The Australian Dollar gapped higher by 1.1% at market open today, rising in tandem with increased investor confidence as Brexit polls suggested ‘remain’ is clawing back votes.
Currently trading sat 0.7440 the Dollar appears set to break to ta 7-day high and target the 75c handle.
We do not expect anything significant from tomorrow’s RBA minutes, which leaves Brexit and Yellen speech as the more likely events to drive the Australian Dollar this week.
Technically we may have seen a swing low last Thursday. Aussie bears tried yet failed to break below 73c on following the dovish FOMC meeting, marking what appears to be a prominent swing low. Today’s low has already respected the 74c handle before testing a 3-session high so the bulls appear to be in control for now.
If the UK does remain within the EU then we assume a risk-on vibe will dominate markets, to send the Australian Dollar higher against the greenback and in particular against the Yen.
Whilst global sentiment will likely be dictated by Friday’s referendum but we will also be keeping a close eye on comments from Fed chair Lady Yellen this week. We were not too surprised to see the FED lower their ‘dot plot’ projections as this now seems the standard practice. But hearing former FED hawk Jim Bullard admit to being the most sheepish FED member with only one rate hike before 2018, then any dovish comment from Yellen could send the greenback tumbling lower.
|Resistance 3:||0.7716||03/05 high|
|Resistance 2:||0.7585||61.8% retracement, Monthly R1|
|Resistance 1:||0.7500||Round number, 50% retracement, 09/06 high|
|Support 1:||0.7365||Round number, post-gap low|
|Support 2:||0.7365||Monthly Pivot|
|Support 3:||0.7300||Round number, hammer low|