await a highly important data set from China today, which includes GDP, industrial production and retail sales. 




    GDP is expected to tick lower to 6.8% from 6.9% on an annualized basis whilst monthly also tick down to 1.7% from 1.8% previously. Whilst 'official' data is highly assumed to be window dressed the declining trend cannot be missed. So one way of looking at this data set is if we see a 0.2% or more decline, then things could be even worse... Either way this is expected to weigh on stocks, AUD and NZD crosses and help support JPY, CHF and Gold.

    The same can be said for industrial production which finds itself in a steady decline, albeit the occasional blip higher. 

    So for today's data set if we hit expectations then this could be enough to keep AUD above the lows and even provide a helping hand for global equities. But unless we see significantly higher numbers from China today I doubt it will be enough to see significant (and sustainable) turnaround in investor sentiment, which is likely to be weighed down by oil prices and the impending supply of Iranian oil. 

     

     

     


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