The run towards 0.80 still seems very much in play, with near-term momentum favouring a revisit to the 0.7896 highs. Whilst a deeper retracement is certainly feasible before the 0.80 target is hit, only a break below 0.7520 invalidates the bias for a run to 0.80.
View previous analysis: EURGBP targets 80 above 75
Since the prior analysis we saw an almost perfect retracement towards the 0.752 breakout level, before a base formed and subsequent rally followed. I have highlighted a loosely respected bullish channel although I am aware price has traded outside of both bands. However I still consider the lines to remain points of interest as they are behaving as parallel 'internal' trendline, where price continues its trend whilst respecting the line as both support and resistance.
Assuming the lower internal trendline remains valid for the foreseeable future, then we have likely seen a prominent swing low at 0.7695. This level saw an aggressive burst up which has recently been followed by a potential (and small) bullish pennant. However as we have no way of knowing if this will resume the trend soon or morph into a more complex flag or triangle, I am open to a revisit to the 0.7755 support, weekly pivot or lower trendline before forming a base. In some way a larger retracement on intraday timeframe would be preferred as this would allow for more potential upside from a reward/risk perspective.
- Initial target is the 0.7880-96 zone (Weekly R1 to swing high)
- Profit taking is likely here initially but I still prefer odds of a break to new highs
- Only a break below the 0.7695 swing low would invalidate near-term analysis
- A break below 0.7520 invalidates the bias for a run to 0.80