RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) Govenor Glenn Stevens speaks at the ASIC annual forum at 4:15pm today. It will be interesting to see if he will begin to jawbone the currency. Governor Dabelle last week started to jawbone the Australian dollar. He stated, "Most central banks want lower currencies, to push up inflation or create a bit more activity… I don’t think we’re any different from that". What stands out from that comment is that the RBA is not comfortable where the Australian Dollar is currently sitting and they want it to be at the 70c levels.
Key events in the US
We have some high impact news out of the US, mainly Durable Good Orders and Final GDP q/q. The manufacturing sector seems to nave turned the corner in the US and economists expect durable goods excluding transportation orders to increase by 0.3% in February (following a 1.7% increase in the prior month). However, taking into account slowdowns in nondefense and defense aircraft and parts orders, top line durable goods orders should decline by 2.2% in February.
In regards to Q4 GDP, economists expect the figure to be revised down to 0.7% from 1.0% in its third estimate. This revision is driven by larger-than-expected trade deficit and lower-than-assumed inventory investment.
Levels in the Australian Dollar
The bears seem to be in control around the 76c handle as this level was tested overnight. Pivot levels to consider is the R1 level at 0.7612 and the S1 level at 0.7554, with the main pivot level being 0.7589.