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    The week ahead: 29th Jan 2015

    A snapshot of events and potential catalysts for major crosses to aid your analysis next week. 

    Market Themes to monitor:




    United States: Nononfarms payroll may struggle to keep up the momentum of Jauary's 292k, but as long as it continues to print over the 200k threshold then taders will be satisfied. Unemployment remains stuck at an admirable 5% but if recent data from the initial and continuous jobless cliams is anything to go by we may see this tick hier of the coming month/s. I have seen plenty of charts overlaying the S&P500 with the employment claims figures to demonstrate it leads the downtun of the stock market, so definately a trend to continue watching over the coming months. 




    China:  Markets are heavily tuned into anything and everything PMI related, so expect no exceptions with China's Caixin PMI read. Globally PMI data, particularly manufacturing, is either declining or on the cusp of crossing below the 'contraction' phase, so we could see some decent moves if the China print continues its' demise. 





    Europe: Europen sentiment, which had recently been on an apwards slop is beginning to wane. Inflation continues to battle with deflation, which is a possible explanation for the change in sentiment but also likely recent talk from Draghi to provide more stimulus in March. This brings us nicely onto ECB's policy meeting on Wednesday and, of course, more PMI data! 





    Australia: RBA's first meeting of the year could more lively than traders had assumed at the end of 2015. Glenn Stevens had told traders to 'chill out' regarding monetary policy which AUD bulls took to be a hawkish signal as ever. That said, inflation data had come in on target with trimmed mean hovering just above the 2% lower band but it should be remembered that Central Banks tend to move to anticipate moves, not wait until it’s too late. A lot of things have passed since then, and with global growth data continuing to look grim, we should not take a rate-hold for granted. Potential reasons to hold on are the retail sales and business confidence indicators later in the week, which closes off on Friday with the monetary policy statement to fill in any gas from the initial release on Tuesday. 






    CanadaBank of Canada have been one of the more upbeat Central Banks in recent weeks (which isn;t saying much). However employment data and Ivey PMI, which are considered leading indicators to the economy, could test this outlook is they come in weak enough. That said, if Oil begins to firm a base and we see good data then CADJPY long and USDCAD could be the places to visit for opportunities.


    New Zealand: Employment data and GDT prices will be the highlight for Kiwi Crosses. With RBNZ reminding markets that may may indeed cut again, ad JPY going to -0.1% interst rates (with potential to cut further) then any weakness here will surely put NZD crosses under further pressure. 


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